North Carolina State Wolfpack 2009 Football Betting Preview

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North Carolina State 2008 Record: (6-7, 4-4)
North Carolina State 2008 Bowl: Papajohns.com Bowl vs. Rutgers (L 23-29)
North Carolina State Coach: Tom O’Brien (11-14 at North Carolina State, 86-59 overall)
North Carolina State Offensive Coordinator: Dana Bible
North Carolina State Defensive Coordinator: Mike Archer
North Carolina State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Jamelle Eugene, RB, 442 yards
• Passing: Russell Wilson, QB, 1,955 yards
• Receiving: Owen Spencer, WR, 691 yards
• Tackles: Ray Michael, LB, 85
• Sacks: Willie Young, DE, 6.5
• Interceptions: Nate Irving, LB, 4

Notable North Carolina State Returning Players: TE George Bryan, S Justin Byers, C Ted Larsen, OT Jerraill McCuller, DE Shea McKeen, DT Alan Michael Cash, CB DeAndre Morgan, OT Jake Vermiglio, WR Jarvis Williams, DE Willie Young

North Carolina State Key Losses: G John Bedics, RB Andre Brown, CB Jeremy Gray, G Meares Green, TE Anthony Hill, LB Robbie Leonard, S J.C. Neal, DT Keith Willis

2008 was a big step forward for the Wolfpack. A tough 2-6 start was forgotten after a four game winning streak to close out the year earned their first bowl berth in three seasons. Even more impressive, their winning streak was responsible for ending the conference title hopes for no less than three different teams! Head coach Tom O’Brien was highly respected during his tenure at Boston College as he took the Eagles to 8 straight bowl games before coming to turn around the NC State program. Expectations are very high entering his 3rd season as there are fourteen returning starters and the Wolfpack might have their best team since San Diego Chargers starting quarterback Phillip Rivers was breaking records in Raleigh.

The biggest reason for optimism is the presence of sophomore quarterback Russell Wilson, who threw for 1,955 yards and 17 touchdowns against only ONE interception! He also contributed 388 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground to earn 1st team All-ACC honors and was recently named the 2009 ACC Preseason Offensive Player of the Year by the media covering the conference. Russell’s importance is paramount as the Pack was leading Rutgers in their bowl game by ten points at half but an injury prevented his return and Rutgers roared back for the victory. His health is by far the biggest key to a strong season after missing parts or all of four games last year. However, Russell’s supporting cast is also talented, led by junior receivers Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams, who combined for 57 catches, 1123 yards and 9 touchdowns last fall. With some solid depth behind them, expect Russell to spread the wealth around a talented group. Up front, three starters are back and the depth and experience is significantly better than it was at this time last year as O’Brien had to move a few defensive linemen to bolster their flagging depth. I expect the line to be even better this fall. The big question is who will carry the load of the running game after Andre Brown moved on to the NFL? There are a lot of options, the most experienced of which is senior Jamelle Eugene, who ran for 442 yards last year and also caught 26 passes. However, perpetually injured senior Toney Baker was hugely touted out of high school and could provide an infusion of talent and skill along with fellow blue chipper Brandon Barnes, a redshirt freshman. I think the pieces are in place for the Wolfpack to field an improved running game by committee. Overall, the Pack should have one of the conference’s best passing attacks with Wilson in charge. While it would be ludicrous to assume that Wilson will only throw a single interception this fall, he is probably the league’s best quarterback when healthy. Factor in an improved running game and NC State could see a big jump in offensive production.

The defense should also be much better after giving up more than 26 points per game last fall. The defensive line returns three senior starters, led by end Willie Young, who racked up 6.5 sacks in 2008. In fact, the Pack was actually pretty solid against the run last fall and I expect this veteran-laden unit to also provide an improved pass rush. At linebacker, senior Ray Michel led the team in tackles last fall and should be a major playmaker along with junior Nate Irving (80 tackles and 4 picks in 2008!) behind their stout line. The Wolfpack allowed 50 rush yards per game less last season and should improve even further this fall with so much experience back in the front seven. The big question will be the secondary, which was beaten to the tune of 250 yards per game last year while allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete over 62 percent of their pass attempts! Junior cornerback DeAndre Morgan appears to be the star of the group after making 60 stops and snagging 2 picks last fall. However, a lot of young players saw significant action and that could simultaneously explain their poor performance and give hope for improvement this season. Another important statistic is that during the Pack’s four game winning streak to close the year, their defense only gave up 18 points per game! That means that there was significant improvement as the year progressed and I am confident that O’Brien’s third defense will be his best at NC State.

The schedule is somewhat difficult, beginning with the non-conference portion. The Wolfpack hosts South Carolina and Pittsburgh but their other two games are against D-1AA opponents! Their four home games outside of ACC play gives them a whopping eight home games this fall, tops in the country! The Pack has to travel to Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College and Virginia Tech, but they don’t face any back to back road games and finish with three of their final four games at home, though their final three games are against tough opposition. Much like O’Brien’s tenure at Boston College, his first two teams here struggled to get their feet underneath them. However, his third team at BC won eight games and I think that he could duplicate that feat this season in Raleigh. North Carolina State looks improved on both sides of the football and should be brimming with confidence after their strong close to the 2008 season. I expect the Wolfpack to be a strong contender to reach their first ACC Title game and this team could have eight or nine wins this season.

North Carolina State Big Games: Sept. 3rd vs. South Carolina, Oct. 3rd @ Wake Forest, Oct. 31st @ FSU, Nov. 14th vs. Clemson, Nov. 21st @ Virginia Tech, Nov. 28th vs. UNC

North Carolina State’s Strength:

Those upsets are much more likely to happen when quarterback Russell Wilson is healthy. Last year Wilson threw 17 touchdown passes and just one interception. The rest of the quarterbacks threw three touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. But Wilson is not just about passing. He is a quality rusher as well and tallied 388 yards and four scores on the ground. And all of that was as a freshman. He could be a very special talent sooner or later and it is just as likely to happen sooner rather than later. The problem is he has to stay healthy by avoiding big hits when he does scramble and hope the three returning starters on the offensive line can prevent him from getting sacked as much as he did in 2008.

North Carolina State’s Weakness:

The strongest part of the North Carolina State defense last year was its front seven. They did not get into the backfield too often, but they did do a decent job against the run. With three linemen and two linebackers returning, the rush defense should be just fine. Willie Young is a good pass rusher, but the team needs Shea McKeen and others to step up and keep consistently getting into the backfield. That will give a revamped secondary some time to get used to their new surroundings. However, the best talent on the defensive side of the ball is at the linebacker spot where Nate Irving and Ray Michael return. Michael is a tackling machine and Irving will do plenty to help out the secondary.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Wolfpack:

Will seven starters returning make the defense any better? They ranked last in the Atlantic Coast Conference in pass defense, total defense and scoring defense. It will not take much for the defense to be better, but how much better can they be? If the defense is at least serviceable, North Carolina State could beat anybody in the conference. That is assuming Wilson can stay healthy and be the dynamic offensive threat that he should be.

North Carolina State Betting Odds

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