NFC Top 3 Matchups – Week 9
Just when everyone thought the New Orleans Saints had run out of last year’s Super Bowl magic, they rose up and spanked Pittsburgh 20-10 to reassert themselves as one of the top contenders in the NFC this season. Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and New York remained atop the conference at 5-2 while Dallas and Minnesota continued to drop further and further out of the picture with losses last week. As we head into the second half of the season just about every team still has a chance to win their division, but each week from here on in will begin to knock more and more teams out of the picture.
Here is a look at my top three matchups in the NFC for Week 9 of the NFL season. All odds are provided by BetUS.com.
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Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-8) Over/Under: 44 ½
Tampa Bay is ranked 21st overall and 20th in scoring; averaging just 19.4 points per game, but the emergence of QB Josh Freeman has certainly helped its cause. He has completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,533 yards and has thrown eight TD’s against just three interceptions. The Buccaneers ball-hawking secondary leads the NFL with 14 interceptions.
Atlanta has one of the best balanced offenses in the league. The Falcons are ranked sixth overall; 11th in passing and fifth in rushing. Atlanta’s defense is giving up an average of 260.3 yards per game ranking it 27th in the league. Even though the defense is ranked 23rd overall, it remains tough to score on; giving up an average of just 19 points per game.
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a road underdog and Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite. The edge goes to the Buccaneers given that they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played in Atlanta. Take the Falcons to win outright, but stick with the Bucs to cover with the eight points.
New York Giants (-5 ½) @ Seattle Over/Under: 41 ½
WR Hakeem Hicks, a second-year vet out of North Carolina has emerged as the second coming of Plaxico Burress for New York’s offense. He leads the team with 45 receptions for 525 yards and has eight touchdown receptions on the year. The Giants defense is tied for third in the league in sacks with 24 and is giving up an average of 21.9 points per game.
Seattle’s offense is ranked 30th in the league overall and 28th in scoring. While it is averaging just 17.6 points per game overall, the Seahawks have averaged 26.67 points per game at home. Their defense has been solid against the run; giving up an average of just 100.6 yards per game, but has been vulnerable to the pass; giving up an average of 267.7 yards per game.
New York is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite while Seattle is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss. The Seahawks, playing at home will keep it close enough to cover the 5 ½ points.
Dallas @ Green Bay (-8) Over/Under: 44 ½
Dallas actually has the third ranked offense in the league, but penalties, turnovers, and stupid mistakes have combined to cause most of its losses. The Cowboys’ defense is ranked 14th overall, but is 27th in points allowed; giving up an average of 26.7 points per game. They are also ranked 14th in total sacks and 24th in interceptions. As a team they have a turnover ratio of -5.
QB Aaron Rodgers has already thrown nine interceptions, but he is still fifth in the league in total passing yards with 2,011 and has thrown 12 TD’s. Overall the Packers are ranked 16th in total offense; 10th in passing and 22nd in rushing. They are 14th in scoring; averaging 22 points per game. Green Bay’s secondary has 12 interceptions on the year which is third best in the league and it is tied for third in sacks with 24.
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog and 0-5 ATS in its last five games against the NFC. Green Bay 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite. The favorite in this series is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games between these two teams. Take the Packers minus the eight points in this one.
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