Minnesota Twins 2011 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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For the fifth time in eight years, the Twins won the AL Central and got knocked out in the ALDS. Refreshed and restocked, they’ll try again in 2011.

Minnesota Twins 2010 MLB Record: 94-68
Minnesota Twins 2010 MLB Home Record: 53-28
Minnesota Twins 2010 MLB Away Record: 41-40

Minnesota Twins 2011 Betting

Minnesota Twins Odds to Win the American League: +800
Minnesota Twins Odds to Win the World Series: +2000

Minnesota Twins 2011 Preview & Prediction

Every year, the pattern seems to repeat itself. The Twins are kings of the American League Central and postseason pawns. Their run of six division titles in nine years is now overshadowed by a baffling streak: 12 consecutive postseason losses, the second-longest such streak in major league history. The Red Sox hold the record, with 13 straight postseason losses from 1986 to 1995, starting with the Bill Buckner game. Now, 20 years since their last World Series title, the Twins are out to prove they aren’t cursed, especially against the Yankees, who have swept them from the past two postseasons. The Twins have plenty of talent, assuming Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau can stay healthy. But like many teams, they have big questions, starting with their pitching.

Minnesota Twins Manager: Ron Gardenhire – 10th year Record: 803-656

The AL’s Manager of the Year in 2010 is a tough minded, player-friendly skipper who always makes sure his team is fundamentally sound.

Minnesota Twins 2011 Projected Batting Order: CF Denard Span (L), SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka (S), C Joe Mauer (L), 1B Justin Morneau (L), LF Delmon Young (R), DH Jason Kubel (L), RF Michael Cuddyer (R), 3B Danny Valencia (R), 2B Alexi Casilla (S).

Minnesota Twins 2011 Projected Rotation: LH Francisco Liriano, RH Carl Pavano, LH Brian Duensing, RH Nick Blackburn, RH Scott Baker.

Minnesota Twins 2011 Projected Closer: RH Joe Nathan

2011 Minnesota Twins Offense:

OF Denard Span is a patient hitter who should hit for abetter average, though the Twins don’t use his speed that often. SS/2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s .346 average in Japan last year was a bit fluky. Think Mark Ellis with more speed and a little less power. C Joe Mauer will be in the hunt for another batting title, but pitcher- friendly Target Field will keep his power numbers in check. 1B Justin Morneau returns from a serious concussion. He should be good for 100 RBIs. OF/1B Michael Cuddyer had his power zapped in Target Field, but he didn’t hit well on the road either. Perhaps a return to fulltime DHing will to Jason Kubel good. He struggled to hit for power at Target Field. OF Delman Young finally delivered last year, but his good-not-great power and lack of base stealing prowess limits his fantasy up’side. Don’t expect light-hitting 3B Danny Valencia to hit .300 again. 2B/SS Alexi Casilla will likely bat ninth. He can fly, but Gardenhire has never let him run much.

2011 Minnesota Twins Rotation:

Francisco Lirian is all the way back. He was an absolute stud last season and has a real shot at a Cy Young in 2011, especially if Tyuoshi Nishioka and Alexi Casilla are the real deal offensively up the middle. Scott Baker had his elbow cleaned out over the winter, aminor tweak that could allow him to regain his form. He’s certainly pitching in the right park; as a flyball pitcher, Baker won’t get burned by the longball often in the league’s least HR-friendly park. He spent the winter on the trading block, and Kevin Slowey may never reach his potential because of injuries. He’s another flyball pitcher who fits well in Target Field (5.63 ERA on the road). The Twins trust Brian Duensing, even giving him a postseason start. He’s a middle-of-the-rotation starter at best, and he got lots of help from the bullpen last year. When we posted this, Nick Blackburn was the favorite for the fifth rotation spot. A mediocre innings eater, he had minor elbow surgery over the winter.

2011 Minnesota Twins Bullpen:

If he avoids any setbacks in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Joe Nathan should be on track to pitch in spring training. Once healthy, the closer’s role is his. Should Nathan hit a bump in the road, Matt Capps would step in for him. He has the old closer’s mentality, but Capps isn’t dominant enough to warrant a fantasy roster spot as aset-up man. Jose Mijares had knee surgery last year, but his left arm remains sound. He’ll be the top southpaw in the bullpen. He’s more of a specialist. Pat Neshek is back after missing all of 2009 after Tommy John surgery and most of 2010 with a finger injury. He’ll be relegated to middle relief.

