Utah Utes 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Utah 2008 Record: (5-7, 2-6)
Utah 2008 Bowl: none
Utah Coach: Mike Sanford (11-36 at Utah, 11-36 overall)
Utah Offensive Coordinator: Todd Berry
Utah Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Therrell
Utah Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Matt Asiata, RB, 707 yards
• Passing: Corbin Louks, QB, 104 yards
• Receiving: David Reed, WR, 427 yards
• Tackles: Mike Wright, LB, 81
• Sacks: Stevenson Sylvester, LB, 3.5
• Interceptions: Robert Johnson, S, 4

Notable Utah Returning Players: OT Zane Beadles, S Joe Dale, DT Kenape Eliapo, LB Nai Fotu, TE Chris Joppru, DE Koa Misi, G Caleb Schlauderaff, DT Derrick Shelby, C Zane Taylor

Utah Key Losses: WR Freddie Brown, WR Brent Casteel, G Robert Conley, WR Bradon Godfrey, OT Dustin Hensel, QB Brian Johnson, DE Paul Kruger, RB Darrell Mack, CB Brice McCain, DT Greg Newman, K/P Louie Sakoda, CB Sean Smith

2008 was perhaps the biggest season in Utah football history. The Utes posted their 2 nd undefeated season in five years, earning the school its 2 nd BCS bowl berth. The Utes then shocked the world by improving their record to 2-0 in Bowl Championship Series play by badly beating Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Their final record of 13-0 and national ranking of 2 nd at the end of the year were both the highest in school history. The Utes were also impressive in non-conference play, beating Michigan at the Big House to start the year before knocking off Oregon State, who finished with 9 wins and nearly won the Pac Ten! Utah has some serious losses to deal with this season, including ten starters and both coordinators. However, the Utes still have a lot of talent on hand and should still impact the conference championship race despite their losses.

The offense’s biggest hole will be in the passing game, where quarterback Brian Johnson departs after three years in charge and his top three receivers have also moved on. Johnson’s likely replacement will be junior Terrance Cain, who was the 2008 Junior College Offensive Player of the Year and impressed in Spring Practice with the Utes. While he likely won’t match Johnson’s productivity, Utah should still boast a solid passing attack. At receiver, senior David Reed is the top returning wideout after catching 25 passes for 6 touchdowns last season while averaging an impressive 17.1 yards per catch. Cain’s first year should also feature an improved rushing attack led by senior Matt Asiata, who led the team in rushing last fall with 707 yards and 12 touchdowns. As the Utes lost over 250 carries thanks to graduation, Asiata will be expected to carry a much heavier load this fall. I expect him to have a very big year behind a very good offensive line that returns three starters. While the right side of the line departs, including a 1 st team All-MWC selection, Utah can comfortably rely upon 1 st team All-MWC tackle Zane Beadles to lead another great line. With a new quarterback and questions at receiver, I expect Utah to put more emphasis on the run. Overall, Cain’s development and the emergence of another receiving option behind Reed will be the biggest two factors in whether the Utes can come close to last season’s 37 points per game average. However, I have no doubt that the Utes will feature a strong running game (their new OC was the running backs coach last season) and this will still be a solid offense despite all the turnover at the skill positions.

The defense has far less questions. Six starters return from a unit which held opponents under 20 points per game for the 3 rd consecutive season and the 5 th in the last six years! The top four tacklers are all back as well and Utah should once again be very formidable on defense. Up front, senior defensive end Koa Misi is the lone returning starter and should be a huge force after making 68 tackles and 3 sacks in 2008. However, there are also some big losses, especially 2 nd round NFL draft pick Paul Kruger. Head coach Kyle Wittingham brought in a lot of junior college recruits this fall and perhaps the biggest was defensive end James Aino, who was the #1 junior college defensive lineman according to one of the national services. While I don’t expect Utah’s defensive line to easily replace Kruger and company, it probably won’t fall off as much as one would expect with only one starter back. At linebacker, all three starters return, led by two seniors: hybrid ‘backer Stevenson Sylvester, who was a 2 nd team All-MWC selection in 2008, and middle linebacker Mike Wright, who led the team in tackles. Utah’s linebackers should be among the best in the Mountain West and should help their new defensive line immensely against the run. The secondary also looks solid as senior safeties Joe Dale (66 tackles, 3 picks in ’08 ) and Robert Johnson (41 tackles, 4 picks) will provide veteran leadership and excellent production. While there will no doubt be struggles, especially early, after losing two starting cornerbacks to the NFL draft, there are some very solid players (including a few highly ranked junior college recruits) waiting their turn and I fully expect Utah to field one of the conference’s better pass defenses. Overall, Utah has been consistently excellent defensively and I expect the Utes to continue that trend despite longtime defensive coordinator Gary Anderson’s departure to take Utah State’s head coaching position. New coordinator Kalani Sitake was the linebackers coach in recent years and he should provide plenty of continuity in terms of both scheme and preparation and that’s a very good thing for the Utes.

The schedule is pretty difficult, featuring six road games. The non-conference portion features a trip to Oregon and then follows up the next week when Louisville comes to Salt Lake City. The conference schedule is also very tough as the Utes have to travel to UNLV, TCU and archrival BYU! While I expect that the Utes will have a solid offense and a very good defense, there are some big questions that I think will hold them back. Can Utah overcome the loss of both their offensive and defensive coordinators? Will new quarterback Terrance Cain produce immediately? Can the Utes navigate a very tough schedule? I think that despite the team’s talent, replacing a lot of key players and solid coaching will be difficult in the face of a very tough schedule. While Utah will definitely make noise in the conference title race, they’re a long shot to repeat as champions and if they win nine games during the regular season I will be impressed.

Utah Big Games: Sept. 19th @ Oregon, Oct. 17th @ UNLV, Oct. 24th vs. Air Force, Nov. 14th @ TCU, Nov. 28th @ BYU

Utah’s Strength:

But now most of that offense is gone and the Utes will have to rely on their defense to win games. With eight starters back on a team that ranked second in the conference, behind TCU, in total defense, the unit should be able to keep this team reaching for more BCS games. The departure of end Paul Kruger and corner Sean Smith is a concern, but Coach Kyle Whittingham has plenty of other weapons to build around. Linebackers Stevenson Sylvester and Mike Wright are ready to become team leaders and the secondary has plenty of talent with safeties Joe Dale and Robert Johnson. The concern is replacing Kruger and his 7.5 sacks and 16.5 tackles-for-loss. Utah tallied over 2.2 sacks per game and finding somebody else to get consistent pressure on the quarterback will be a necessity.

Utah’s Weakness:

The offense lost so much talent from last year’s team. Brian Johnson was a steady quarterback and his favorite targets, Freddie Brown, Brent Casteel and Bradon Godfrey are also gone. So is running back Darrell Mack, who rushed for 504 yards and three touchdowns. The good news is Matt Asiata has proven that he can carry the load on the ground after rushing for a team high 707 yards and 12 touchdowns. Add Sausan Shakerin to the mix and this is a team with a couple quality rushers. With three starters back on the offensive line, led by tackle Zane Beadles, the Utes will have to rely on the ground game while the passing attack adjusts to life without Johnson. At one point Corbin Louks was expected to be the next in line at quarterback, but he is unproven. If he falters, junior college transfer Terrance Cain or freshman Jordan Wynn have to step up.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Utes:

Last year was the year for Utah. The losses on offense are too great for this group to make another undefeated run. The quarterback situation has to sort itself out and Aiona Key needs to develop into a consistent wide receiver. Coach Whittingham has enough talent to win the Mountain West Conference again, but this season will not be quite as magical as last year was.

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