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Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, May 17, 2011 at 9:00 pm EST on ESPN
Pointspread: Dallas -6
Money Line: Thunder +210, Mavericks -250
Over/Under: 192.5
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The Oklahoma City Thunder square-off against the Dallas Mavericks this Tuesday night at the American Airlines Center in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Oklahoma City needed a 105-90 victory over Memphis as a 6 ½-point home favorite in Game 7 of its semifinal matchup to earn a spot in the conference finals. The Thunder actually trailed in this series 2-1, but rallied with three wins in the last four games to advance. Coupled with a five-game series win over Denver in the first round, they are now 6-5-1 against the spread in the postseason. The total is 5-6-1 in the 12 games.
The key to grabbing an early edge in this series with a win on Tuesday will hinge on the play of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The two have combined for 52.8 points a game in the postseason, but have struggled shooting the ball at times, especially from three-point range. Durant is hitting 45.8 percent of his shots from the field but was a dreadful 3-for-14 in Game 6 and an even worse 1-for-9 from beyond the arc. Westbrook is shooting 40.7 percent from the floor and 31.6 percent from three-point range.
The Thunder are averaging 103 points and 46.6 rebounds a game while holding their opponents to 98.7 points and 41.3 rebounds. They outrebounded Denver 48-38, but faced a much tougher battle under the boards against Memphis. It will be up to Durant and Serge Ibaka to win this battle against the Mavs, given the two have combined for over 15 rebounds a game.
Dallas found itself in a 2-2 series tie with Portland in the first round after dropping both Game 3 and 4 on the road. Since that point, it has reeled off six straight wins by an average of 12 points but this number is a bit skewed by a 122-86 romp over the Lakers in Game 4 as a two-point home favorite. The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0-1 ATS and the total has gone ‘over’ in six of their 10 games.
The elevated play of Dirk Nowitzki along with solid supporting cast led by Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler, and Jason Kidd has been the primary difference between this season’s postseason successes as opposed to Dallas’s frequent early exits from the playoffs. Nowitzki is averaging 26.5 points and 8.4 rebounds a game in the playoffs which is even better than his 23 point and seven rebound season average. Terry is second in scoring with 18.3 points a game and Chandler is averaging 8.7 rebounds a game. Kidd continues to direct the offense with 7.2 assists a game.
The Mavericks have been very consistent shooting the ball; hitting 47 percent from the floor and 41.9 percent from three-point range. They are averaging 96.9 points a game and have not given up a 100-point game yet. Dallas held the Trail Blazers to under 90 points in four of the games and the Lakers to under 90 twice.
Head-to-head, the Mavericks won two of three straight-up this season and were 2-1 ATS. The total went ‘over’ in two of the three games.
The odds makers have the Dallas Mavericks as a -6 point favorite with an over/under of 192.5.
Check out the latest NBA Basketball Playoff Odds here.
Prediction: Tuesday’s game is a perfect opportunity for Oklahoma City to capitalize on some of the rust that might have set in during the Mavericks’ recent down-time. Take the Thunder to cover with the six points in a game that stays ‘under’ the total.
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