2011 Preakness Stakes Free Picks

136th Preakness Stakes on NBC
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Post time approx. 6:05 PM ET

Long shot Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and jockey John Velazquez  will try to take the next step to becoming racing’s first Triple Crown winner since 1978 when they team up for the 136th running of the Preakness Stakes at historic Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore this Saturday afternoon.

Just two weeks ago, Velazquez, made the switch to Animal Kingdom after regular jock Robby Albarado took a spill in a race in late April, and closed from fifth position to cash winning tickets at 20-1 odds.

Now the duo will attempt to snatch the second leg of the famed Triple Crown before heading to the daunting Belmont Stakes to claim the coveted title that only 11 horses have managed since 1919.

But first, they will have to get by a full field of 14 other contenders – including Derby favorite Dialed In—all of whom will be chasing a $1 million purse around the 1-3/16 mile course.

The 2011 field won’t include another Derby contender and early favorite, Uncle Mo, who was scratched from the Running of the Roses the day before the race, due to a yet-to-be diagnosed internal issue. Trainer Todd Pletcher has chosen to skip the race at Pimlico, and it’s not yet been decide if Mo will show at the Belmont.

Much like the Derby, this year’s Preakness Stakes are up for grabs. So let’s take a look at the top three horses in this year’s competition.

Post 10: Dialed In (9-2) – The son of Mineshaft figures to have much better go around at the Preakness than his eight-place finish at the Derby, and cannot afford to drop too far back in the early stages if he wants to finish first at the wire. The Nick Zito trainee is the only horse in the field to win two major prep races—the Holy Bull Stakes, and the Florida Derby, but will face a difficult task breaking from post 10. No horse has won from that spot since Real Quiet did in it 1998.

Post 11: Animal Kingdom (2-1) – Graham Motion’s morning line favorite has drawn the dreaded post 11. Only two Preakness winners have ever broke from the 11th position. However, it should be of  little concern for the 3-year old colt that won the Derby from an outside draw, coming from behind a slow pace. There should be no problems in this race as the early fractions are expected to be much faster. Since 1984, only three Preakness Stakes’ winners did not run in the Kentucky Derby. However, as favorable as it is for Derby winners to make the trip to Pimlico, getting a horse to peak twice in a two-week period is still a dauntless task.

Post 9: Mucho Macho Man (6-1) – Funny Cide was the last to win the 2003 Preakness from the ninth postposition, but if any contender in this year’s field has the best chance to repeat that feat, it’s the son of Macho Uno who narrowly missed taking second in this year’s Derby. Katherine Ritvo’s trainee was edged out by Nehro at the 1/16th pole, but the shorter distance of the Preakness will likely work to his advantage. He’s never finished worse than third in five two-turn races, and has placed third or better eight times in nine career starts.

The rest of the field is as follows (postpositions and odds): 1. Astrology (15-1) - Has hit the board in all seven career races, 2. Norman Asbjornson (30-1) –Has won or placed in three of his last four starts, 3. King Congie (20-1) –Finished first in three of his last four races, 4. Flashpoint (20-1) – Won the Hutcheson Stakes, but placed a distant fourth in the Florida Derby, 5. Shackleford (12-1) – Has finished in the top five in each of his last five races, winning twice and placing once, 6. Sway Away (15-1) – Has finished fourth or better in four of five races, and is the son of 2005 Preakness Stakes winner Afleet Alex, 7. Midnight Interlude (15-1) –Won the Santa Anita Derby but finished 16th in the Kentucky Derby, 8. Dance City (12-1) –Has finished first in his last three starts, 12. Isn’t He Perfect (30-1) –Has won just twice in 12 starts, 13. Concealed Identity (30-1) –Finished first in the Frederico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico earlier this month, 14. Concealed Identity (30-1) –Finished third in the Santa Anita Derby.

My pick is Mucho Macho Man. This horse is peaking at the right time and looked strong in the Kentucky Derby. Rajiv Maragh has done a good job since getting the mount after regular rider Eibar Coa was injured in a riding accident at Gulfstream Park in February. The tandem won the $300,000 Risen Star Stakes by 1 1/2 lengths at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans in their first race, and then placed third in the Louisiana Derby behind Nehro and Pants on Fire who will not compete in this weekend’s Preakness Stakes.

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