Vanderbilt Commodores 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Vanderbilt 2008 Record: (7-6, 4-4)
Vanderbilt 2008 Bowl: Music City Bowl vs. Boston College (W 16-14)
Vanderbilt Coach: Bobby Johnson (87-92 at Vanderbilt, 87-92 overall)
Vanderbilt Offensive Coordinator: Ted Cain
Vanderbilt Defensive Coordinator: Jamie Bryant
Vanderbilt Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Jared Hawkins, RB, 593 yards
• Passing: Mackenzi Adams, QB, 882 yards
• Receiving: Brandon Barden, TE, 209 yards
• Tackles: Patrick Benoist, LB, 109
• Sacks: Myron Lewis, CB, 5.0; Broderick Stewart, DE, 5.0; Steven Stone, DE, 5.0
• Interceptions: Myron Lewis, CB, 5

Notable Vanderbilt Returning Players: DT Greg Billinger, S Ryan Hamilton, OT Reilly Lauer, LB Chris Marve, DT Adam Smotherman, LB John Stokes, C Bradley Vierling, OT Thomas Welch, WR Justin Wheeler

Vanderbilt Key Losses: K Bryant Hahnfeldt, S Reshard Langford, CB D.J. Moore, QB Chris Nickson, WR George Smith, WR Sean Walker

2008 was the most successful season for the Commodores since 1982. Vanderbilt broke a 26 year bowl drought and finished the season with a Music City Bowl victory to give them a 7-6 record. Bobby Johnson has rebuilt the conference’s biggest bottom-dweller into a tough opponent that simply can’t be overlooked. However, the big question now is whether last year was a sign of things to come or if it was simply an example of the ball bouncing the right way for the Commodores. After all, Vandy finished with a 1-6 skid to finish the regular season. Can a veteran team avoid a similar slide?

On offense, the Commodores simply weren’t very strong last fall, finishing in the bottom 3rd of the league in scoring at only 19 points per game. The strength of the offense this fall will undoubtedly be the line, which returns all five starters. I expect senior tailback Jared Hawkins to be the primary beneficiary of such a strong line and Vanderbilt should definitely be improved on the ground this fall.

However, this was the worst pass offense in the conference and I honestly don’t see much improvement in the cards this year. Sophomore tight end Brandon Barden is the top returning receiver after snagging four touchdowns last year and the entire group of wideouts is a giant question mark. At quarterback, senior McKenzie Adams has proven to be erratic and sophomore Larry Smith is a question mark. I just don’t see a very strong passing game emerging. Overall, Vanderbilt should have a solid run attack but I can’t see their offense being much more effective than last fall.

Defensively, the Commodores are much stronger. Last season’s unit held opponents to under 20 points per game and finished in the top half of the SEC in scoring defense for the 2nd consecutive year. This fall, the entire front seven return and there is a ton of experience on hand. Up front, senior defensive end Broderick Stewart led the team in sacks last fall and the all-upperclassmen unit should improve against the run this fall. At linebacker, senior Patrick Benoist and sophomore Chris Marve both racked up over 100 tackles last fall and should provide strong performances once more. I think Vanderbilt has a strong front seven and will definitely be better against the run.

The secondary is a bit of a concern for me. Despite the return of seniors Myron Lewis and Ryan Hamilton, who combined for 9 interceptions and 180 tackles last fall, the Commodores losses are equally stiff. DJ Moore led the team with 6 picks last fall and replacing the production of safety Reshard Langford will be very tough as well. I think Vanderbilt could be more vulnerable against the pass this fall after losing half of their interceptions from 2008. However, I still think that the Commodores have a fairly tough defense and this unit should keep Vandy in most of their games this fall.

The schedule is a mixed bag. The only BCS opponent out of conference is Georgia Tech, so a 3-1 mark is a strong possibility. However, LSU rotates onto the schedule from the West and the Commodores only have six home games. The entire season also alternates between home and away games, which won’t allow Vandy to build up any momentum at home like most teams. Overall, this is a tough schedule as the ‘Dores draw Ole Miss and LSU out of the West while traveling to Tennessee, South Carolina and Florida.

Last season was such a success early that the Commodores actually even entered the top 25 with their 5-0 start. However, much of their success was made by a major turnover advantage and a solid defensive showing. When the offense began turning the ball over and their ball hawking defense stopped intercepting passes, Vanderbilt fell off quickly. The SEC suffered a bit of a down showing last fall on offense and I think that the Commodores managed to take advantage. Simply put, I don’t think Vandy is any better offensively this fall and that just won’t get it done. The Commodores are a very similar team to year’s edition but I’m afraid a lot of teams in the conference have gotten better and surpassed them. If Vanderbilt hopes to make a 2 nd consecutive bowl game, they’ll have to finish 4-0 out of conference because they have a very daunting schedule and only a moderately talented team to navigate it with.

Vanderbilt Big Games: Sept. 12th @ LSU, Oct. 3rd vs. Ole Miss, Oct. 17th vs. Georgia, Oct. 24th @ South Carolina, Oct. 31st vs. Georgia Tech, Nov. 7th @ Florida, Nov. 14th vs. Kentucky, Nov. 21st @ Tennessee

Vanderbilt’s Strength:

The Commodores certainly did not win games with their offense last year. In fact, usually it took a big play from the defense to even give the offense any hope at all of finding the end zone. The defense has some questions to answer, mostly in the secondary where D.J. Moore and Reshard Langford once roamed. Without those two around, Myron Lewis and Ryan Hamilton better be ready to step up and develop into the leaders of the secondary. Luckily for defensive coordinator Jamie Bryant everybody else is back. All-conference honoree Patrick Benoist, freshman All-American Chris Marve and John Stokes are all back to turn the linebacker corps into one of the best in the conference. Defensive ends Steven Stone and Broderick Stewart both tallied five sacks a season ago and Greg Billinger and Adam Smotherman proved to be capable tackles. All four of those players are upperclassmen and the d-line will get pressure on the quarterback and help out the relatively inexperienced secondary.

Vanderbilt’s Weakness:

If it was not for the stellar defense, Vandy would have been nowhere near a bowl game. The most obvious concern is at quarterback where Mackenzi Adams is battling with Larry Smith and Jared Funk for the starting nod. Adams has the most experience of the bunch and led the team in passing last year. However, it was Smith who led the Commodores to their bowl victory over Boston College. Smith was certainly not that impressive during that game, but a win is a win. The three have fought through the spring and it looks like this battle could go well into the fall. No matter who starts at quarterback they should feel the benefit of a more experienced offensive line. All five starters return and that can be nothing but a good thing for the offense. Running back Jared Hawkins is also back, but it might be the versatility of wide receiver Alex Washington that turns the offense into something at least half way decent.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Commodores:

Washington, a senior who only saw action in two games last year, had a great spring. He is the type of player who can make things happen and that is exactly what this offense needs. The defense should be just as good as it was last year and if the experience, along with a little explosiveness provided by Washington, can make the offense better, Vanderbilt should be back in a bowl game.

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