New Mexico State Aggies 2009 Football Betting Preview

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New Mexico State 2008 Record: (3-9, 1-7)
New Mexico State 2008 Bowl: none
New Mexico State Coach: DeWayne Walker (First year at New Mexico State, 0-0 overall)
New Mexico State Offensive Coordinator: Timm Rutenberg
New Mexico State Defensive Coordinator: DeWayne Walker
New Mexico State Returning Stats Leaders:

  • Rushing: Marquell Colston, RB, 384 yards
  • Passing: Donovan Roberts, RB, 9 yards
  • Receiving: Marcus Anderson, WR, 617 yards
  • Tackles: Nick Paden, LB, 107
  • Sacks: Jamar Cotton, LB, 3.0
  • Interceptions: Davon House, CB, 2; Nick Paden, LB, 2; Alphonso Powell, S, 2

Notable New Mexico State Returning Players: LB Justen Alford, OT Patrick Blount, LB Ross Connor, C Mike Grady, LB Sam King, G Joseph Palmer, FB Brandon Perez, LB Jason Scott, OT Kyle Smith, G Chuck Taylor,

New Mexico State Key Losses: DE Rhyan Anderson, S Brennan Baiamonte, CB Marvin Betts, C Richard Bolin, LB La’Auli Fonoti, OT Polo Gutierrez, WR A.J. Harris, QB Chase Holbrook, DT Oren Long, WR Wes Neiman, LB Chris Nwoko, S Derrick Richardson, WR Chris Williams

New Mexico State 2009 Preview, Picks, & Odds.

The trifecta of recent ineptitude at the bottom of the WAC is completed with the inclusion of New Mexico State. The Aggies’ last winning season was in 2002 and since then they have posted a 19-53 record, including a 0-12 record in 2005! Their conference record is 9-35 since and new boss DeWayne Walker is the 3 rd head coach. To top it all off, the Aggies haven’t beaten rival New Mexico in six years! With only nine starters back, it will be another long season in the desert.

The Aggies’ rushing offense was one of the country’s worst last fall, averaging only 55 yards per game en route to a 22 point per game season. While their passing game was much stronger, they now face the prospect of replacing the school’s all time leading passer (3 year starter Chase Holbrook) with a group that has never attempted a pass at the college level! Don’t expect the new starter to get a lot of help from the receivers either: Only senior Marcus Anderson, who caught 50 passes for 617 yards and 9 touchdowns last fall, returns any experience. The Aggies are going to take a big step back through the air this season, though the return of three starters on the O-Line makes me believe that Walker will try to establish a much better running game. Still, the Aggies will likely be a very poor offensive team.

On defense, NMSU will switch from a 3-3-5 look to a more conventional 4-3 defense to fit Walker’s style. Unfortunately, the entire line will be comprised of younger players and last year’s backups and I think they’ll struggle. The good news is that the linebackers behind them are all seniors and all started last fall. Nick Paden and Jamar Cotton combined for 191 tackles last year and will be relied upon to support the young D-Line during the transition. The secondary is another big concern as junior cornerback Davon House is the only returning starter. The Aggies will need to find some contributors quickly for the pass defense to gel. Overall, the New Mexico State defense might actually be a little bit better than last year but they’re still one of the conference’s weakest units.

The schedule, which features 13 games thanks to a trip to Hawai’i, is fairly difficult. The Aggies have seven road games, including trips to rival New Mexico (where they have lost 13 out of 14 games), heavyweight Ohio State, San Diego State and conference foes Louisiana Tech, Boise State and San Jose State. In fact, the combination of inexperience, lack of talent and tough home games leads me to believe that the Aggies will be lucky to match last year’s three wins! New Mexico State might be one of the worst teams in college football this season.

New Mexico State Big Games: Sept. 5th vs. Idaho, Sept. 26 @ New Mexico, Oct. 10th vs. Utah State, Nov. 28th @ San Jose State

2009 New Mexico State Football Schedule | 2009 WAC Football Preview
New Mexico State Sportsbooks

New Mexico State’s Strength:

Just bringing in Coach Walker alone should make the defense better. This is a defense that could never stop the run and gave up a lot of points even when they were not giving up a lot of yards. Coach Walker and his staff will toughen up the unit right away. There are a ton of experienced linebackers who will be in the mix. Nick Paden is the best of the bunch, but Justen Alford, Ross Connor and Sam King are also experienced seniors. The secondary, which ranked third in the nation in pass defense, returns Alphonso Powell and Davon House and those are two quality players to build around. However, the defensive line was pretty bad in 2008 and failed to get consistent pressure on the quarterback or stop the run. The change in philosophy will help, but Coach Walker also needs some young players to step up and fill the void.

New Mexico State’s Weakness:

Last year Marquell Colston only carried the ball 82 times for 384 yards. Now the senior will be asked to carry the load. Fellow senior Tony Glynn will help out when necessary, but this offense could live and die with Colston. This is a group that wants to run more often, but even the old coaching regime would have to run more often now that quarterback Chase Holbrook and receivers Chris Williams and A.J. Harris are gone. New offensive coordinator Timm Rutenberg will not need four starting receivers like the team did last year, so the Aggies should be in good shape at that position led by Marcus Anderson. The bigger question is who is going to be the quarterback? Junior college transfer Jeff Fleming is the likely option, but recruit Tanner Rust could get into the mix as well. Either way, the quarterbacks are not going to put up numbers anywhere near what Holbrook did during his career at NMSU. The Aggies just need the quarterback to keep the turnovers down and hope the running game can give some space to pass every once in a while.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Aggies:

The offensive line does return five players with starting experience, but they do lose Polo Gutierrez and Richie Bolin who were the best two linemen last season. The group gave up a ton of sacks, but that happens when just about every play is a pass play. New Mexico State just has to groom lineman like Chuck Taylor to block for the run, not just the pass.

2008 New Mexico State Aggies Team Stats:

  • Rushing Offense: 54.25
    (118th in nation, 9th in conference)
  • Passing Offense: 301.33 (10, 1)
  • Total Offense: 355.58 (64, 4)
  • Scoring Offense: 22.17 (89, 7)
  • Rushing Defense: 220.17 (115, 9)
  • Pass Defense: 159.42 (3, 1)
  • Total Defense: 379.58 (75, 5)
  • Scoring Defense: 34.08 (105, 7)
  • Turnover Margin: -.50 (89, 6)
  • Sacks: 1.58 (84, 6)
  • Sacks Allowed: 3.75 (117, 8 )

New Mexico State Betting Odds

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