Illinois Fighting Illini 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Illinois 2008 Record: (5-7, 3-5)
Illinois 2008 Bowl: none
Illinois Coach: Ron Zook (18-30 at Illinois, 41-44 overall)
Offensive Coordinator: Mike Schultz
Illinois Defensive Coordinator: Dan Disch and Curt Mallory
Illinois Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Juice Williams, QB, 719 yards
• Passing: Juice Williams, QB, 3,173 yards
• Receiving: Arrelious Benn, WR, 1,055 yards
• Tackles: Martez Wilson, LB, 73
• Sacks: Martez Wilson, LB, 3.0
• Interceptions: Donsay Hardeman, S, 1; Dere Hicks, CB, 1

Notable Illinois Returning Players: OT Jeff Allen, G Jon Asamoah, S Travon Bellamy, DT Josh Brent, G Eric Brock, WR Jeff Cumberland, RB Daniel Dufrene, K Matt Eller, TE Michael Hoomanawanui, DE Doug Pilcher

Illinois Key Losses: CB Vontae Davis, DE Will Davis, OT Xavier Fulton, WR Will Judson, DT David Lindquist, C Ryan McDonald, LB Brit Miller, LB Rodney Pittman, DE Derek Walker

Am I crazy picking a team that went 5-7 last year to finish 2nd in the Big Ten? Well, perhaps but remember that this is also a team that went 9-4 and played in the Rose Bowl two years ago. The only way to try and explain Illinois’ shocking year last fall was that the players expected things to come easy to them and they never recovered when they didn’t. This year, there’s a new attitude at camp and the Illini appear hungry to prove that last year was a fluke. Furthermore, Ron Zook has really recruited well and there is a myriad of talent on both sides of the ball. Was 2007’s Rose Bowl run a flash in the pan or will the Illini prove that they have staying power this fall?

On offense, there is so much to like about Illinois. Starting at quarterback, senior Juice Williams enters his 4th season and he has improved his passing numbers noticeably in each of the previous three years. Williams threw for nearly 3,200 yards and 22 touchdowns last fall while rushing for over 700 yards and 5 scores, though he did throw 16 picks. Expect him to cut down on mistakes and have an enormous season. The Illini also have the league’s best backup quarterback in junior Eddie McGee, who has played well when called upon in the past two seasons.

Another reason to be very optimistic about Illinois this fall is their exceptional group of receivers, highlighted by junior Rejus Benn. Benn caught 67 passes for 1,050 yards last year and 3 touchdowns and is widely considered one of the best receivers in the country and a future 1st round pick. He will be joined by Florida transfer Jarred Fayson, who is finally eligible after impressing everyone since his arrival last year, and senior Jeff Cumberland, who led the team in touchdown receptions last fall and is an enormous target at 6’6”. Furthermore, senior tight end Mike Hoomanawanui had 25 catches last fall and is one of the conference’s tight ends. Overall, I think that the Fightin’ Illini have a receiving corps to match up with any in the country and there should be an air raid attack every time they play this season.

The good news doesn’t just sit with the passing game. There are three solid tailbacks that have a lot of playing time and should provide good balance for the offense. Sophomore Jason Ford scored 8 touchdowns in 2008 and fellow soph Mikel LeShoure was excellent in camp. I haven’t even mentioned senior Daniel Dufrene, who ran for over 600 yards last fall and caught 30 passes! The offensive line also looks solid with three returning starters after performing well last season. Overall, I believe that this is the best offense in the entire conference. Opponents have to account for four legitimate threats through the air on every play while defending a solid run game on top of the very real threat of Williams running. With so many ways to beat teams, Illinois is one of the most dangerous offenses in America.

On the other hand, I’m admittedly a little concerned about their defense after giving up 26 points per game last fall and losing three of their top four tacklers. Their big problem in allowing 26 points per game was that turnovers put them in bad position and they also had trouble against the run. This fall, their defensive line looks somewhat improved to me because I think they’ll have a much better set of defensive tackles. While I don’t expect much of a pass rush, the Illini are definitely deeper up the middle and should improve on the ground.

