Tennessee Volunteers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Tennessee 2008 Record: (5-7, 3-5)
Tennessee 2008 Bowl: none
Tennessee Coach: Lane Kiffin (First year at Tennessee, 0-0 overall)
Tennessee Offensive Coordinator: Jim Chaney
Tennessee Defensive Coordinator: Monte Kiffin
Tennessee Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Montario Hardesty, RB, 271 yards
• Passing: Jonathan Crompton, QB, 889 yards
• Receiving: Gerald Jones, WR, 323 yards
• Tackles: Rico McCoy, LB, 87
• Sacks: Eric Berry, S, 3.0; Chris Walker, DE, 3.0
• Interceptions: Eric Berry, S, 7

Notable Tennessee Returning Players: DE Wes Brown, K Daniel Lincoln, C Josh McNeil, CB Dennis Rogan, OT Chris Scott, QB Nick Stephens, TE Luke Stocker, DT Dan Williams

Tennessee Key Losses: DE Robert Ayers, DT Demonte Bolden, RB Lennon Creer, RB Arian Foster, OT Ramon Foster, LB Nevin McKenzie, S Demetrice Morley, WR Lucas Taylor, CB DeAngelo Willingham, LB Ellix Wilson

Last year was a shocking season in Knoxville. The Volunteers boasted the conference’s 3rd best defense, allowing less than 17 points per game and were loaded with talent. However, their offense was atrocious, failing miserably at scoring points and protecting the football. Tennessee responded by firing legendary head coach Phil Fulmer late in the year after sixteen seasons in charge and the Vols’ 5-7 finish ended his wonderful career with a whimper. In his place, the Vols hired bombastic youngster Lane Kiffin, who immediately brought in one of the country’s best coaching staffs and a top 10 recruiting class. With most of the key contributors from an exceptional defense back, the big question is whether the Kiffster’s offensive background will allow the Vols to produce a serviceable attack.

How bad was the fall-off on offense in 2008? The Vols averaged a measly 17 points per game, which was barely half of their 2007 production! The largest part of the drop off was because their passing game barely produced half the yardage it did during the previous year. Unfortunately for the Vols, there hasn’t been any change at the quarterback position. Senior Jonathan Crompton won the job in camp after throwing for less than 900 yards last fall and his options at wide receiver are just as depressing. Junior Gerald Jones is one of the most athletic players in the SEC but he’ll miss the season’s first month with a high ankle sprain and it looks like the starting wide receivers will either be inexperienced upperclassmen or true freshmen. I’m not so sure if the Vols will have a much improved passing game in 2009 despite last year’s terrible numbers.

On the other hand, the Vols have a veritable plethora of tailbacks available. Senior Montario Hardesty appears to have won the starting job after scoring 6 touchdowns last fall and a trifecta of talented underclassmen, including two of the top ten prep tailbacks in the country, should provide plenty of depth. They’ll run behind what should be a very veteran offensive line that was among the country’s best two years ago. Unfortunately, it looks like 4th year starting senior Josh McNeill’s career could be over thanks to a preseason knee injury, which will definitely set back the line as he made all of the protection calls. I think that Tennessee could field a solid running game and that should be the focus of their offense in the early going. On top of that, Kiffin has experimented with a Wildcat formation and that could provide an interesting and badly needed changeup. I expect the Vols to be more productive on offense this season but no one should mistake them for the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners.

The defense is another matter entirely. The best defensive player in the entire conference is junior safety Eric Berry, who made 72 tackles and 3 sacks last fall while snagging 7 interceptions, earning 1st team All-American honors. Berry will be the star of what should be a very strong pass defense which picked off seventeen passes last year. I also expect new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, who is one of the best at his job in the country after inventing the Cover-2 scheme in Tampa Bay, to find plenty of ways to use Berry to make him even more dangerous this fall.

Up front, the Vols actually fielded a strong run defense in 2008, barely allowing opponents to average over 100 yards per game. With former Ole Miss head boss Ed Orgeron in charge, I think that the defensive line should once more anchor a tough run defense. With two solid senior defensive tackles returning in the starting lineup, there is plenty of talent available. At linebacker, senior Rico McCoy is the lone returning starter but he had 87 tackles last fall and earned 2nd team All-SEC honors. I expect him to be one of the league’s best linebackers this season and there should be solid production around him. While I don’t think that the Vols will improve significantly upon last season’s performance, I still definitely expect Tennessee to field one of the SEC’s best defenses this season thanks to a lot of star power and an improved pass rush from the defensive line.

The schedule is a mixed bag. The good news is that Tennessee has eight home games this fall and they host their toughest out of conference opponent, UCLA. However, three of their four road games look awfully intimidating: Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss. If Tennessee wins one of those three, I’ll be surprised. This especially applies if they’re even competitive against Florida after Kiffin’s well-publicized shenanigans this summer involving stealing recruits and accusing Urban Meyer of NCAA Violations. However, the Vols have a legitimate chance to open up 4-1 going into a home clash with Georgia as they don’t face anyone of note out of conference aside from the Bruins.

Overall, Lane Kiffin isn’t going to turn the Vols into a ten win team right away. Tennessee doesn’t have a quarterback right now or waiting in the wings, something that Kiffin and company have been struggling to fix in recruiting. On top of that, some of the Vols’ best talent is very young and everyone is playing in a new system this season, which means that there could be some growing pains in Knoxville. However, I like the talent on defense and the potential of the running game enough to say that Tennessee should return to a bowl game this fall. The schedule is also friendly enough early for the possibility of a strong start, which will only build confidence. Just don’t expect the Volunteers to win more than seven or eight games.

Tennessee Big Games: Sept. 12th vs. UCLA, Sept. 19th @ Florida, Oct. 10th vs. Georgia, Oct. 24th @ Alabama, Oct. 31st vs. South Carolina, Nov. 14th @ Ole Miss, Nov. 21st vs. Vanderbilt

Tennessee’s Strength:

But at least Tennessee has some quality players to build around. The defensive back seven is in good shape with strong safety Eric Berry. Berry is arguably the best player in the entire conference and that is saying something. Berry tallied 72 tackles, 8.5 tackles-for-loss, three sacks and seven interceptions. Linebacker Rico McCoy is the other staple on this team. He tallied 87 tackles last year and will be the leader of the entire defense. Without Nevin McKenzie and Ellix Wilson by his side, McCoy will have a lot of work to do. The other big advantage for the Volunteers is their depth at running back. Arian Foster and Lennon Creer are gone, but Tennessee still has Montario Hardesty and some promising youngsters like Tauren Poole and Toney Williams who can tally quite a few carries.

Tennessee’s Weakness:

And Coach Kiffin will need his running game to be impressive since the quarterback situation is such a mess. Jonathan Crompton and Nick Stephens split starts last year and neither had any success getting the anemic offense moving. Crompton is the more experienced option, but sophomore B.J. Coleman was turning some heads. Coleman had a good spring, culminating with a two touchdown performance during the spring game. Then he left the team. It looks like Crompton will likely get the nod on opening day, but he will be on a short leash. The offensive line did not help out the offense too much, but at least center Josh McNeil and tackle Chris Scott are back.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Volunteers:

The offensive line will have some trouble and so will the defensive line. Replacing Robert Ayers, a first round draft pick, will not be easy and Demonte Bolden was an underappreciated defensive tackle. That means the defense should take a small step back this year, but the offense cannot get any worse so with any luck Tennessee will at least be as good as they were last season. The difference will be the new super staff that Coach Kiffin has assembled. If they can work their magic quickly, Tennessee can have a decent year, but at the minimum this is a group that should go to a bowl game.

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