Alabama State vs Texas San Antonio | Prediction & Pick

UT San Antonio and Alabama State looking for first win in Big Dance

Of all the things that are certain about the ‘First Four’ games this week in Dayton, we know two things already for certain about Wednesday’s matchup in Dayton between the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners and the Alabama State Hornets. One thing is that the winner will gain their first ever tournament victory. The other thing is that they will advance to tangle with top-seeded Ohio State on Friday in Cleveland.

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Texas-San Antonio (19-13, 9-7 Southland) vs. Alabama State (17-17, 11-7 SWAC)

Date/Time: Wednesday, March 16, 6:40 PM ET
Venue: University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, OH.
Broadcast: TruTV

Money Line: UTSA -210, Alabama State +175
Spread: UT San Antonio -5
Over/Under: 129 ½

Both of these schools qualified for the tournament by winning their conference tournament championships. In doing so, each is making a fourth-ever appearance in the NCAA Tournament.

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The Roadrunners achieved the Southland Conference title by upsetting McNeese State, the team with the best record in their conference, 75-72 to reach the big dance for the first time since 2004. The three all-time tournament losses have come in the first round, with only the first in 1988 to Illinois being by single digits. The other two were by 26 and 35 points each.

The Hornets picked off SWAC regular season champ Texas Southern in the conference semis and then took down Grambling State to earn their second appearance in the last three years. In 2009, they lost the opening round game in Dayton to Morehead State. Their other two appearances were blowout losses by 34 and 35 points.

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Devin Gibson is the lead bird for the Roadrunners. The senior guard from Houston led UTSA in scoring at 17.0 PPG, fourth best in the Southland Conference, and he was tops in the league in assists at 5.6 per game and steals at 2.7 per contest. Melvin Johnson III (14.8 PPG) and Jeromie Hill (13.6 PPG) also average in double figures.

To overcome being ranked in the bottom of the country in scoring offense, the Hornets have had to use a stinging defense to get the job done. To that end, Chris Duncan finished second in the SWAC in blocks at 1.7 per game in just over 21 minutes per contest. Tramayne Moorer leads Alabama State in scoring at 12.5 points per outing, shooting 50% from the field on the season.

The odds makers have the UT San Antonio Roadrunners as a -5 point favorite with an over/under of 129.5.

Matt’s Free Prediction: Calling for the upset, we like that Alabama State has a victory against trendy-upset pick Oakland, so I’ll take the Hornets in a nail-biter.

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