Purdue Boilermakers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Purdue 2008 Record: (4-8, 2-6)
Purdue 2008 Bowl: none
Purdue Coach: Danny Hope (First year at Purdue, 35-22 overall)
Purdue Offensive Coordinator: Gary Nord
Purdue Defensive Coordinator: Donn Landhom
Purdue Returning Stats Leaders:

  • Rushing: Frank Halliburton, RB, 37 yards
  • Passing: Joey Elliott, QB, 81 yards
  • Receiving: Keith Smith, WR, 486 yards
  • Tackles: Torri Williams, S, 83
  • Sacks: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, 7.0
  • Interceptions: Dwight Mclean, S, 2; Torri Williams, S, 2

Notable Purdue Returning Players: LB Chris Carlino, G Eric Hedstrom, LB Joe Holland, OT Zach Jones, CB Brandon King, DT Mke Neal, CB David Pender, G Ken Plue, OT Zach Reckman

Purdue Key Losses: DT Ryan Baker, C Cory Benton, S Frank Duong, LB Anthony Heygood, DE Alex Mape, WR Greg Orton, QB Curtis Painter, RB Kory Sheets, K Chris Summers, WR Desmond Tardy, TE Jerry Wasikowski, WR Brandon Whittington

Coach Joe Tiller’s career went out with a whimper as his Purdue team failed to reach a bowl game. And the immediate future does not look too bright either as the offense has to replace just about all of their experienced skill players. Coach Danny Hope was on the sidelines last year so the transition from one coaching staff to another should be quite smooth, but this a group that needs an upgrade in talent before they can start thinking about becoming a force in the Big Ten.

2009 Purdue Football Schedule | 2009 BIG TEN Football Preview
Purdue Sportsbooks

Purdue’s Strength:

Purdue 2009 Preview, Picks, & Odds.

Continuing the trend of disappointment, we arrive with the Purdue Boilermakers. 2008 was longtime coach Joe Tiller’s final season and there were high hopes in West Lafayette entering the year. However, Purdue’s high-powered offense inexplicably shut down despite the presence of star quarterback Curtis Painter, who is now the Colts’ backup quarterback. Despite a tough 4-8 season, Tiller was sent out in style with a season-ending blowout of rival Indiana. This fall, new head coach Danny Hope embarks upon a rebuilding project that might not take as long as most people believe. Hope has great ties to the state of Florida and brought in 14 recruits in his first class from the Sunshine state! Can Hope exceed expectations despite a tough schedule?

On offense, the Boilermakers will miss Painter’s talent despite the offense’s struggles last year. Senior Joey Elliott is expected to be the man under center this fall and he is very inexperienced. There is also a dearth of experience at wide receiver behind junior Keith Smith, who made 49 catches last fall. Purdue passed the ball for 250 yards per game in 2008 and if they reach that number this season I will be surprised.

Things are equally questionable at the tailback position, where no returning player had more than 40 yards rushing last fall! Sophomore Ralph Bolden was the star of spring practice and will share time with senior Jaycen Taylor and true freshman Al-Terek McBurse. I expect Hope to run the football much more often this fall than in Tiller’s ‘basketball on grass’ system and having a group of talented tailbacks is a great start. They’ll run behind an improved offensive line which returns four starters. However, it looks like three starters will be underclassmen and that could lead to some growing pains. Overall, Purdue has a lot of inexperienced players who will be taking key roles in the offense this fall. That means that there will probably be plenty of mistakes but I think that the potential for a solid offense by the end of the year is definitely there.

As surprising as Purdue’s offensive implosion was last season, the play of their defense was perhaps even more shocking. Purdue actually fielded a very competitive defense, holding Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan State and Iowa to 22 points or less in regulation! The Boilermakers were quite stout against the pass, allowing only 185 yards per game. This fall, eight of their top ten tacklers return and Purdue will be looking to produce another strong defensive performance. Things will need to improve up front, where senior tackle Mike Neal is the team’s strongest returning lineman. Neal is a force in the middle and racked up 5.5 sacks last fall. Junior end Ryan Kerrigan is also a strong contributor and made 7 sacks in 2008. Purdue usually has a lot of talent on the defensive line and I think that they’ll have a much stronger D-Line this season.

