Cincinnati Bearcats 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Cincinnati 2008 Record: (11-3, 6-1)
Cincinnati 2008 Bowl: Orange Bowl vs. Virginia Tech (L 7-20)
Cincinnati Coach: Brian Kelly (21-6 at Cincinnati, 159-57-2 overall)
Cincinnati Offensive Coordinator: Jeff Quinn
Cincinnati Defensive Coordinator: Bob Diaco
Cincinnati Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Jacob Ramsey, RB, 664 yards
• Passing: Tony Pike, QB, 2,407 yards
• Receiving: Marshawn Gilyard, WR, 1,276 yards
• Tackles: Aaron Webster, S, 60
• Sacks: Curtis Young, DE, 4.0
• Interceptions: Brad Jones, S, 2

Notable Cincinnati Returning Players: WR Marcus Barnett, C Chris Jurek, OT Jeff Linkenbach, LB Andre Revels

Cincinnati Key Losses: DE Connor Barwin, DT Terrill Byrd, G Trevor Canfield, LB Torry Cornett, RB John Goebel, WR Dominick Goodman, DT Adam Hoppel, LB Ryan Manalac, CB Mike Mickens, DE Lamonte Nelms, LB Corey Smith, CB DeAngelo Smith, S Brandon Underwood

Cincinnati is in the midst of the best run in school history. Last season’s 11 wins was a school record and the Bearcats won their first conference title since joining the Big East. Head coach Brian Kelly’s record is now 21-6 in two years at Cincinnati and there has been a lot of pressure in southeastern Ohio to keep him. If the Bearcats can have another ten win season, you can bet that a lot of major programs will come calling for the back to back Big East Coach of the Year, especially considering the massive losses that Cincinnati will have to replace this fall.

The offense isn’t the major concern when it comes to graduation losses. Six starters are back, including senior quarterback Tony Pike, who rose from obscurity last season to earn 2 nd team All-Big East honors. More than half of Pike’s 19 touchdowns were caught by senior receiver Marty Gilyard (also a 2 nd team Big East choice) and he will also augment the return game as he brought back two kickoffs for touchdowns in 2008. The running game should also be strong and will utilize three tailbacks; Senior Jacob Ramsey, who ran for 664 yards and 2 touchdowns last fall, junior John Goebel, who ran for 607 yards and 7 touchdowns last fall and sophomore Isaiah Pead, who was electric in averaging over six yards per carry in limited action. They will run behind a solid offensive line that brings back three starters from last year. Expect the Bearcats to improve upon last year’s 118 yards per game on the ground. Another shocking statistic is that Cincinnati was actually minus eight in turnovers last year but still won 11 games! Look for that number to improve as well and I expect Cincinnati to have a much more productive offense than the group which scored less than 26 points per game in 2008.

The major concern for me on this Bearcat team is the defense, which unbelievably only returns one starter! On top of that, the vast majority of the departed players played significant roles in Cincinnati’s recent success on defense. In the past three years, Cincinnati has allowed 20.1, 18.8 and 19.6 points per game! Only West Virginia has been as consistent. So, that means that Cincinnati is starting from scratch on a defense which has been one of the conference’s best. However, not all is lost. The defense is switching to a 3-4 and the expected starting ends do have some experience. Seniors Curtis Young and Alex Daniels did combine for 40 tackles and five sacks last year and expected starting nose tackle John Hughes did make 20 tackles and 2 sacks as a freshman. Thus it wouldn’t surprise me if the Bearcats fielded a solid defensive line this season but I think they’ll need a little bit of time to get their feet wet. At linebacker, senior Andre Revels has the most experience, having played significant minutes last year and contributed 59 tackles. He will have to be the leader of a linebacking corps which needed augmented by former Notre Dame quarterback Demetrius Jones! When I see a team switching a quarterback to linebacker, I have some huge question marks. The secondary loses three NFL draft picks (the entire defense loses four) and senior safety Aaron Webster is the only starter back. Webster, who notched 60 tackles and an interception last fall, will be relied upon to guide a group which could start three sophomores next to him. To say that Cincinnati’s defense will take a step back this fall is an understatement. However, the pieces for a good group are in place to perhaps step up as the season progresses.

The schedule is also very difficult. The Bearcats only have three home games in Big East play, the biggest of which is a Friday night clash in November against West Virginia. Cincinnati has to start the season at Rutgers and three of their first four conference games are on the road. The non-conference schedule is also very tough. The Bearcats host Fresno State and Illinois but must travel cross-country to face Oregon State. If Cincinnati’s defense doesn’t gel quickly, they could be in a world of trouble. In short, I expect Cincinnati to be a solid team but I’m definitely concerned about their inexperience and their tough schedule. While I don’t expect the Bearcats to miss a bowl game, they’ll be lucky to win more than seven games this fall.

Cincinnati Big Games: Sept. 7th @ Rutgers, Sept. 19th @ Oregon State, Oct. 15th @ USF, Nov. 13th vs. WVU, Nov. 27th vs. Illinois, Dec. 5th @ Pittsburgh

Cincinnati’s Strength:

There will not be a quarterback controversy this year for the Bearcats. Tony Pike was among a group of possible quarterbacks heading into the 2008 campaign, but he stepped up and became the go-to-guy. Pike threw for 2,407 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season and should be in for a good senior season. Pike will occasionally force passes and his completion percentage and interception rate could be better. And for his senior season, they probably will be better. With the return of Marshawn Gilyard, Pike has a quality receiver to work with. Gilyard, who is also one of the most dynamic kickoff returners in the nation, caught 81 passes for 1,276 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. Dominick Goodman will be missed and it will be important for other receivers to step up so the opposition cannot simply focus on stopping Gilyard.

Cincinnati’s Weakness:

Ten starters are gone from a defense that occasionally struggled. Linebacker Ryan Manalac was a tackling machine and Connor Barwin caused nightmares for the opposing quarterback. The secondary was full of quality players like Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith and now they are all gone. Since the personnel is changing so much, it is not a bad time to change the scheme. New defensive coordinator Bob Diaco will employ a 3-4 defense and is making plenty of other changes. The best returning defender is safety Aaron Webster and other players like defensive end Curtis Young have to step up and take over a bigger role. Diaco will look to some odd places to fill out his defense. Former quarterback Demetrius Jones is being moved to linebacker and former wide receiver Marcus Barnett could be starting at cornerback.

Our Prediction for the 2009 UC Bearcats:

The offense should be in good hands, but Coach Kelly needs a more consistent running game if the offense is going to be good enough to cover for the defense while they retool. Jacob Ramsey is back after leading the team with 664 rushing yards. It was the now departed John Goebel who finished drives and tallied seven touchdowns. Sophomore running back Isaiah Pead is the more interesting option. He only carried the ball 30 times as a freshman, but his spring went well and he could be the difference maker this team needs in the backfield.

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