Clemson Tigers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Clemson 2008 Record: (7-6, 4-4)
Clemson 2008 Bowl: Gator Bowl vs. Nebraska (L 21-26)
Clemson Coach: Dabo Swinney (4-3 at Clemson, 4-3 overall)
Clemson Offensive Coordinator: Billy Napier
Clemson Defensive Coordinator: Charlie Harbison and Kevin Steele
Clemson Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: C.J. Spiller, RB, 629 yards
• Passing: Willy Korn, QB, 216 yards
• Receiving: Jacoby Ford, WR, 710 yards
• Tackles: Kavell Conner, LB, 125
• Sacks: Jarvis Jenkins, DT, 2.0; Brandon Maye, LB, 2.0; Ricky Sapp, DE, 2.0
• Interceptions: Crezdon Butler, CB, 2; Chris Chancellor, CB, 2

Notable Clemson Returning Players: DE Kevin Alexander, C Thomas Austin, OT Chris Hairston, LB DeAndre McDaniel, TE Michael Palmer, OT Landon Walker

Clemson Key Losses: K Mark Buchholz, S Chris Clemons, RB James Davis, WR Tyler Grisham, S Mike Hamlin, QB Cullen Harper, DT Rashad Jackson, WR Aaron Kelly, DT Dorell Scott

The bubble finally popped for Tommy Bowden last fall. After being ranked in the top ten to enter the season and flush with highly recruited talent, the Tigers’ opening 3-3 flop was too much for Clemson’s administration to endure and they fired Bowden before he could mount his usual 2nd half comeback to cling to his job. Interim coach Dabo Swinney led the team to a 4-2 finish in the regular season and impressed enough to earn the head job as a full time gig. An energetic recruiter and good offensive mind, Swinney is one of the youngest head coaches in the country and brings a much-needed breath of fresh air into the program. With 15 starters back and a settled coaching situation, can the Tigers surprise?

Last season, I glossed over Clemson’s young offensive line and that was a big mistake. The Tigers’ expected powerful rushing attack never materialized and only mustered half of their production from just two years ago despite featuring two of the country’s best tailbacks! On top of that, their quarterbacks were sacked 34 times, second worst in the conference! However, the picture is much brighter up front this fall as all five starters return, including three sophomores who really picked up their play in the second half last season. Senior guard Thomas Austin was a 2nd team All-ACC selection and will be the captain of one of the conference’s strongest units. At tailback, the thunder of James Davis is gone but the lightning of senior CJ Spiller returns after earning 2nd team All-ACC honors in a part time role. Sophomore Jamie Harper will see some carriers but Spiller should be the feature back and he should run wild this season. Despite losing the ACC’s career leader in receptions, the wideouts look very good as well. Senior Jacoby Ford had 55 catches for 710 yards and 4 touchdowns last year and he will be the top option, though there is plenty of young talent waiting in the wings. The only concern is who will deliver the ball to them as two year starter Cullen Harper has departed. Local high school folk hero Willie Korn, baseball star Kyle Parker and highly touted true freshman Tajh Boyd are the top candidates for the job. However, Boyd tore his ACL during his senior year of high school, Korn has been injury prone and Parker has been splitting his time with baseball, so there are some big questions. However, Clemson didn’t have much luck health-wise at quarterback last fall and threw as many interceptions as touchdowns so I think that this group should at least take better care of the ball. With a very good offensive line, a dynamic running game and a solid set of receivers, I think that anyone stepping in under center will be in great position to succeed. I think that the Tigers should have a much better offense this year.

