NFL Top Three ‘Over/Under’ Plays- Week 1
The 2011 NFL preseason is finally over and this week the games start counting for real. While most handicappers are busy concentrating on the current point spreads for this week’s schedule of games, it is important to remember that the ‘over/under’ line can offer some tremendous value as well, if you know where to look.
The following are the Top 3 ‘over/under’ plays of the week with the total line provided by BetOnline.com
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Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears Over/Under: 40.5
Atlanta finished the regular season ranked fifth in the NFL in scoring in 2010 with an average of 25.9 points a game, but Chicago only averaged 20.9 points, which was ranked 21st in the league.
Both these teams were stingy on defense with the Falcons finishing the year ranked fifth in the NFL in points allowed; giving up 18 a game. The Bears were right in front of them with the fourth-best average of 17.9 points a game.
The line movement in this game is trending slightly towards the ‘under’ and for good reason. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of Atlanta’s last seven season openers and in the last seven openers for Chicago. The total has also stayed ‘under’ in the last six meetings between the two.
The Pick- UNDER
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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers Over/Under: 38
Looking back at last season, neither of these teams would conjure up the image of an offensive juggernaut when it came to scoring. Heading into this game, there are even more questions for both of these teams on this side of the ball. Tavaris Jackson gets the start at quarterback for Seattle in place of the departed Matt Hasselbeck and Alex Smith is the No. 1 guy in San Francisco despite his inconsistencies in the past. It is obvious that both these offenses would rather run the ball down your throat in an effort to grind out a win, than try and beat you with the pass.
What makes this game lean towards the ‘over’ is a Seahawk’s defense that was ranked 25th last year in points allowed, giving up an average of 25.4 points a game and the 49ers squad that gave up 21.6 points a game. Last season, when the two played each other in San Francisco, the 49ers won 40-21 with the total line closing at 42.5.
The line movement is trending downward in this game as well after opening at 41, but you must take into account some of the past trends to get the true picture in this matchup. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of Seattle’s last 10 games against the NFC and in 10 of its last 11 games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of San Francisco last five games overall and in its last four against the NFC.
Prediction: OVER
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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders Over/Under: 40
These two teams close-out Week 1 in the second game of a Monday night double-header. Both the Broncos and the Raiders did a good job at scoring points last season, but they each had a difficult time keeping the opposition from doing the same. Denver’s defense was especially porous, giving up a league-high 29.4 points a game. Both of the games between the two last season went well ‘over’ the total. Oakland took the first game ‘over’ on its own with a 59-14 win on the road. It almost did the same the second time they met with a 39-23 victory against a closing line of 41.5.
The total has gone ‘over’ in the Raiders last four season openers and in nine of their last 12 games against the AFC. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the Broncos last six home games and in seven of their last nine against the AFC West. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of the last eight meetings between the two, including the last three straight.
Prediction: OVER
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