Mets vs Marlins | Preview, Odds, Free Pick

New York Mets (43-34) at Florida Marlins (37-40)
7:10 PM ET on ESPN2 - FREE Expert MLB Picks

Starting Pitchers
NYM: M. Pelfrey (10-2, 2.71)
FLA: C. Volstad (4-7, 4.40)

The last time Florida played in San Juan, it swept the Expos in three games in 2004. Now they set their sites on another, as they take on the New York Mets in the final game of a three-game set on Wednesday at Hiram Bithorn Stadium in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Florida has won eight of 12 versus the Mets this year including a four game sweep against New York back in May of this year.

The Marlins made the trip to Puerto Rico having lost four straight, but after opening the series with a 10-3 win on Monday, the Fish responded by beating the Mets 7-6 on Hanley Ramirez’s grand slam and Dan Uggla’s walkoff single in game two.

Winning in San Juan was even sweeter for newly appointed Florida skipper Edwin Rodriguez, who is 3-4 since becoming the first Puerto Rican-born manager in league history, when he replaced Fredi Gonzalez a week ago. Now he will look to help continue the club’s success against Mike Pelfrey as they try to push their win streak in Puerto Rico to 8-1 all-time.

Pelfrey, who bounced back from a rough outing in his previous start to earn his 10th win of the season, will have other ideas. The righty held the Twins to a pair of earned runs on six hits Friday, including a solo homer by Denard Span while fanning two batters. It was Pelfrey’s seventh quality start in his last eight appearances. Friday was also the sixth time in his last eight outings he’s held his opponent to less than three runs. He’s been consistently good this season, but Pelfrey is 0-6 with a 5.82 ERA in nine starts against the Marlins since defeating them in his major league debut July 8, 2006. He has struggled to get out Uggla, who is 9 for 23 with four doubles against him and had a homer and three RBIs on Tuesday.

The Marlins will call on 24-year old right-hander Chris Volstad who allowed three earned runs on seven hits through six innings of work Friday against San Diego. Despite receiving a losing a 3-0 decision, the Palm Beach Gardens, Florida native struck out six and didn’t walk a batter. Volstad has one win in his last nine starts for the Marlins. He will look to improve his record four starts against the Mets, where he has gone 1-2 with a 2.70 ERA. He suffered both defeats last year, posting a 4.91 ERA in those games.

The odds makers have the Mets as –1-½ – favorites with a run total of 9 ½.

I expect the Mets to take game three behind a solid pitching effort from Pelfrey to avoid the sweep and the UNDER.

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New York Mets Betting Trends:

  • NY Mets are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
  • NY Mets are 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
  • NY Mets are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets’s last 9 games on the road

Florida Marlins Betting Trends:

  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Florida’s last 13 games
  • Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida’s last 6 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida’s last 7 games when playing NY Mets

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