2011 Minnesota Twins Middle Infield:

Once the Twins realized how difficult it was to hit home runs at Target Field, they knew they had to get faster on the basepaths. Last year, they tried a veteran middle-infield tandem of J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson, but both were jettisoned. In a surprise move, the Twins won the negotiating rights for Japanese shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka with a $5.3 million bid to the Chiba Lotte Marines, and signed him to a three-year, $9.25 million contract with a club option for 2014. Nishioka, 26, batted .346 last year to win the Japanese Pacific League batting title. He averaged 28 stolen bases over the past six years in Japan. The Twins haven’t given up hope that Alexi Casilla can become an everyday player. He flamed out after being named the team’s Opening Day second baseman in 2009 but impressed the coaching staff last year with his work ethic off the bench. Nishioka and Casilla are both speedy switch-hitters who can play shortstop and second base. It’s uncertain who will play where, but it should be interesting to see how they complement each other.

2011 Minnesota Twins Corners:

When you’re getting swept each postseason, it’s tough for one player to make a difference, but the Twins sure wish Morneau had been healthy the past two Octobers. Morneau, 29, missed the final month of the 2009 season with a stress fracture in his lower back, and last year, he suffered a season-ending concussion on July 7. The four-time All-Star’s slow recovery left concerns that he might never be the same, but Morneau resumed his workouts in November and said “there’s not a doubt” in his mind that he’d be ready for spring training. Danny Valencia should be champing at the bit, too. Promoted from Class-AAA Rochester in June, he led all American League rookies in batting average (.311), doubles (16) and RBIs (37) after the All-Star break. Third base has been a revolving door since Corey Koskie departed as a free agent after 2004, but Valencia appears to be a long-term solution.

2011 Minnesota Twins Outfield:

While several Twins hitters went backward in 2010, left fielder Delmon Young made major strides forward. After driving home 69 and 60 runs his first two seasons in Minnesota, Young led the team with 112 RBIs. He also hit a career-high 21 homers and added 46 doubles, coming within one double of Morneau’s club record. Leadoff man Denard Span needs to rebound after seeing his on-base percentage drop from .392 to .331 the past two years. Right fielder Michael Cuddyer is entering his free agent walk year. He hit 14 home runs last year after smashing a career-high 32 in 2009 but proved invaluable again by making a seamless transition to first base with Morneau injured.

2011 Minnesota Twins Catching:

Mauer gets a fresh start after a disappointing season by his standards. He faced impossibly high expectations after winning 2009 AL MVP honors and signing an eight-year, $184 million contract in spring training. As always, the key for Mauer is staying healthy. He had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee again in December after being banged up all season. A three-time batting champion, Mauer batted .293 before the All-Star break and .373 after the break. After hitting a career-high 28 home runs in 2009, Mauer hit just nine homers, including one at Target Field. There is no talk of the Twins having Mauer switch positions. He turns 28 on April 19 and hopes to continue catching for several years. The Twins traded top catching prospect Wilson Ramos to Washington for Capps last year, so if Mauer is injured again, they’ll be leaning on backup Drew Butera or minor league signees Steve Holm and Rene Rivera.

2011 Minnesota Twins Bench:

Jason Kubel has shown he’s capable of playing either corner outfield spot, but he serves as the DH when the rest of the lineup is healthy. Target Field seemed to fluster Kubel as much as any Twins hitter after his breakout performance in 2009, when he batted .300 with 28 home runs and 103 RBIs. His OPS slipped from .908 to .750, even though he got consistent playing time, surpassing 500 at-bats for the second straight season. Jim Thome gave the Twins a tremendous boost last January, when he signed on for a bench role. With Morneau injured, Thome wound up leading the team with 25 home runs and posting a 1.039 OPS. He returns for what will likely be his final season.

Minnesota Twins 2011 Season Predictions

Though it’s easy to look at last season as a disappointment in Minnesota, don’t forget the team was missing its cleanup hitter (Justin Morneau) and closer (Joe Nathan). Both are healthy and should only make this club better. The Twins will be favored to win the AL Central again. But they need to overcome their postseason demons. – We predict that the Minnesota Twins will finish 92-70 & 1st in the AL Central Division.

Minnesota Twins 5-Year Win Trend

2006: 1st AL Central 96
2007: 3rd AL Central 79
2008: 2nd AL Central 88
2009: 1st AL Central 87
2010: 1st AL Central 94

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