Boise State Broncos 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Boise State 2008 Record: (12-1, 8-0)
Boise State 2008 Bowl: Poinsettia Bowl vs. TCU (L 16-17)
Boise State Coach: Chris Petersen (35-4 at Boise State, 35-4 overall)
Boise State Offensive Coordinator: Bryan Harsin
Boise State Defensive Coordinator: Justin Wilcox
Boise State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Jeremy Avery, RB, 614 yards
• Passing: Kellen Moore, QB, 3,486 yards
• Receiving: Austin Pettis, WR, 567 yards
• Tackles: Jeron Johnson, S, 98
• Sacks: Ryan Winterswyk, DE, 4.5
• Interceptions: Kyle Wilson, CB, 5

Notable Boise State Returning Players: FB Richie Brockel, C Thomas Byrd, TE Tommy Gallarda, S George Iloka, OT Nate Potter, G Kevin Sapien, CB Brandyn Thompson

Boise State Key Losses: DT Sean Bingham, DT Joe Bozikovich, LB Tim Brady, WR Jeremy Childs, LB Kyle Gingg, G Jon Gott, WR Julian Hawkins, RB Ian Johnson, WR Vinny Perretta, S Ellis Powers, DE Mike T. Williams, OT Andrew Woodruff

The conference championship discussion begins and ends with the Broncos. Aside from their amazing seven year run in conference play, the Broncos are led by one of the country’s most innovative offensive minds in Head Coach Chris Peterson, who has never led Boise State a season where the offense averaged less than 36 points per game. Furthermore, Peterson’s team went 12-0 last season with a freshman at quarterback! Do you think that he isn’t expecting his offense to get better this fall?

That quarterback is sophomore Kellen Moore, who threw for nearly 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns last fall against only 10 interceptions. While Moore had the benefit of a strong running game to keep defenses honest last fall, he will miss the production and savvy of departed tailback Ian Johnson (766 yards, 13 TDs). In Johnson’s place will be junior Jeremy Avery, who did carry the ball 111 times last fall and score four touchdowns. Since he will be running behind a strong offensive line that returns three starters, I expect the Broncos to improve upon 2008’s five year low in rushing yards this fall. Moore will also be looking for some new receivers to step up this fall as the only returnee is junior Austin Pettis, who had 49 catches for 567 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2008. Expect fellow junior Titus Young, who was suspended most of last season, to step up in a big way after being expected to break out last fall following a strong freshman campaign. Boise State scored 37.6 points per game last year, incredibly their 2 nd lowest total since joining the WAC. I would not be surprised whatsoever if the Broncos exceeded that total in 2009.

On defense, the Broncos’ 2008 edition allowed a miniscule 12.6 points per game, the best in school history. Interestingly enough, their rush yards allowed per game was actually the 2 nd worst since 2002 but this was offset by the top BSU pass defense in the WAC era, allowing only 190 yards per game through the air, good for 4 th in the entire NCAA! However, only five starters return from the conference’s best defense last year. Up front, junior Ryan Winterswyk, who had 40 tackles and 4.5 sacks last year, will be the leader of a young line which loses three starters. However, the 2008 1 st team All-WAC selection should find himself part of a pretty solid unit as Boise State has recruited far beyond its league competitors up front in recent years. At linebacker, junior Derrell Acrey is the only returnee after making 59 tackles. While the small number of returnees is a concern, Boise State actually fell off slightly in the past two seasons against the run and I expect them to continue to perform very well against the ground attack. I also expect teams to try and run often on the Broncos as they return 3 starters from one of the nation’s best secondaries. Junior Jeron Johnson was the team’s top tackler last fall with 98 and returning corners Kyle Wilson and Brandyn Thompson combined for nine interceptions! Even better news is that their expected new starter at Free Safety, sophomore George Iloka, was the team’s 4 th leading tackler last fall with 63 and snagged 4 interceptions! Boise State will be killer against the pass and I expect that their run defense will round into form quickly enough. This is one of the WAC’s best defenses.

The schedule is also friendly to the Broncos. Top challenger Nevada (whom the Broncos edged 41-34 last fall in Reno) must travel to the Smurf Turf (where the Broncos have never lost a WAC conference game), as must San Jose State. Furthermore, the Broncos also host Oregon to open the season for a game which could put Boise State in pole position to bust the BCS. Now, there are some difficult games as well, including trips to Fresno State and rival Hawai’i, but overall the schedule doesn’t appear to be an impediment to another hugely successful fall in Boise. Expect the Broncos to field a very strong offense once more this fall and their defense has the potential to be great if they can gel up front as BSU boasts one of America’s best secondaries. Furthermore, I just can’t ignore only two conference losses in seven years. History says the Broncos go at least 7-1 in conference play this season and since two of their top three challengers have to play on the blue field, I’m picking the Broncos to go unbeaten once more. If they can knock off a retooling Oregon team to start the year, Boise State could find themselves in another BCS bowl this fall.

Boise State Big Games: Sept. 3rd vs. Oregon, Sept. 18th @ Fresno State, Oct. 14th @ Tulsa, Oct. 24th @ Hawai’i, Oct. 31st vs. San Jose State, Nov. 27th vs. Nevada

Boise State’s Strength:

The defense dominated most conference opponents last season and will again this year. While there are some big losses like linebackers Tim Brady and Kyle Gingg and safety Ellis Powers, not to mention most of the front line, the defense is still solid. The front line should be in good shape with end Ryan Winterswyk returning. Winterswyk tallied 4.5 sacks last year as a sophomore and should anchor a quality, albeit inexperienced, front four. The secondary returns safeties Jeron Johnson and George Iloka and corners Brandyn Thompson and Kyle Wilson. On the other side of the ball the strength is on the offensive line and in the backfield. Quarterback Kellen Moore had a superb freshman campaign, throwing for 3,486 yards and 25 touchdowns. Running back Ian Johnson is gone, but Jeremy Avery is back and ready to take over the load.

Boise State’s Weakness:

However, who is Moore going to pass the ball to this year? Jeremy Childs, Vinny Perretta and Julian Hawkins were the top three receivers a year ago and now they are all gone. Austin Pettis will step into the staring role after catching 49 passes for 567 yards and nine touchdowns. Pettis certainly has the capabilities to be the go-to-guy, but the Broncos will have to find a few more target to work with. The defense needs to find some new playmakers in the linebacker corps. Brady and Gingg were not the best linebackers to ever grace the blue turf of Bronco Stadium, but their leadership will be missed and somebody has to fill the gap.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Broncos:

Boise State will shoot for another perfect regular season, but they have to face a good Oregon team on the first day of the season. Will the kinks be worked out by September 3 rd when the Ducks come to town? The good news is that it is a home game and the Broncos have only lost two games on the blue turf in the last ten years. If Boise State can get by Oregon, the Broncos will slowly move up the polls and be in the mix for a BCS bid as long as they can avoid any upsets.

Boise State Betting Odds

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