Mississippi State Bulldogs 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Mississippi State 2008 Record: (4-8, 2-6)
Mississippi State 2008 Bowl: none
Mississippi State Coach: Dan Mullen (First year at Mississippi State, 0-0 overall)
Mississippi State Offensive Coordinator: Les Koenning
Mississippi State Defensive Coordinator: Carl Torbush
Mississippi State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Anthony Dixon, RB, 869 yards
• Passing: Tyson Lee, QB, 1,519 yards
• Receiving: Brandon McRae, WR, 518 yards
• Tackles: K.J. Wright, LB, 72
• Sacks: K.J. Wright, LB, 4.0
• Interceptions: Karlin Brown, LB, 2

Notable Mississippi State Returning Players: RB Christian Ducre, CB Charles Mitchell, S Zach Smith, RB Arnil Stallworth, CB Marcus Washington

Mississippi State Key Losses: DE Tim Bailey, DT Jessie Bowman, LB Dominic Douglas, S Keith Fitzhugh, G Michael Gates, S De’Mon Glanton, DE Cortez McCraney, CB Jasper O’Quinn, S Derek Pegues, WR Jamayel Smith

2008 was a big letdown in Starkville. After earning their first bowl berth under Sylvester Croom in 2007, the Bulldogs fell to a disappointing 4-8 finish and Croom, the 2007 SEC Coach of the Year and first black head coach in conference history, was fired after finishing with four losing seasons in five tries. The primary reason for all of the losing during his tenure was a very ineffective offense and the administration appears very cognizant of that fact as they hired Florida offensive coordinator Dan Mullen to take over. Can Mullen kickstart the inexperienced Bulldogs this fall?

Undoubtedly, the best player at Mullen’s disposal is senior tailback Anthony Dixon, who is a very powerful runner with over 2,000 career rush yards. While Florida’s offense featured a different type of tailback, there is no question that Dixon’s success will be a big part of this fall’s MSU offense. He’ll run behind a questionable line that struggled often in 2008 but I still expect to see some improvement in the Bulldog rushing attack this fall.

At quarterback, senior Tyson Lee and sophomore Chris Relf are battling for the starting job. Lee is more of an option to run the ball and I think he’s more likely to fit into the system that Mullen wants to run. Lee passed for over 1,500 yards and 7 touchdowns last fall and quarterbacked the team to three wins, so I expect him to earn the starting nod. His receivers are very inexperienced behind senior Brandon McRae, who had 51 receptions last season. As he’s the only returnee of note, expect a lot of freshmen to join him catching passes. Overall, Mississippi State fielded the conference’s worst offense last fall at only 15 points per game. However, I expect that an improved rushing attack, a new system and more experience at quarterback will allow the numbers to jump in Mullen’s first season. However, there’s no Tim Tebow or Percy Harvin on this unit and it will take time for MSU to accumulate enough playmakers to become a dangerous offense.

Defensively, I thought Mullen made a really good hire when he brought in former Alabama and Texas A&M defensive coordinator Carl Torbush. Mullen’s offensive background necessitated that his defensive coordinator be a strong veteran presence because I expect Mullen to spend more time working with his offense. Torbush is a strong hire and should do well as the main man defensively. He inherits a relatively inexperienced group that only returns one of its top five tacklers. However, I like the linebackers as junior KJ Wright was solid last fall and 2007’s top tackler, senior Jamar Chaney, is healthy and will start at middle linebacker.

Unfortunately, the linebackers are the only solid point on the defense. Up front, Torbush is likely to play a ton of freshman and junior college transfers and I don’t expect much of a pass rush. If this group can at least hold the point of attack then I think MSU fans will have to be satisfied. In the secondary, senior cornerback Marcus Washington is the only returning starter. There are a lot of young players who saw the field a lot last season so the drop off won’t be enormous. However, this is still a weak unit. I honestly don’t expect a very strong defensive showing from the Bulldogs this season and Mississippi State could have the conference’s worst defense.

The schedule is somewhat friendly as MSU only plays four true road games. Their non-conference schedule is highlighted by visits from Houston and Georgia Tech, both of which should be strong this fall. The good news in the SEC portion is that the Bulldogs have three home division games and draw Kentucky and Vanderbilt from the East. However, that draw also includes Florida and the Bulldogs will likely face six ranked teams this fall, making things very tough.

Overall, Mullen has inherited a big rebuilding job. He’s probably going to have to play a lot of young players while building towards the future and I honestly don’t have any expectations for this team as they’re thin on both sides of the ball and really don’t have any playmakers. I think that this is the conference’s weakest team. What will tell the tale of the tape is how Mullen recruits. Can he convince enough talent to come to Starkville based on his Florida resume while the Bulldogs continue to struggle on the field? I will be surprised if the Dawgs reach last season’s four win total this season but I would give Mullen time to turn things around if I were a MSU fan as his first recruiting class was solid. Just don’t expect him to win right away.

Mississippi State Big Games: Sept. 12th @ Auburn, Sept. 19th @ Vandy, Sept. 26th vs. LSU, Oct. 31st vs. Kentucky, Nov. 14th vs. Alabama, Nov. 21st @ Arkanasas (Little Rock), Nov. 28th vs. Ole Miss

Mississippi State’s Strength:

But will the offense be this team’s strength? Can quarterback Tyson Lee run the offense effectively? Certainly he will not be as effective as Tebow, but if he can get things rolling, Mississippi State can score some points…that is providing the receivers can help him out. Brandon McRae, the team’s leading pass catcher a year ago, is back and junior college transfer Leon Berry will look to make the unit much more respectable. While Lee is working out the offense, running back Anthony Dixon will be the star of the team. Dixon rushed for 869 yards last year and he will have to be the workhorse for the offense.

Mississippi State’s Weakness:

However, the offense will only work if the offensive line can get the job done. They gave up over three sacks per game last year and Lee needs more time than that. And the offense might have to hold some weight this year while the defense replaces a majority of their starters. The secondary, which only gave up 176.6 yards per game, has some major holes to replace with the departure of Keith Fitzhugh, De’Mon Glanton, Derek Pegues and Jasper O’Quinn. At least experienced players like Charles Mitchell, Zach Smith and Marcus Washington can step up. The linebackers have quite a bit more experience. K.J. Wright is ready to become a superstar and Karlin Brown is a versatile player who should step into a full time starting role.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Bulldogs:

There are questions on both sides of the ball. Is the defense good enough again to hold this team together? Can the offense change in a single season and score more than a mere 15.3 points per game? It will take some time for Coach Mullen to get his players into the system and to improve the overall talent in Starkville. In the meantime, Mississippi State will stay towards the bottom of the SEC West standings.

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