Pittsburgh Pirates (52-47) vs Atlanta Braves (59-43)
Monday July 25 – 7:05PM (ESPN)
Pitching Probables: James McDonald vs Tim Hudson
Spread: Atlanta Braves -1.5
Money Line: Atlanta Braves -190, Pittsburgh Pirates +160
Over/Under: 7
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It has been a long time since a series between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves meant anything (I think 1992 – if memory serves). The Pirates are at a critical junction right now as they continue to try and prove they are to be taken seriously as a contender. To do that they will need to hold their own against good teams, like the Braves, who they face over the next week. It was absolutely critical for them to take the last game of their weekend series against St. Louis and they did (although it took extra innings). To win tonight they are going to need another very good outing from starter James McDonald. The team has won McDonald’s last three outings and he pitched well in a May outing against Atlanta even though it was a loss. To win he has to stay in the game at least as long as his opposite as the bullpen was taxed by the Cards over the weekend. The Pirates pitching may be producing over their head but it is hard to argue with the results. Can they keep it up?
The Braves are the favourite tonight and deservedly so even though oddsmakers haven’t shown much respect to the Pirates all season long. My gut says to go with the Braves but it should be noted that despite Tim Hudson’s solid numbers they are just 10-10 in his starts this season. They also enter the game on a 2 game losing streak having suffered the embarrassment of losing to Dontrelle Willis and the Reds on Sunday Night Baseball. This is an interesting series for Atlanta. Win a few games and they likely keep pace with the Philadelphia Phillies while dealing a punishing blow to the Pirates, who are teetering right now. Still it is the middle of a long season, and heatwave, so will they have the enthusiasm for the series that the Pirates should bring? In baseball it is hard to predict emotion because of the long season but I think it will be critical in this one.
The odds makers have the Atlanta Braves as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 7.
Prediction: Reversed my original thinking and see the Pirates sneaking a victory over the Braves in the opener. Just enough offense and pitching to get it done.
Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates – 4, Atlanta Braves – 2
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Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh’s last 13 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta Braves Betting Trends:
Atlanta is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 8 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
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