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Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Sunday October 2 – 4:15PM
Spread (ATS): Green Bay Packers -13.5
Over/Under: 46
Odds courtesy of BetOnline
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Denver Broncos
The Deenver Broncos may be just 1-2 but each of their games has been decided by only 3 points or less. They are not getting blown out obviously but nor are they performing all that well either. The offense hasn’t amounted to much with Kyle Orton at the controls and given the controversy from the pre-season it seems logical that Tim Tebow might eventually be given a shot, if only to see if he can provide a spark like he did last season.
One of the reasons the offense is struggling so much is that they are getting nothing done on the ground. The Broncos are averaging a paltry 76 yards per game with the combo of Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee under-performing. The offensive line is far from great but the lack of production is putting even more pressure on a passing game which is not all that dynamic.
This is a huge mismatch for Denver. Their defense has been better than expected this year but key players like Champ Bailey and Elvis Dumervil are banged up, although probable for Sunday. When you are facing an aggressive, quality offense like Green Bay’s you want to be able to put your best players on the field, especially in terms of pass rushers and defensive backs. 13.5 is a lot of points but I think there is little reason to think the Broncos won’t come out on the losing end.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 3-0 and all that talk of this team being better than last year’s Super Bowl winning squad might just come to fruition. On offense the return of key contributors is definitely making a difference, but on defence the team has not been as sharp as it was a year ago – especially defending the pass. That weak spot is unlikely to be exposed this weekend but is something to keep an eye on.
While the defense has provided some cause for concern the play of injury returnees Ryan Grant and JerMichael Finley have not. Both were fantastic last week with Finley grabbing three TDs and Grant rushing for more than 90 yards. Both have improved the diversity of the Pack offense which is a scary thought for opponents. QB Aaron Rodgers has become an upper echelon QB because he doesn’t force his throws to any one receiver, so giving him more weapons expands the offense exponentially.
As expressed above it seems like Green Bay winning is a no-brainer. I don’t normally like laying so many points with a favourite but when I look at this game I don’t see anyway the Packers don’t score at least 28 points. Keeping Denver to the 14 or so they would need to to cover also sounds very realistic so if I had to play a side than Green Bay is the one.
The odds makers have the Green Bay Packers as a -13.5 point favorite with an over/under of 46.
ATS Pick: Green Bay -13.5
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Green Bay 31 – Denver 17
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Denver Broncos Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver’s last 7 games
- Denver is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
- Denver is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver’s last 6 games on the road
Green Bay Packers Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay’s last 6 games
- Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 7 games at home
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