Wisconsin Badgers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Wisconsin 2008 Record: (7-6, 3-5)
Wisconsin 2008 Bowl: Champs Sports Bowl vs. Florida State (L 13-42)
Wisconsin Coach: Bret Bielema (28-11 at Wisconsin, 28-11 overall)
Wisconsin Offensive Coordinator: Paul Chryst
Wisconsin Defensive Coordinator: Dave Doeren
Wisconsin Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: John Clay, RB, 884 yards
• Passing: Dustin Sherer, QB, 1,389 yards
• Receiving: Garrett Graham, WR, 540 yards
• Tackles: Javeery McFadden, LB, 84
• Sacks: O’Brien Schofield, DE, 5.0
• Interceptions: Niles Brinkley, CB, 4

Notable Wisconsin Returning Players: WR Issac Anderson, RB Zach Brown, OT Gabe Carimi, WR David Gilreath, TE Garrett Graham, S Chris Maragos, C John Moffitt, S Jay Valai

Wisconsin Key Losses: LB Jonathan Casillas, DT Jason Chapman, RB P.J. Hill, G Andy Kemp, CB Allen Langford, LB DeAndre Levy, DT Mike Newkirk, DE Matt Shaughnessy, G Kraig Urbik, OT Eric Vanden Heuvel

Brett Bielema’s first season was an incredible success. The Badgers went 12-1 and finished 2006 ranked 7th in the country! His next season was not quite as fantastic but the Badgers still had a strong year, finishing 9-4 and ranked in the top 25. Unfortunately, Wisconsin’s downward trend continued last fall as the Badgers took their 3-0 start and #9 ranking and threw them away as they blew a 19-0 halftime lead against Michigan in the most inexplicable game I have ever seen. Michigan literally couldn’t move the football in the first half as they had negative yardage but they somehow won the game! The rest of the season was a struggle and Wisconsin finished with a massively disappointing 7-6 record. To say that Bielema is not popular at the moment in Madison is an understatement of epic proportions. The sentiment is that he hasn’t been able to recruit well enough to keep the team at the highest level and his early success was the byproduct of legend Barry Alvarez’s players. Simply put, Bielema needs a strong year to calm the angry masses that are gathering in one of the Big Ten’s most passionate fan bases. Will the Badgers rebound this fall?

One of Wisconsin’s biggest issues in the past two seasons was that they couldn’t find an adequate quarterback. There was also little development as both of their last two starters were caretaker 5th year seniors. That changes this fall as junior Scott Tolzien and freshman Curt Phillips are deadlocked in a battle to win the starting job. Whoever emerges will surely be stronger than last year’s ineffective options, which includes current 3rd stringer Dustin Sherer. The receiving corps should be a strong upgrade from last season as well. Senior tight end Garrett Graham was a 1st team All-Big Ten selection last fall and Wisconsin loves to feature the tight end, so expect another all-conference year from him. Junior David Gilreath should also be a strong contributor after accounting for over 500 yards last season and sophomore Nick Toon, son of Badger great Al Toon, stepped up his game in a major way during the spring and appears primed for a big year. The Badgers should definitely be a much greater threat to throw the football in 2009.

However, Wisconsin’s offensive identity will always be smashmouth as long as Bielema is in charge. The school that produced Ron Dayne embraces the running game like few other places and I think they’ll pleased with their tailbacks this fall. Junior Zach Brown had a great camp and should split carries with sophomore superstar John Clay, who ran for nearly 900 yards and 9 touchdowns last fall. Brown and Clay should produce a dominating 1-2 punch. The Badgers have some work to do rebuilding their offensive line after losing three 3 year starters, but junior tackle Gabe Carimi is one of the conference’s best. I expect Wisconsin to field a strong rushing attack much like they have in each of the past few years. The difference this fall is that I expect the passing game to be an integral part of their arsenal and that means improvement on offense.

Where the Badgers have really fallen off since Bielema’s debut is on defense. His first season produced a unit which held the opposition to 12 points per game but regressed all the way down to 27 points per game last year! Wisconsin was also dead last in the conference in red zone defense in 2008! Unfortunately, I think that their defense might be troublesome once more this fall. The front seven is extremely inexperienced and only five starters are back across the entire unit. Up front, senior end O’Brien Scofield is the lone returning starter after leading the team in sacks last year with five. He’s a good building block but there are a lot of upperclassmen stepping in at defensive tackle who haven’t played much in their careers and I think they’re going to struggle to stop the run. Sophomore JJ Watt has turned heads in camp with his ability rush the passer, giving the Badgers a nice edge presence, but I don’t think this line will be especially successful shutting down the run.

