Top 3 AFC Matchups Week 5
The Pittsburgh Steelers fell from the ranks of the unbeaten after losing to division rival Baltimore 17-14 last week, leaving only Kansas City at 3-0 as the only team in the NFL without a loss this year. There were also a couple of shocking upsets in the AFC in Week 4 with Cleveland knocking off Cincinnati 23-20, Denver beating Tennessee 26-20 on the road, and Jacksonville kicking a last second 59 yard field goal to upend Indianapolis 31-28.
Here is a look at my top three matchups in the AFC for Week 5 of the NFL season.
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Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (-8) Over/Under: 44 ½
Kansas City has been one of the biggest surprises this year with a 3-0 start after only winning four games all last season. Two of the primary reasons for the turnaround are a third ranked rushing offense led by RB Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones along with a defense that is ranked second in points allowed.
Indianapolis needs to find an answer for a rushing offense that is averaging just 75.5 yards per game, ranking them 29th in the league and a defense that is giving up an average of 149.5 rushing yards per game which ranks them 29th as well.
The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog. The Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite. Kansas City is in a perfect situation to exploit Indianapolis’s inability to stop the run. At the very least the Chiefs cover the eight points.
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Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-7 ½) Over/Under: 38 ½
Denver QB Kyle Orton is off to a blazing start as he leads the NFL with 1,419 passing yards and has six TD’s passes so far. The Broncos’ offense is ranked first in passing yards per game and last in rushing.
Baltimore’s defense has carried this team through the first four games, ranking fifth in points allowed and first in total yards allowed. Offensively, the Ravens are ranked 27th in points scored. QB Joe Flacco has thrown five touchdowns and six interceptions so far this year.
The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the AFC and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Ravens. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the Ravens last five games. Baltimore gets the win and covers the spread as its defense finds a way to shut Orton down.
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San Diego Chargers (-6) @ Oakland Raiders Over/Under: 44 ½
San Diego’s offense has averaged 35.3 points per game since being held to just 14 in its opening day loss to Kansas City. QB Philip Rivers has already thrown for 1,328 yards which is third best in the NFL and the Chargers’ offense is ranked first in the league in total yards per game.
Oakland QB Bruce Gradkowski, who replaced starter Jason Campbell in Week 2 has only completed 54.7 percent of his passes and has an overall rating of 74.7. The Raiders passing offense is ranked 20th in the league but their rushing offense is ranked sixth.
The Chargers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite. The Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. Oakland finds a way to make the AFC West a bit more interesting with an outright win over San Diego.
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I don’t see how an undefeated team coming into week 5 is 8 point underdogs. First time in NFL history maybe? I like Colts to win but KC +8 is my bet.