MLB Betting – Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants
Gio Gonzalez (6-3) vs. Tim Lincecum (5-2)
Gonzalez vs. Giants Hitting
Gio Gonzalez is experiencing a breakout year in his third season as a major leaguer. The 24-year old has already matched a career high for wins in a season, and has been a very strong arm on a team very much in the AL West pennant race. He hasn’t lost a game since May 12th, going 3-0 in five starts since; he’s seen his ERA drop .50 points in that span. The only question with Gonzalez is if this strong play can last. He’s almost pitched as much innings this year as he did last, so questions will arise about his durability. However, he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down yet, so it’s safe to be betting on the A’s when Gonzalez is pitching.
The left hander handcuffed the Giants in a previous start this season; eight innings of shutout ball, allowing only two hits and striking out five. San Francisco’s hitting has been a problem all season long, and can be easily stopped by competent pitching. However, the hot streak of recent call-up Buster Posey has bucked that trend. In 11 games, Posey is hitting .450 with one home run and six RBI’s. The rookie catcher has been touted as a hitting machine all his life, and will be the biggest hurdle Gonzalez will have to overcome in this start.
Lincecum vs. Athletics Hitting
Everyone knows how good Tim Lincecum can be, so it’s incredible strange to see him struggle; that’s what’s happening right now. Lincecum is 0-2 in his last four starts, pitched past five whole innings only once and has given up at least three runs in each start. His ERA has ballooned from 1.76 to 3.20 in that span. He’s too good not to rebound, it’s just a matter of when that will happen.
Oakland may be the team that helps Lincecum break his little slump. The Athletics offense hasn’t been the same since Rajai Davis got hurt last week, and despite reports he may start in this game, he’ll probably wait another day or two. The match up to watch, however, will be Lincecum against A’s third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff. Kouzmanoff faced Lincecum a lot when he was in San Diego, and is one of the rare batters with success (.355 average) against the two-time Cy Young winner. However, if Kouz is the only bat Lincecum has to worry about, the Giants chances of winning are pretty good.
Bullpen Comparison
If you bet on MLB, you know the trio of Brad Ziegler (2.76 ERA), Craig Breslow (2.73) and Andrew Baily (1.88 ERA) is one of the best in the American League. In particular, it’s a good sign for A’s fans to see Baily, last seasons AL Rookie of the Year, succeed as opposed to succumbing to a sophomore slump. Despite a couple of weak arms (Chad Gaudin and his 8.83 ERA stand out), this is still a very strong bullpen.
The San Francisco bullpen features one of the best closers in the game and a veteran who seemingly has found his fountain of youth. Brian Wilson anchors the pen, and his 15 saves and 2.45 ERA place him high in NL leader boards. The surprise story has been Guillermo Mota. The 37-year old is sporting a minuscule 1.27 ERA, allowing only three runs in 21 innings pitched. He’s allowed only a single home run all season. Those two highlight a very competent bullpen.
Outlook
Tim Lincecum is due for a bounce back game, and there are plenty of reasons to believe this is it. The A’s offense has been struggling and no one outside of Kouzmanoff has had much success against the right-hander. If you’re betting, pick the Giants, because this is where we will all see the real Tim Lincecum once again.
Pick: San Francisco Giants
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