The linebackers are also a big concern despite returning senior Jaevery McFadden, who led the team in tackles last fall. The concern is that most reports out of camp have voiced serious concerns about the athleticism of the other linebackers around him. Throw all of the news about the front seven together and you get a gloomy outlook against the run. There is some good news however; the Badgers have a very strong secondary that returns three upperclassman starters. Junior safety Jay Valai was a 2 nd team All-Big Ten choice and junior cornerback Niles Brinkley led the team with four picks while the unit held opponents to less than 200 yards passing per game. They’ll only be stronger this fall with the return of sophomore cornerback Aaron Henry, who missed last season due to injury but appears ready to claim the open spot opposite Brinkley. Henry was a star two years ago and could be one of the best in the conference if he’s fully healthy. Overall, the Badgers should be very strong against the pass but you can bet that a lot of teams are going to try and run the ball down their throats. Hopefully practicing against their offense’s excellent running game will toughen them up because I’m not optimistic about their ability to stop the run with any consistently.

The good news is that the schedule is about as friendly as Wisconsin could hope for. Their biggest non-conference games come against Fresno State and Hawai’i! On top of their light schedule outside the Big Ten comes a favorable conference run that avoids both Penn State and Illinois! The Badgers’ four conference road games come against Minnesota, Northwestern, Indiana and Ohio State, so most of their difficult games will take place at Camp Randall, an 82,000 seat snake pit for visiting teams.

Overall, I was extremely disappointed in Wisconsin last season. They were done in by poor quarterbacking and the league’s 3rd worst scoring defense. I think that the quarterback solution will be solved somewhat with an improved receiving corps and multiple capable arms ready to go but I’m afraid that their run defense is a major concern. Wisconsin is extremely fortunate to have such a light schedule and though I don’t think that this team is more talented than last year, I think they’ll have a better record. If they can field an average run defense, the Badgers have a chance to exceed my expectations. However, I think Wisconsin is looking at an eight win regular season and they need to win a bowl game to relieve some of the pressure on Coach Bielema.

Wisconsin Big Games: Sept. 12th vs. Fresno State, Sept. 26th vs. MSU, Oct. 3rd @ Minnesota, Oct. 10th @ OSU, Oct. 17th vs. Iowa, Nov. 14th vs. Michigan, Nov. 21st @ Northwestern, Dec. 5th @ Hawai’i

Wisconsin’s Strength:

Part of the problem was the inconsistent play of quarterback Dustin Sherer. Sherer ended up splitting time with the now departed Allan Evridge, but neither of them performed very well. Sherer will likely be the starter again this season and every year of experience should help with his decision making. The other option is redshirt freshman Curt Phillips, a dual-threat signal caller, who was very impressive in the fall. But this is Wisconsin football we are talking about. The quarterback does not have to make plays. The quarterback has to get the ball to a running back; in this case John Clay. The Badgers lost P.J. Hill, who tallied 1,161 yards last season, but Clay rushed for 884 yards and is ready to take over the lead role. When he needs a break, Zach Brown is more than capable of carrying the ball 100 or more times this season. The Badgers lose three starters on the line, but there were plenty of underclassmen who saw some playing time last year who will be ready to step up and fill in the gaps and create space for the running game.

Wisconsin’s Weakness:

The Wisconsin defense was also disappointing last season and now they have to survive without most of their front line. Tackles Jason Chapman and Mike Newkirk are gone and so is end Matt Shaughnessy. For a team that ranked tenth in the conference in sacks per game, finding a pass rush might be very difficult. The situation is no better for the linebackers. Jaevery McFadden is the only returning starter. McFadden led the team with 84 tackles last year, but he needs help from some fresh faces to replace second and third leading tacklers and fellow linebackers DeAndre Levy and Jonathan Casillas. Considering the lack of a pass rush, the secondary was pretty strong last year, only giving up 196 yards per game through the air. Cornerback Allen Langford is a big loss, but getting Niles Brinkley and safeties Chris Maragos and Jay Valai back should make the secondary the best unit on defense.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Badgers:

And if the front four can get pressure on the opposing backfield, the secondary will be great. End O’Brien Schofield led the teams in sacks during the 2008 campaign and could be in for a big senior season. Now the Badgers just need linemen like Dan Moore, Jeff Stehle and Patrick Butrym to step up and turn the front line into a consistent force. If they do, the Badgers can win games with their defense and should have little trouble getting back to a bowl game.

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