Houston Cougars 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Houston 2008 Record: (8-5, 6-2)
Houston 2008 Bowl: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Air Force (W 34-28 )
Houston Coach: Kevin Sumlin (8-5 at Houston, 8-5 overall)
Houston Offensive Coordinator: Dana Holgorsen and Jason Phillips
Houston Defensive Coordinator: John Skladany
Houston Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Bryce Beall, RB, 1,272 yards
• Passing: Case Keenum, QB, 5,020 yards
• Receiving: Tyron Carrier, WR, 1,026 yards
• Tackles: Marcus McGraw, LB, 103
• Sacks: Tyrell Graham, DE, 1.5
• Interceptions: Brandon Brinkley, CB, 4; Loyce Means, CB, 4

Notable Houston Returning Players: K Ben Bell, LB C.J. Cavness, WR Patrick Edwards, RB Andre Kohn, LB Matt Nicholson, WR Chaz Rodriguez, P Chase Turner

Houston Key Losses: DT Ell Ash, S Kenneth Fontenette, WR Mark Hafner, DE Phillip Hunt, LB Cody Lubojasky, S Ernest Miller, OT SirVincent Rogers, OT Sebastian Vollmer

I was a big fan of the Cougars entering 2008, picking them as my choice to win the C-USA West. Despite some early struggles, Houston entered their season-ending grudge match against rival Rice with a 6-1 conference record and a shot at hosting the C-USA Title Game on the line. Unfortunately, Rice ruined their dream but 2008 was still a huge success as Houston finished with an 8-5 record, including a bowl win. With some very strong pieces back for head coach Kevin Sumlin in his second season, can the Cougars take that next step and play for the conference title?

The offense is a huge positive for the Cougs as they return eight starters. The most important player on the entire team is junior quarterback Casey Keenum, who threw for 5,020 yards and 44 touchdowns against only 11 picks! Keenum was the 2008 C-USA Offensive Player of the Year and should once again be one of the conference’s most dangerous players. The supporting cast is also very talented in their own right, led by 2008 C-USA Freshman of the Year Bryce Beal, who rushed for 1,247 yards and 13 touchdowns while also contributing 34 catches for 496 yards and 4 scores! Beal keeps defenses honest because he’s a very dangerous player in his own right, giving Keenum a much easier time distributing the ball. It also helps that Keenum’s receivers are an excellent bunch, led by sophomore Tyron Carrier, who caught 80 passes for 1,026 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2008, good enough to earn 1 st team C-USA honors. Keenum completed nearly 400 passes last fall so there is a ton of depth on hand as most of those catches are back. Up front, the offensive line looks strong as well. Sophomore Chris Thompson was named to the All-Conference Freshman team last fall and he is one of three returning starters. Usually when a team averaged more than 40 points per game, it is tough to honestly predict much improvement. However, I believe that the Cougars are even better than last season and I expect nothing less from Keenum than to lead one of the most dangerous offenses in the entire country.

The defense is a much greater concern after only returning four starters from last season. The Cougars struggled against the run, allowing 175 yards per game en route to giving up 31 points per game. The linebackers appear to be the strength of the unit as senior C. J. Cavness and sophomore Marcus McGraw return after starting last fall. McGraw was the team’s leading tackler with 103 in 2008 and was named to the All-Conference Freshman team. The big concerns are the defensive line and the secondary. Up front, the Cougars return ZERO sacks and junior tackle Isaiah Thompson is the only starter back. Needless to say, I’m concerned about their ability to stop the run. The secondary is also full of holes but senior cornerback Brandon Brinkley was excellent in 2008, making 74 tackles and snaring 4 interceptions! The other corner spot should be manned by junior Loyce Means, who also had four picks last year as the nickel back. I think Houston could field a pretty solid pass defense but they are very green. Overall, I think teams will once more try to beat the Cougars on the ground and that will force their defensive line to sink or swim pretty quickly. While I like the back seven and believe that Houston should be solid through the air, this defense won’t be noticeably better than last year’s unit.

The schedule is fairly tough, drawing Southern Mississippi and Memphis from the East. Furthermore, they have to travel to Tulsa, UTEP and UCF, all of which are dangerous games. The non-conference schedule features three BCS conference foes, including a visit from Texas Tech. If Houston wins one of those games, I will be impressed. Overall, the Cougars should be as dangerous as anyone in the country on offense and will likely finish among the national leaders in scoring. However, I have some serious concerns about their run defense and that could spell trouble. That said, I think Houston has a serious advantage on most foes if the game turns into a shootout and I think that Keenum and company can overcome a run defense that might take time to coalesce. The Houston Cougars are my pick to win the C-USA West division thanks to their high powered offense and a ten win season is not outside the realm of possibility.

Houston Big Games: Sept. 26th vs. Texas Tech, Oct. 3rd @ UTEP, Oct. 24th vs. SMU, Oct. 31st vs. USM, Nov. 7th vs. Tulsa, Nov. 21st vs. Memphis, Nov. 28th vs. Rice

Houston’s Strength:

Quarterback Case Keenum threw for an incredible 5,020 yards and 44 touchdowns as a sophomore. With nearly all of his receiving targets back, the passing attack will be extremely impressive. Tyron Carrier caught 80 passes for 1,026 yards and nine touchdowns as a freshman. Those are some great numbers for a freshman even in this pass heavy offense. Patrick Edwards and Chaz Rodriguez are more than capable of filling in for the departed Mark Hafner. Add Chris Gilbert, L.J. Castille and Kierrie Johnson to the mix and Keenum can spread the ball all over the field. What makes the Houston offense so special is Bryce Beall. As a freshman the 5-11 back rushed for 1,247 yards and 13 touchdowns and even caught 34 passes for 496 yards and four touchdowns. The fact that the Cougars can be dangerous in the air and on the ground makes them one of the most dynamic offenses in the nation.

Houston’s Weakness:

However, the offensive line pretty much has to rebuild from scratch. There are some big bodies that have some experience who should be ready to fill in, but nobody is going to replace tackles SirVincent Rogers and Sebastian Vollmer very easily. Yet, it is the defense that is the largest problem. The unit only returns four starters and replacing end Phillip Hunt, who tallied 14.0 sacks and 18.5 tackles-for-loss will be impossible. The front four has to find a new rusher or the defense will be worse than it was last year. Cornerback Brandon Brinkley has to become a leader in the secondary while safeties Kenneth Fontenette and Ernest Miller are replaced. Most of the experience on defense is at the linebacker position. Marcus McGraw had a superb freshman campaign and led the team in tackles, but some other youngsters have to step up and fill in all the holes on that side of the ball.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Cougars:

Houston will win plenty of games by outscoring their opponents. But they have to be able to stop somebody if they want to compete for a C-USA championship. Keenum and company averaged over 40 points per game last year and that number could be more impressive this time around. However the defense gave up nearly 31 points per game in 2008 and that number could actually go up even higher. Either way, the Cougars will be fun to watch if you like offense.

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