The linebackers also look solid despite losing leading tackler Anthony Heygood. Sophomores Joe Holland and Chris Carlino should benefit from last season’s experience and I expect both to play a big part in an improved run defense. The secondary also brings back a lot of experience and should start four seniors. Expect another strong year defending the pass and overall Purdue has a much stronger defense than most observers realize.

The schedule is a definite mixed bag. The Boilermakers travel to Oregon (against whom they blew a 20-6 4th quarter lead last season) while welcoming rival Notre Dame to Ross-Ade Stadium. That’s a pretty tough non-conference portion. In Big Ten play, Purdue avoids both Iowa and Penn State and hosts Northwestern, OSU, Illinois and Michigan State. With seven home games, Purdue is in position to surprise a lot of people.

Overall, Purdue is nowhere near as bad as I thought when I originally started researching this preview. Their offense is going to look different and rely a lot more on the run so they’re not going to be one of the league’s more explosive units. However, they should score enough points to allow their solid defense to make some games interesting. I think Purdue could surprise some teams this year and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them pull a few upsets. However, despite avoiding PSU and Iowa, this is still a pretty tough schedule and the Boilermakers play one of the Big Ten’s best non-conference schedules. Despite their solid defense, I think that the Boilermakers will be hard-pressed to earn bowl eligibility and I think they’re in line for another 4-8 season. That said, whenever you have a good defense then you have the potential to win some games that you shouldn’t and Big Ten teams need to be careful not to overlook Purdue.

Purgue Big Games: Sept. 12th @ Oregon, Sept. 26th vs. Notre Dame, Oct. 3rd vs. Northwestern, Oct. 17th vs. OSU, Oct. 24th vs. Illinois, Oct. 31st @ Wisconsin, Nov. 7th vs. Michigan, Nov. 14th vs. MSU, Nov. 21st @ Indiana

Purdue’s Weakness:

The only good news on the offensive side of the ball is the return of four starting linemen. Quarterback Curtis Painter is gone and so are his three best receivers in Greg Orton, Desmond Tardy and Brandon Whittington. And even running back Kory Sheets, who tallied 1,131 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground has run out of eligibility. That leaves a whole slew of holes to fill. Joey Elliott is the most experienced quarterback, but Caleb Terbush is an interesting option who took advantage of Elliott’s shoulder injury in the spring and did a decent job filling in for him. It is still Elliott’s job to lose, but Terbush will give him a good push in the fall. Receiver Aaron Valentin and Keith Smith are the likely candidates to be the team’s top receiver. Valentin came on strong at the end of last season, but the senior has still only caught 11 passes during his collegiate career at Purdue.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Boilermakers:

While the passing attack works its way back into the swing of things, Purdue will have to depend on the ground game. Coach Hope would prefer to spread the ball out by passing it…just like Purdue usually does, but they still have to mix things up every once in a while and leave the ball on the ground. And finding somebody who can replace Sheets and at least be a threat to run is just as important as finding a quarterback and a few wide receivers.

2008 Purdue Boilermakers Team Stats:

  • Rushing Offense: 124.83
    (85th in nation, 10th in conference)
  • Passing Offense: 249.58 (29, 2)
  • Total Offense: 374.42 (48, 4)
  • Scoring Offense: 24.67 (68, 7)
  • Rushing Defense: 174.83 (93, 11)
  • Pass Defense: 183.25 (24, 1)
  • Total Defense: 358.08 (61, 8 )
  • Scoring Defense: 25.08 (64, 7)
  • Turnover Margin: -.25 (77, 8 )
  • Sacks: 1.92 (58, 9)
  • Sacks Allowed: 2.00 (65, 5)

Purdue Betting Odds

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