Nuggets vs Bucks | Prediction & Pick

NBA Free Pick – Wednesday February 16, 2011

vs.

Denver Nuggets (31-25) vs Milwaukee Bucks (21-33)
Wednesday, February 16, 2011 at 9:00 pm EST on ESPN

Last meeting: Denver won 105-94 at home in December.

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The league’s highest scoring team comes to Milwaukee in the form of the Denver Nuggets and they still have high scoring forward Carmelo Anthony in the fold.  Melo has been very good amidst the rumours of late but the team overall has struggled winning only 3 of their last 10.  The Nuggets as they are currently constituted have not been very good road team this season (just 9-18 SU) and have been a poor bet all season both at home and away (23-30-1 ATS).  They haven’t won in Milwaukee since 2007 but they are catching the Bucks in the middle of a slump as well.  No matter where they playthe strategy is the same, keep bombing away to victory.  Milwaukee is strong on defense and this game offers a fascinating contrast in styles.

The Bucks are definitely walking wounded these days with 4 players questionable for tonight.  They haven’t been playing well, even when healthy, of late and it looks like the season could be lost any moment as they have quietly fallen out of the playoff race in the East.  The only reason to keep an eye on these guys at this time is that point guard Brandon Jennings can be a real treat to watch.  He leads the team in scoring and had a very good game against the Clippers in their win on Valentine’s Day.  He will do his best to keep his undermanned squad in the game but I don’t think it will be enough to push the Bucks to another victory.

Check out the latest NBA Basketball Odds here.

The odds makers have the Milwaukee Bucks as a -1.5 point favorite with an over/under of 201.

Prediction: Both teams are scuffling but I think the smart play is to back the Nuggets who are healthier and have more to play for right now.  With no line currently posted it is hard to assess the value here.

Score:  Denver 104 – Milwaukee 92

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Denver Nuggets Betting Trends

• Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.
• Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Trends

• Bucks are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Bucks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Bucks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.