I also like their run defense to be better for one other big reason: Junior linebacker Martez Wilson, who is a beast. Wilson will be flanked by a pair of talented but inexperienced young players as he moves to middle linebacker and I expect him to have a huge year. The secondary also appears to be quite solid despite losing 1st round pick Vontae Davis a year early to the NFL draft. Three upperclassmen starters return to a very deep group that should actually be improved over 2009 because despite Davis’ high draft status, he had a tough year. I think that Illinois’ biggest question on defense is going to be their pass rush and I expect improved results this fall.

The Illini have to be given a lot of credit for their schedule, which features Missouri, Fresno State and a visit to defending Big East champ Cincinnati. Zook appears to have bought into the theory that Big Ten teams have struggled in bowl games due to a long layoff and the Fresno State and Cincy games will take place after the end of the Big Ten season. That makes the Illini one of only two conference teams to finish their regular season in December. Before that, their conference run is not going to be easy as they open up at Ohio State before hosting Penn State and Michigan State in back to back weeks! The Illini also host Michigan and rival Northwestern this fall and avoid Iowa and Wisconsin thanks to the rotating schedule. Illinois’ schedule is tough but manageable.

The best word to describe this team is potential. Illinois came tantalizingly close to realizing their potential in 2007 with a Rose Bowl run and an upset of a #1 team for the first time in school history. After a disappointing 2008, I firmly believe that the time is now for Zook to move the Illini into the conference’s upper echelon in his 5th season. Illinois’ offense is going to bury some teams this year with a 4th year mobile starter at quarterback, the league’s best wide receivers and an improved rushing attack. While their defense is at best going to be average to good, I expect Juice and company to simply outscore some teams this year. Illinois is going to look a lot like a top tier Big XII team from last season and could ride their exceptional offense all the way to a BCS bowl. Needless to say, I expect very big things from the Fighting Illini in 2009 and if they can emerge from their opening conference stretch with a 2-1 mark then a major bowl berth is all but assured.

Illinois Big Games: Sept. 5th vs. Missouri( St. Louis), Sept. 26th @ OSU, Oct. 3rd vs. PSU, Oct. 10th vs. MSU, Oct. 31st vs. Michigan, Nov. 7th @ Minnesota, Nov. 14th vs. Northwestern, Nov. 27th @ Cincinnati

Illinois’ Strength:

There is no reason for this not to be the best offense in the Big Ten. Quarterback Juice Williams threw for 3,173 yards last year and rushed for 719 more. When he is healthy and making good decisions, Williams is an extremely dynamic playmaker who can make things happen. And now that Arrelious Benn has another year of experience, he should be one of the best receivers in the nation. After tallying 1,055 yards as a sophomore, Benn is in for a huge campaign. The offensive line returns three starters and that should be enough to keep the offense ticking. It should also create plenty of running room for Daniel Dufrene. If he can get more rushing yards than Williams, Illinois’ offense will be the most dynamic in the Big Ten.

Illinois’ Weakness:

The defense was not as good as it could have been last year. And now arguably the best four defenders on the team are gone. Corner Vontae Davis is gone as is linebacker Brit Miller and ends Will Davis and Derek Walker. Without those four why would anyone believe the Illini defense could be any better than it was last year? Miller was the heart and soul of the linebacker corps last year and now that job falls to Martez Wilson. Wilson did a decent job on the outside in 2008, but now he will be asked to move into the middle. The spring went very well for him, but can he keep up the tradition of Illinois linebackers? Dere Hicks is an experienced corner, but Tavon Wilson has some big shoes to fill if the Illini secondary wants to keep the opposition from throwing over 200 yards per game again this season.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Fighting Illini:

Coach Zook needs to turn his great recruiting classes into results. It worked in 2007, but it certainly did not in 2008. Before losing starts to become a habit in Champaign, again, results have to start happening. The goal for this season should be getting back to a bowl game, but it could be much better for the Illini if the offense can stay healthy and the defense can replace those big losses.

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