Red River Shootout: Oklahoma vs Texas

Game Preview – #18 Oklahoma (3-2) vs #2 Texas (5-0), Saturday, Noon

Game Preview - #18 Oklahoma (3-2) vs #2 Texas (5-0), Saturday, Noon

I was listening to a podcast the other day when it was highlighted that there are never any good games starting at 12:00 EST anymore.  This is partially an indictment of the Big Ten who pretty much owns that time slot making us sit through Northwestern/Indiana/Purdue/Minnesota matchups before the real action begins at 3:30.  But mostly it is because the TV gods have determined that late games, especially night games on national TV are so lucrative.

Well people can put their complaints away this week as the annual Red River Shootout (Rivalry – lame) between Oklahoma and Texas kicks off at noon this Saturday.  Despite Oklahoma’s two losses (each by a point in games ace QB Sam Bradford did not finish) this is still a pivotal matchup.  Oklahoma may be out of the BCS Championship picture at this time but they would love nothing more than to spoil Texas’ chances as well.  Plus there is a movement out there that if the Sooners run the table in the Big 12 they might be able to sneak into the title game given the closeness of their losses and the surrounding circumstances.  I don’t buy it but stranger things have happened.

On to the game…If Bradford is completely healthy I really like Oklahoma’s chances.  Texas has sleepwalked through parts of each of its games this year and Colt McCoy has been more careless than usual with the ball.  He was the difference maker in the second half of last year’s game but if memory serves the Longhorns were the underdog in that one.  This is not the case this year they are -3.

Here is what I see happening.  Despite the apparent health of Bradford I think the Sooners are going to come out running the ball.  Texas hasn’t faced a decent running team all season and Oklahoma would be wise to try and assert some authority with their two NFL bound backs.  Their offense is still plenty explosive but they need to establish some toughness.  Texas is going to counter with their dink and dunk passing game hoping to break Jordan Shipley for a long gain or two.  If the Sooners keep everything in front of them then they should be able to grab a victory and reverse a recent trend of losses in big games.

Prediction:
Oklahoma - 30
Texas - 21

Take Oklahoma +3

Notes/Trends

-Texas averaged only 1.8 YPC against Colorado last week and wasn’t much better against Texas Tech either at 3.3 YPC

-Texas is 5-0 but only 1-4 ATS this season

-Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS as an underdog