SMU vs UCF | Predictions

Conference USA Championship Game Predictions

vs.

Central Florida (9-3) vs Southern Methodist (7-5)
Saturday, December 4, 2010 at 12:00 pm on ESPN2 - Bright House Networks Stadium – Orlando, Florida

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The Central Florida Knights are one of the better teams in America…they just haven’t beaten anybody to really prove it.  They came close against Kansas State and NC State but couldn’t seal the deal.  That shouldn’t be the case on Saturday when they are the significant favourites against SMU.  This year’s version at UCF has the tough D that has been a staple since George O’Leary took over but they also have an offense that can score, making them a rare dual threat in a conference known for busting lights on the scoreboard.  Look for the Knights to impress kicking off Championship Saturday.

Most thought it would be Houston in this spot but SMU has been pretty good in conference play with a 6-2 record.  They can still be unpredictable with Kyle Padron leading the charge but in burly running back Zack Line they have found a great compliment to the passing game.  The problem is their offense is not strong enough to overcome only a mediocre defense.  They can win some shootouts if pressed but if the offense struggles at all their defense can’t make the necessary plays to keep the game close (See TCU game).  This team could be a real force in C-USA next year but I don’t think they can topple UCF for the championship this season.

SMU has never beaten UCF.  They lost twice in 2007 and 2008 and neither game was close.  If you subscribe to the old adage that defense wins championships then you have to side with the Knights who are clearly superior in that area.  In terms of the spread, UCF is 9-3 ATS this season which I think means that they are generally a bit better than expected.  To me the line this week seems pretty fair.

Game Prediction: UCF is not super explosive on offense so I expect this to be a game at the half.  Their defense sets up their offense well and by the time the third quarter rolls around they should have this one well in hand.  At that point you will start to see their dominance but watch out for a late SMU score as a spread buster.

Score Prediction:
Central Florida – 31
SMU – 24

The spread is -9 for the Knights…I like this one closer to a single score.

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Team records:

• Southern Methodist: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
• Central Florida: 9-3 SU, 8-3 ATS

Southern Methodist Mustangs most recently:

• When playing in December are 1-1
• When playing on grass are 3-7
• After being outgained are 5-5
• When playing within the conference are 7-3

Central Florida Knights most recently:

• When playing in December are 1-4
• When playing on grass are 7-3
• After outgaining opponent are 8-2
• When playing within the conference are 9-1

A few betting trends to consider:

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Methodist’s last 7 games
• Southern Methodist is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
• Southern Methodist is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games on the road
• Central Florida is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
• Central Florida is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Central Florida’s last 8 games