Florida State Seminoles 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Florida State 2008 Record: (9-4, 5-3)
Florida State 2008 Bowl: Champs Sports Bowl vs. Wisconsin (W 42-13)
Florida State Coach: Bobby Bowden (309-91-4 at Florida State, 382-123-4 overall)
Florida State Offensive Coordinator: Jimbo Fisher
Florida State Defensive Coordinator: Mickey Andrews
Florida State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Jermaine Thomas, RB, 482 yards
• Passing: Christian Ponder, QB, 2,006 yards
• Receiving: Taiwan Easterling, WR, 322 yards
• Tackles: Dekoda Watson, LB, 46
• Sacks: Kevin McNeil, DE, 4.0
• Interceptions: Jamie Robinson, S, 1; Patrick Robinson, CB, 1; Dekoda Watson, LB; 1

Notable Florida State Returning Players: OT Andrew Datko, G Rodney Hudson, C Ryan McMahon, TE Caz Piurowski, OT Zebrie Sanders, G David Spurlock, DT Kendrick Stewart, DT Budd Thacker

Florida State Key Losses: DE Everette Brown, WR Greg Carr, CB Tony Carter, DE Neefy Moffett, LB Derek Nicholson, WR Preston Parker, S Myron Rolle, RB Antone Smith, LB Toddrick Verdell

2008 was a rebound year of sorts for the Seminoles. After three consecutive disappointing years, FSU finished with a 9-4 record, including a blowout bowl win. The Seminoles also posted their first winning conference record since 2005. Much like rival Miami, I’m loathe to pronounce that the Noles are ‘back’ but there sure is a lot of talent on hand. As legendary head coach Bobby Bowden’s career winds down, can Florida State make one more run at a conference championship?

The offense is the biggest reason for optimism. After years of frustration since the departure of Heisman Trophy winner Chris Weinke, the Noles finally fielded a consistently dangerous offense in 2008. Junior Christian Ponder was the triggerman of a unit which averaged nearly 33 points per game and he turned out to be a multidimensional threat, passing for over 2,000 yards and 14 touchdowns while running for over 400 yards and 4 scores. Ponder does need to do a better job protecting the football after throwing 13 picks last fall but he should be much improved this season, especially with a more experienced line. All five starters return from a unit which didn’t boast an upperclassman in the entire two deep last season! After performing surprisingly well under fire for such an inexperienced unit, I expect nothing less than the best line in the conference despite still being one of the youngest. With a stronger line comes an improved rushing attack and sophomore Jermaine Thomas is expected to take over this fall as the primary ball carrier. Thomas averaged seven yards a carry last fall and scored 3 touchdowns so he could be a gamebreaker. The major concern for the Seminoles is that their receivers seem to continue to live up to the school’s unfortunate ‘Criminoles’ nickname. After having way too many suspensions and arrests, I’m not sure who is going to step up because sophomore Taiwan Easterling, the team’s leading returnee after Preston Parker was kicked off the team for his 3 rd DUI since arriving at FSU, ruptured his Achilles tendon in the offseason and is a big question mark entering the year. On top of that, veteran Corey Surrency was denied a final year of eligibility by the NCAA, leaving sophomore Bert Reed as the team’s top option after catching a meager 23 passes, 3 of which were touchdowns, in 2008. So experience is a major concern and Ponder might have to use his legs extensively once more this fall. However, I still expect FSU to have a strong rushing game and that should give Ponder time to develop a rapport with his receivers. Expect Florida State to once more field a fairly strong offense.

The defense was very good last season, outside of allowing 45 points to archrival Florida in the season finale. Florida State fielded the conference’s toughest pass defense and held six opponents to 17 points or less. This fall, there are some big shoes to fill as only five starters return. Up front, the Noles could start all seniors, though only two starters are back and no one had more than a single sack. They will have trouble replacing NFL 2 nd round draft pick Everrette Brown’s 13.5 sacks. At linebacker, senior Dekoda Watson is the team’s top tackler back from 2008 after making 46 stops. However, I’m more confident in the Noles ability to replace their losses here than on the line because Bowden has recruited far better at linebacker and there is some experience from last season. That’s a far cry from the line, where the top backups will include at least two freshmen! That said, I still think that FSU will field a solid but unspectacular run defense this fall. In the secondary, seniors Jamie and Patrick Robinson combined for 53 tackles and 2 interceptions last fall and are the only two returning starters. With three year starting safety Myron Rolle off to Oxford to study medicine, there are some gaps to be filled. Surprisingly, FSU only picked off nine passes last year, a low number that I can’t imagine them repeating. While they’ll definitely allow more yards per game than 2008, I think that the Noles might have more big play potential this season. Overall, this has all of the makings of a solid defense. However, for a group which could start eight seniors there is a serious lack of experience. I expect the Seminoles’ defense to be balanced, not really particularly strong nor weak against both the pass and run, and allow somewhere in the neighborhood of twenty points per game.

The schedule is fairly challenging. The non-conference portion features in state rivals Florida and South Florida along with a cross-country jaunt to visit a very good BYU team. The conference run is also fairly difficult as they recommence their tradition of opening the season against Miami. Their Coastal draw of Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Miami is perhaps the toughest in the entire league! Furthermore, four of their final six games are on the road. Overall, Florida State is an improved team from last year with a bunch of talented young players who are much better after a year’s experience. However, the Seminoles face a tough schedule and the pressure of producing one more championship team before Bowden calls it quits. Unfortunately, Florida State will need to pull a few upsets to compete for the Atlantic division and certainly will not be a national player. With their schedule, I can’t see the Seminoles winning more than eight or nine games this season.

Florida State Big Games: Sept. 7th vs. Miami, Sept. 26th vs. South Florida, Oct. 10th vs. Georgia Tech, Oct. 22nd @ UNC, Oct. 31st vs. NC State, Nov. 7th @ Clemson, Nov. 14th @ Wake, Nov. 28th @ Florida

Florida State’s Strength:

One thing that could make this a special year for Florida State is the fact that they return a quarterback. Christian Ponder was certainly not a great signal caller last year. He threw 13 interceptions and 14 touchdowns and only completed 55.7 percent of his passes. Those are not good numbers, but at least the Seminoles have an experienced quarterback who they should be able to rely on during the 2009 campaign. The extremely young offensive line is now a year older and that experience should be a huge plus to Ponder and running back Jermaine Thomas. Thomas rushed for 482 yards a year ago backing up the now departed Antone Smith. Thomas is a big play rusher and averaged seven yards per carry in a reserve role last year. If he can keep that up, the FSU offense could be surprisingly effective.

Florida State’s Weakness:

Over the last few years it has been the defense that has kept Florida State as a respectable football team. However, there are some big losses on the defensive end of the field. Florida State will reload, but the unit will not be the same without defensive ends Everette Brown and Neefy Moffett, linebackers Derek Nicholson and Toddrick Verdell and Tony Carter and Myron Rolle in the secondary. It is not a cause for huge concern since there are a slew of youngsters who are more than capable to step in and fill the void, but it might take a little while for the unit to be as strong as it was last year.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Seminoles:

The big question is how long will it take for the defense to turn into the same unit that ranked 15 th in the nation in total defense last year? Linebacker Dekoda Watson will be a star and defensive end Kevin McNeil, while not at the same level of Brown, can cause some havoc in the backfield. Last year Florida State tallied three sacks per game and that really helped out the secondary. The front four will have to get pressure on the opposing quarterback or the new look secondary will have a hard time stopping the pass.

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