Humanitarian Bowl | Predictions & Pick

uDrive Humanitarian Bowl
Saturday, December 18, 2010 at 5:30 pm on ESPN
Bronco Stadium – Boise, Idaho

vs.

Northern Illinois (10-3) vs Fresno State (8-4)

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Northern Illinois is a tough team to read right now.  They were heavy favourites in the MAC title game but lost to Miami(Ohio).  Then they lost their coach Jerry Kill to Minnesota.  That is a lot to swallow.  This team still is a veteran squad with a physical style but what will their mindset be?  For the Huskies to win they have to do what they do best, run the ball.  Against Miami they were stifled for only 92 yards and even though Chandler Harnish had his best throwing day of the season with three TDs and 281 yards it wasn’t enough.  Northern Illinois will have to figure the running game or else Fresno will beat them up.  There is hope, Fresno State gave up 318 yards on the ground in their last game against Illinois.

Fresno State coach Pat Hill loves taking on teams from the BCS conferences so it is possible he may be a bit over confident in his team’s ability to handle a team from the MAC.  Truth be told this is not one of his better teams.  They have had some ugly losses in the WAC that demonstrated they have sunk to the second tier in that conference.  Their best game of the season was probably their closing win against Illinois where they upset as 6.5 point dogs.  Last year Hill could rely on Ryan Matthews to gash teams but this year their offense is not nearly as explosive.  They could find it hard to manage long drives to score against the Huskies.

These two teams met back in ’90 and ’91 with each blowing out the other.  That history is ancient but they did have one common opponent this season, Illinois.  NIU lost to the Illini 28-22 back in September while Fresno State beat Illinois 25-23 the last week of the season.   Even more telling the Huskies lost while Illinois was struggling while the Bulldogs beat them when they were going good.  That says a lot about the two teams that looking at their records wouldn’t.

Game Prediction: These teams are probably about even but Fresno State has the advantage of having played a tougher schedule.  They also have the advantage of still having their coach, the fiery Pat Hill.  This game should be a very physical contest and I like the fearless Bulldogs to come out on top.

Score Prediction:
Fresno State – 28
Northern Illinois – 24

The spread is -1 for the Northern Illinois Huskies, with an over/under of 59.I like the Bulldogs to pull off the very minor upset..

Bet on the Northern Illinois/Fresno State game: “Where the Line Originates” and  get a generous 50% sign up bonus (up to $500) at Bookmaker.com.

Team records:

• Northern Illinois: 10-3 SU, 9-2-1 ATS
• Fresno State: 8-4 SU, 5-6 ATS

Northern Illinois Huskies most recently:

• When playing in December are 1-4
• When playing on turf are 9-1
• After being outgained are 7-3
• When playing outside the conference are 4-6

Fresno State Bulldogs most recently:

• When playing in December are 5-5
• When playing on turf are 6-4
• After being outgained are 7-3
• When playing outside the conference are 5-5

A few betting trends to consider:

• Northern Illinois is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
• Northern Illinois is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games
• Fresno State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games