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Music City Bowl Bowl | Predictions & Pick

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Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

vs.

North Carolina (7-5, 4-4) versus Tennessee (6-6, 3-5)
Thursday, December 30, 6:30PM ET on ESPN
LP Field, Nashville TN

North Carolina favored by 1 ½, over/under 50 ½.

Two teams hoping to build on .500 seasons in 2011 will look to begin that process in the Music City Bowl as the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Tennessee Volunteers.

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The game being played in Nashville may work to an advantage for the Volunteers, since their fans only have to drive 183 miles to the game from Knoxville (Chapel Hill, where UNC calls home, is 514 miles away).

The bowl game marks the completion of Derek Dooley’s first season leading Rocky Top, having taken over the job from Lane Kiffin. The son of college coaching legend Vince Dooley, Derek is looking for his second bowl victory in as many tires, having led Louisiana Tech to a 17-10 win over NIU in the 2008 Independence Bowl.

His counterpart is the more experienced Butch Davis. He’s looking for his first bowl victory coaching the Tar heels, having lost in the Meineke Car Care Bowl in each of the last two seasons, including last year’s 19-17 defeat at the hands of the Pittsburgh Panthers. Davis won all four bowl games for which he was the head coach at the University of Miami, including a 37-20 victory over Florida in the 2001 Sugar Bowl.

The Volunteers received a great deal of balance offensively during the 2010 season. Junior tailback Tauren Poole led the ground attack with 994 yards rushing, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and scoring 11 rushing touchdowns. He finished fifth in the SEC in rushing yards, and his six 100-yard rushing games tied Auburn’s Cam Newton for the best in the SEC. Poole also contributed 18 receptions in the passing game, and scoring one additional touchdown through the air.

Matt Simms began the season as the starting quarterback, but the son of former New York Giants great Phil Simms struggled, throwing for eight touchdowns to go with five interceptions. So late in the season, Dooley replaced him with freshman sensation Tyler Bray. The change at quarterback sparked a four-game win streak down the stretch, including key wins over Ole Miss and Kentucky, to allow the Vols to become bowl eligible.

Denarius Moore will be counted upon to make plays in the passing game. Moore’s 912 receiving yards and nine touchdown receptions were tops on the club, while senior receiver Gerald Jones led the team in receptions with 46.

The Tar Heels were hoping for a stronger season, but feel fortunate to be one of nine ACC teams playing bowl games this season. The defense is led by the ferocious pass rushing abilities of Quinton Coples. Playing at the same school, which produced Lawrence Taylor and Julius Peppers, Coples continues that tradition of pass rushing excellence with 8 ½ sacks and 14 tackles for loss. Defensive back Da’Norris Searcy recorded four interceptions in just nine games.

The main man on offense is quarterback T.J. Yates. He finished second in the ACC in passing yards with 3184, and added 18 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. Dwight Jones is his main target, with 57 receptions for 895 yards and four touchdown receptions.

After surviving numerous hits to its program, UNC has overcome the odds just to make it to a bowl game doing well with its backups. The Vols however, will have no problem tearing up a Heels defense that has slipped from 6th ranked last year to around 50th.

The odds makers have the North Carolina Tar Heels as a -1.5 point favorite with an over/under of 50.5.

Matt’s Free Prediction: Tennessee 28, UNC 20

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Team records:

  • North Carolina: 7-5 SU, 6-5 ATS
  • Tennessee: 6-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS

North Carolina Tar Heels most recently:

  • When playing in December are 4-3
  • When playing on grass are 6-4
  • After outgaining opponent are 5-5
  • When playing outside the conference are 7-3

Tennessee Volunteers most recently:

  • When playing in December are 3-5
  • When playing on grass are 4-6
  • After outgaining opponent are 5-5
  • When playing outside the conference are 6-4

A few betting trends to consider:

  • North Carolina is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
  • Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee’s last 11 games

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