Preakness Stakes Predictions & Picks

135th Preakness Stakes on NBC
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Post time approx. 6:05 PM ET

Super Saver and jockey Calvin Borel will try to take the next step to becoming racing’s first Triple Crown winner since 1978 when they team up for the 135th running of the Preakness Stakes at historic Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore this Saturday afternoon.

Borel piloted the three-year old bay colt to a win at Churchill Downs on May 1st, and will try and win the second leg of the famed Triple Crown before heading to the daunting Belmont Stakes to claim the coveted title that only 11 horses have managed since 1919.

But first he will have to get by a field of 11 other horses — two short of the maximum — chasing a $1 million purse around the 1-3/16 mile course.

The 2010 field won’t include Derby contenders Nobel’s Promise or Ice Box whose trainers have chosen to skip the race at Pimlico and head straight to Belmont, but will include three Derby favorites that are listed at single digit betting odds.

Super Saver 5-2 / 8th position: Super Saver, who splashed his way to a two-and-a-half length victory in the 20-horse field on a sloppy track at Churchill, figures to run much closer to the pace than he did in the Kentucky Derby. Because the son of Maria’s Mon has the speed to go to the lead and the mind to sit back off a fast pace, he will be doubly dangerous this Saturday especially with three time Derby winner Calvin Borel on board.

Lookin At Lucky 4-1 / 7th position: The three-year-old colt finished a disappointing sixth in the Derby earlier this month and trainer Bob Baffert has opted to replace regular rider Garrett Gomez with Martin Garcia for the Preakness. Garcia has familiarity with the horse from working Lucky in Southern California. Baffert and Garcia have emerged as a potent combination during the past year, teaming up for 51 wins from 212 mounts. So this should be a solid move.

Paddy O’Prado 3-1 / 10th position: Paddy O’Prado has won one grade-three race on the turf, but has become one to look at after coming from mid-pack to threaten Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver in the stretch, only to be nipped at the wire by a late-running Ice Box for second. This horse has the goods to spoil this year’s fun. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Dale Romans trainee neck and neck at the wire.

The rest of the field is as follows (post positions and odds): 1. Aikenite, 20-1, 2. Schoolyard Dreams, 15-1, 3. Pleasant Prince, 20-1, 4. Northern Giant, 30-1, 5. Yawanna Twist, 30-1, 6. Jackson Bend, 12-1, 9. Caracortado, 10-1, 11. First Dude, 20-1, 12. Dublin, 10-1.

* All starters will carry 126 pounds.

My pick is Super Saver. This horse is peaking at the right time and with Borel–who rode the Preakness Stakes first filly winner Rachel Alexandra to victory in 2009 — in the irons. I say that Super Saver has a super chance of winning this year’s Preakness Stakes.

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