LSU Tigers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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LSU 2008 Record: (8-5, 3-5)
LSU 2008 Bowl: Chick-fil-A Bowl vs. Georgia Tech (W 38-3)
LSU Coach: Les Miles (42-11 at LSU, 70-32 overall)
LSU Offensive Coordinator: Gary Crowton
LSU Defensive Coordinator: John Chavis
LSU Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Charles Scott, RB, 1,174 yards
• Passing: Jarrett Lee, QB, 1,873 yards
• Receiving: Brandon LaFell, WR, 929 yards
• Tackles: Harry Coleman, S, 71
• Sacks: Rahim Alem, DE, 8.0
• Interceptions: Chris Hawkins, 3

Notable LSU Returning Players: DT Charles Alexander, OT Ciron Black, WR Richard Dickson, CB Jai Eugene, CB Chris Hawkins, S Chad Jones, S Danny McCray, LB Perry Riley, LB Kelvin Sheppard, RB Keiland Williams

LSU Key Losses: LB Darry Beckwith, WR Demetrius Byrd, K Colt David, DT Marlon Favorite, C Brett Helms, DT Ricky Jean-Francois, DE Tyson Jackson, G Herman Johnson, FB Quinn Johnson, DE Tremaine Johnson, DE Kirston Pittman, S Curtis Taylor

After you win a National Title and lose 26 seniors like LSU did last fall, it is more than reasonable to expect a drop off. I mean, that’s a ton of talent to lose! However, none of the Tiger faithful expected a 7-5 regular season that included losses to Ole Miss and Arkansas and there were some unhappy folks in Baton Rouge last December. Things ended on a bright note as the Tigers drilled a highly thought of Georgia Tech squad in their home town in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl and all is right in Tigerland once more. As usual, expectations are sky high for Les Miles’ team to compete for the conference title. Can the young Tigers rebound from their worst finish in the past seven seasons?

The offense scored over 30 points per game last fall, so you wouldn’t expect them to have been the problem for LSU, right? Well, unfortunately quarterback Jarrett Lee threw 16 interceptions, seven of which were returned for touchdowns! That’s pretty brutal. Towards the end of the season, freshman Jordan Jefferson took over and was named the Chik-Fil-A Bowl Offensive MVP. Jefferson is an extremely elusive athlete who is the unquestioned starter as a 19 year old sophomore and could have a breakout season. It will help him that most of the Tigers’ leading receivers are back, led by seniors Brandon LaFell and Richard Dickson, who combined for 94 catches and 13 touchdowns last season. I expect Jefferson to have a strong year and he shouldn’t turn the ball over anywhere near as much as Lee did last fall. Just remember, he’s young and there will probably be a few hiccups.

Jefferson will be able to rely on a powerful running game, led by the SEC’s best tailback, senior Charles Scott. Scott’s 1175 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns earned him 1st team All-SEC honors last season and he literally runs players over. There is great depth behind him as well and I expect an excellent running game in Death Valley this fall. The offensive line brings back three starters and should be one of the best in the conference. Overall, I expect LSU to score just as many points as last season but avoid team-killing turnovers. This is one of the SEC’s best units.

Defensively, the Tigers had a few head-scratchers last season. Five teams scored more than 30 points and Georgia and Florida both broke 50! Part of this was poor field position thanks to the offense’s inability to protect the ball but the other part was a porous pass defense. To fix things, Miles brought in former Tennessee defensive coordinator John Chavis, who has a great track record of fielding outstanding defenses. I have to give the Mad Hatter credit for a great hire and with seven of the top nine tacklers back, LSU should be in line for a solid defensive year.

Beginning in the secondary, I have to say that I’m really impressed with the talent level. Three starters are back and sophomore Patrick Peterson has superstar written all over him after playing extensively as a true freshman last year. There’s a ton of experience and this is the best secondary in the SEC that doesn’t wear Gator blue. Three upperclassmen starters return and the team’s leading tackler for 2008, senior Harry Coleman, moves up from safety to further bolster a strong unit at linebacker. The only concern is the defensive line, which returns a single starter. Luckily, senior Rahim Alem was a 1st team All-SEC selection last fall after making 8 sacks and should be a force rushing the passer. While the Tigers lost two NFL draft picks along the line, there are few teams in the country who recruit talented D-Linemen like LSU does and I will be very surprised if this year’s unit falls below expectations. Miles hasn’t had a defense allow more than 110 rush yards per game during his tenure and I expect that streak to continue this fall with Chavis in charge. LSU has one of the SEC’s best defenses.

The schedule is not going to be easy for the Tigers. They have to travel to Georgia while hosting rival Florida from the East. Furthermore, the face road trips to both Ole Miss and Alabama! That means that they have to play the conference’s top four teams and three of those games will be away from the very friendly confines of Death Valley! The good news is that while their non-conference schedule is an upgrade over recent years with a trip to Washington, the Huskies are coming off of a winless season and no one expects LSU to run into a lot of trouble with a rebuilding UW team. Still, LSU has the toughest schedule of all of the conference championship contenders.

Overall, LSU is an extremely talented team that should give opposing offenses fits. Furthermore, Jefferson might be the most mobile quarterback in the conference. However, they have to play all of the conference’s major challengers and only favorite Florida comes to Baton Rouge. While I think that the Tigers are just as good as anyone in the SEC, I think their schedule will be too much for them to overcome this year to win the SEC West. However, nine or ten wins is a strong likelihood this season.

LSU Big Games: Sept. 5th @ Washington, Oct. 3rd @ Georgia, Oct. 10th vs. Florida, Nov. 7th @ Alabama, Nov. 21st @ Ole Miss, Nov. 28th vs. Arkansas

LSU’s Strength:

The good news is that the offense has found a star in running back Charles Scott. The 5-11 senior rushed for 1,174 yards and 18 touchdowns last year and could be in for a huge senior campaign. The offensive line lost some key components, but the surprise return of tackle Ciron Black should make the Tigers line extremely dominating. The equally surprising return of wide receiver Brandon LaFell means the offense could actually be good…if the Tigers can find a quarterback. On the other side of the ball it is the back seven that will keep LSU in every game. Safety Harry Coleman will be a superstar and linebackers Perry Riley and Kelvin Sheppard can replace Darry Beckwith’s production without much of a problem.

LSU’s Weakness:

Jarrett Lee is still around, but he threw 16 interceptions last year and every time the ball went in the air it seemed like a pick six was a feasible possibility. The answer is sophomore Jordan Jefferson. Jefferson, a 6-4, 209 pound St. Rose, Louisiana native, had some good moments late last season when he completed 36 of 73 passes for four touchdowns. More importantly, Jefferson only threw a single interception. The possibilities are there for Jefferson to have a huge year, but he is still inexperienced and he might have to do more than Lee did last season…especially if the Tigers defensive front line struggles to replace Tyson Jackson, Ricky Jean-Francois, Marlon Favorite and Kirston Pittman. And how can they not take a step back replacing those four?

Our Prediction for the 2009 Tigers:

If the front four does have trouble getting into the backfield, the entire defense will not be as effective as they were last season. If that is the case, LSU’s offense has a little more work to do and that means Jefferson has to be effective. Last year was a rebuilding year and this season should go much better for Coach Les Miles. The offense cannot be much worse and the Tigers will be a formidable foe if they can add an offense to their always stifling defense.

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