Defensively, things look great. New coordinator Kevin Steele was hired away from Alabama after running one of the country’s top defenses last fall and his first Clemson unit is stacked with eight returning starters. Despite the drama surrounding the program, the defense was excellent last fall, allowing only 17 points per game and that number could be even better this season. Up front, sophomore Daquan Bowers is one of three returning starters and is expected to break out in a major way after coming to Clemson as ESPN’s #1 overall recruit a year ago. Bowers contributed 47 tackles and 2 sacks as a true freshman last year and he could be a breakout superstar in his 2nd year. The Tigers fielded their worst run defense in four years last season and I expect that to change as two starting linebackers return as well. Senior Kavell Conner and sophomore Brandon Maye are the team’s top two returning tacklers and they combined for over 200 stops last fall. Expect a strong rush defense this season in Death Valley. If the good news up front wasn’t enough, the Tigers fielded one of the best defensive backfields in the conference last year and three starters return, led by seniors Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor, both of whom picked off 4 passes in 2008. Front to back, I can’t find a flaw with this defense and the Tigers could have the best defense in the ACC with Steele in charge.

The conference schedule is not going to be easy. Their Coastal draw includes road trips to Miami and Georgia Tech (on a Thursday night) and they also have to visit favored NC State in division play. The good news is that they have three home division games and a decent but unspectacular non-conference schedule, highlighted by TCU and a visit to archrival South Carolina, against whom they’ve won four of the last five. Frankly, things needed changed last year with Bowden’s removal. Clemson routinely brings in one of the top recruiting classes in the conference and had underachieved for years. This season’s big concern will be finding a quarterback who can protect the football because the Tigers look deep and talented at every other position. While I made a big mistake last fall picking the Tigers to win their division, I wouldn’t be shocked if the new Clemson Tigers under Dabo Swinney started living up to their fans’ lofty expectations in the seasons to come. Clemson is very much a contender for the Atlantic division title and should be one of the surprise teams in the country this fall.

Clemson Big Games: Sept. 10th @ Georgia Tech, Oct. 17th vs. Wake Forest, Oct. 24th @ Miami, Nov. 7th vs. FSU, Nov. 14th @ NC State, Nov. 28th @ South Carolina

Clemson’s Strength:

C.J. Spiller apparently really struggled with his decision whether to enter the NFL Draft or not. He was back and forth much of the winter and, luckily for Clemson, opted to return. Spiller will be the offense for this team and without him the Tigers would be in deep trouble. The back seven on defense has some holes to fill, but they also return some talented players. Corners Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor helped propel Clemson into the top 15 in pass defense in the entire nation. Linebacker Kavll Conner had a superb junior season and led the team with 125 total tackles. With DeAndre McDaniel and Brandon Maye also returning to their starting jobs, the Tigers linebacker corps should be the best unit in their defense.

Clemson’s Weakness:

However, the entire defense will suffer if nobody can get pressure on the quarterback. The team barely tallied over one sack per game and no individual tallied more than two on the entire season. Defensive end Ricky Sapp was supposed to be the main man on the end heading into the 2008 season, but he was quite disappointing. If he, along with players like Kevin Alexander and Da’quan Bowers cannot get into the backfield, the Tigers defense will be picked apart by most teams. The line on the other side is not much better. Everybody is back, but the unit gave up a ton of sacks and ranked 103 rd in the nation in that category. The line better grow up fast and help their young quarterback or it could be a long, long season for the Tigers.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Tigers:

Like most of the team, quarterback Cullen Harper also had a disappointing senior season. Willy Korn had all the hype heading out of high school and has done a decent job backing up Harper. However, redshirt freshman Kyle Parker is also in the mix. Parker is a more mobile quarterback who can create with his feet and that might be very important if the offensive line struggles as much as they did last season. Making matters worse for either quarterback is the absence of Aaron Kelly. The receiver led the team with 67 receptions for 722 yards and four touchdowns. Jacoby Ford will be the new go-to-guy, but the Tigers have to find another receiving option or two.

2008 Clemson Tigers Team Stats:

• Rushing Offense: 111.54 (99 th in nation, 10 th in conference)
• Passing Offense: 217.85 (58, 1)
• Total Offense: 329.38 (87, 4)
• Scoring Offense: 25.15 (60, 4)
• Rushing Defense: 127.38 (36, 5)
• Pass Defense: 172.54 (12, 3)
• Total Defense: 299.92 (18, 5)
• Scoring Defense: 17.31 (13, 2)
• Turnover Margin: -.08 (67, 9)
• Sacks: 1.08 (108, 12)
• Sacks Allowed: 2.54 (103, 11)

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