California vs USC | Predictions

NCAA Football Free Pick – Saturday, October 16, 2010

vs.

California (3-2, 1-1) at USC (4-2, 1-2), FSN, 3:30 P.M. ET

The G-Bears will be looking to avenge the 30-3 thumping they got at home last season by the Trojans, while USC will want to right the ship after dropping two consecutive games on last-second field goals.

Both teams is seeking its second conference win with Cal trying to get into the hunt and USC attempting to show they are still relevant in the conference, even if they can’t play in the postseason.

Cal rebounded with a 35-7 blowout win over UCLA to end a two game losing skid, as the defense was once again impressive. The G-Bears have allowed 10 points or less in each of their games with the exception of the 52 points they surrendered to Nevada.

Offensively, they are putting up an average of nearly 36 PPG and are ranked 22nd in rushing behind a solid, game in and game out effort from RB Shane Vereen, who is the Golden Bears biggest source of offense, running for 577 yards and eight TDs while also catching two.

This could be trouble for the USC defense that has been allowing an average of 35 PPG, and will have to deal with Cal’s Vereen.

The Trojan’s Offense hasn’t been an issue so far, as they rank in the top 30 in the country in passing, rushing, and points (35.7 PPG). QB, Matt Barkley, has quietly had a very good season, throwing for 1,517 yards and 15 TDs while the run game has been supported by the duo of Allen Bradford who has run for 533 yards and four TDs, and Marc Tyler with 359 yards and five TDs.

The consistent ground attack that averages six yards per carry has made it easier for Barkley to throw the ball.

So far, the road has not treated Cal well, losing both games away from home against Nevada and Arizona. If USC can contain the run, they should have a good chance to win.

Prediction: USC – Bet Now

Odds: California: +2.5 – USC: -2.5 – Over/Under: 53.5

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Team records:

• California: 3-2 SU, 3-1 ATS
• Southern Cal: 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS

California Golden Bears most recently:

• When playing in October are 6-4
• When playing on grass are 5-5
• After outgaining opponent are 5-5
• When playing within the conference are 6-4

USC Trojans most recently:

• When playing in October are 7-3
• When playing on grass are 6-4
• After outgaining opponent are 7-3
• When playing within the conference are 5-5

A few betting trends to consider:

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of California’s last 5 games when playing Southern Cal
• California is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
• California is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
• California is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
• Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing California
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Cal’s last 5 games when playing California
• Southern Cal is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Cal’s last 5 games at home

Next up:

• California home to Arizona State, Saturday, October 23
• Southern Cal home to Oregon, Saturday, October 30