Arkansas Razorbacks 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Arkansas 2008 Record: (5-7, 2-6)
Arkansas 2008 Bowl: none
Arkansas Coach: Bobby Petrino (5-7 at Arkansas, 46-16 overall)
Arkansas Offensive Coordinator: Paul Petrino
Arkansas Defensive Coordinator: Willy Robinson
Arkansas Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Michael Smith, RB, 1,072 yards
• Passing: Tyler Wilson, QB, 69 yards
• Receiving: D.J. Williams, TE, 723 yards
• Tackles: Jerry Franklin, LB, 87
• Sacks: Malcolm Sheppard, DT, 6.5
• Interceptions: Ramon Broadway, CB, 2; Jerry Franklin, LB, 2

Notable Arkansas Returning Players: WR Joe Adams, DE Jake Bequette, LB Freddy Burton, DE Adrian Davis, LB Wendel Davis, OT Ray Dominguez, S Elton Ford, CB Isaac Madison, WR Lucas Miller, DT Zach Stadther, K Alex Tejada

Arkansas Key Losses: P Jeremy Davis, QB Casey Dick, CB Jamar Love, C Jonathan Luigs, OT Jose Valdez, S Dallas Washington

2008 was a transition year as Bobby Petrino’s first season was chock full of close games and defensive lapses. Arkansas finished 5-7 but lost some very tight games in the second half and capped off the season with an upset of rival LSU. The Razorbacks return more starters than any other team in the entire conference and ended the season last year as the proverbial team that no one wanted to play. Can the Hogs take the next step towards contention?

The biggest news on offense is that former Michigan quarterback Ryan Mallett, who was the top prospect in the country his senior year, is finally eligible and will start under center. Everyone knows about Petrino’s success with Brian Brohm at Louisville and Mallett probably has more physical talent. This position will go from a weakness to a strength immediately. Mallett, who is much slimmer than when he was nicknamed ‘Lurch’ at Michigan, should be able to buy plenty of time in the pocket to get the ball to a young but deep receiving corps. Junior tight end DJ Williams was a 1st team All-SEC selection last fall after catching 61 passes and every contributing receiver of note is back. I expect a big jump in productivity through the air.

The running game should also be significantly better this fall. Senior Michael Smith is back after rushing for 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns, earning 2nd team All-SEC honors. However, he won’t have to bear the entire load this season as USC transfer Broderick Green will provide a very capable second option in the backfield. Both should find plenty of room to run behind an offensive line that should be much improved in their second season in Petrino’s system. Overall, I expect a big jump in offensive production from the Razorbacks and they should outstrip last season’s paltry 22 points per game production by a wide margin. This is the most improved offense in the conference.

Defensively, the Razorbacks were the conference’s worst team in 2008, allowing over 31 points per game. However, there are nine returning starters and the Hogs only started four upperclassmen last fall! Petrino’s decision to go with youth on defense last fall will definitely pay off in 2009. Up front, senior defensive tackle Malcolm Sheppard was a 2nd team All-SEC selection after racking up 68 tackles and 6.5 sacks and I expect him to once more be a force inside. While the Razorback line will probably start two sophomores, both of whom played major minutes last fall, there’s a ton of talent on hand and senior end Adrian Davis provides another strong pass rusher. I expect a significantly improved defensive line.

At linebacker, all three starters are back after combining for 206 tackles last fall. Sophomore Jerry Franklin led the team in tackles and interceptions last year and could be one of the conference’s best players. I really like the Arkansas front seven and this should be a vastly improved run defense. On the other hand, the secondary only had one upperclassman starter last fall and is still a very young group. Even worse was junior Isaac Madison tearing an ACL, meaning that the Razorbacks could once more start three underclassmen, including star true frosh Darius Winston! While I think that Arkansas has a much improved front seven, they’re vulnerable through the air and are still a very young unit. However, I definitely expect a much improved defense this fall.

The schedule is absolutely brutal. The Razorbacks play Georgia, Florida and South Carolina from the East! On top of that, they have to travel to LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama in SEC West play! Their non-conference schedule isn’t too tough outside of a renewal of their old Southwest Conference rivalry with Texas A&M but they have the misfortune of being the only SEC team to play the conference’s five best squads.

Here’s a quick summary of this time: Significantly better on offense and much improved on defense. My only real concern with the Razorbacks is their secondary but there are a lot of talented players jockeying for playing time. However, I almost feel like I’ve gone out on a limb picking them to go 4-4 in SEC play. That’s because of their schedule, which might be the toughest in the country. Look at this stretch starting in mid-September: Georgia, at Alabama, vs. Texas A&M, Auburn, at Florida, at Ole Miss! Talk about difficult! I think Arkansas is going to have a great offense because Ryan Mallett is the prototype for Petrino’s offense and everyone around him is a year better. I think the defense will be tough up front and should eventually settle the backfield. I just think that this year’s schedule combined with the team’s extreme youth is going to make things very difficult for the Razorbacks to compete for the SEC West crown. While I think that 8 wins is their ceiling this year, watch out for Arkansas in 2010.

Arkansas Big Games: Sept. 19th vs. Georgia, Sept. 26th @ Alabama, Oct. 3rd vs. Texas A&M (Arlington), Oct. 10th vs. Auburn, Oct. 17th @ Florida, Oct. 24th @ Ole Miss, Nov. 7th vs. South Carolina, Nov. 28th @ LSU

Arkansas’s Strength:

Ryan Mallett, a transfer from Michigan, is expected to be the best quarterback that Arkansas has seen in quite some time. Casey Dick was a decent signal caller, but Mallett can win games for the Razorbacks while Dick just did what he could not to lose them. With tight end D.J. Williams and receivers Joe Adams, London Crawford and Lucas Miller all returning, Mallett should be in for a big, big year. And the passing attack will get plenty of help from the rushers in the backfield. The diminutive Michael Smith ran for over 1,000 yards last year and there is plenty of depth behind him just in case his hamstring injury develops into a big problem. Dennis Johnson was the team’s second leading rusher last season, but recruits Ronnie Wingo and Knile Davis will also be in the mix, as well as USC transfer Broderick Green.

Arkansas’s Weakness:

The offense is all well and good, but the defense was plain awful last year. The team ranked last in the SEC in rush defense, total defense and scoring defense. The front seven returns intact, but that might not be a good thing. The unit was extremely young last year and some improvement should be expected across the board, but somebody has to step up and become the leader of the unit. Sophomore linebacker Jerry Franklin is the likely candidate after leading the team in tackles last year. The lone bright spot, if one can really call it that, was in the secondary, but now strong safety Dallas Washington and cornerback Jamar Love are gone. There are some young playmakers like sophomore safety Elton Ford and junior corner Isaac Madison returning, but the unit needs to find a few more impact players.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Razorbacks:

Assuming Mallett lives up to his hype, the Arkansas offense should be in good shape. In fact, now that Smith has emerged as an elusive running back, the Razorbacks could put up a ton of points in a hurry. The difference between a trip to a bowl game and another disappointing season will be the play of the defense. If they can improve and at least not rank last in the conference in total defense, this is a team that should make it to a bowl despite a tough schedule.

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