Top 3 NFL Pointspread Plays – Week 12
Last week nine home teams won their game straight-up, but only seven came out on top against the spread. Seven road teams won straight-up, eight road teams won ATS and there was one ‘push’.
Five dogs managed to win their games ATS with four teams winning their game SU. Houston lost but covered with the points, while Chicago, Washington, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay won their game outright.
Turning to Week 12 there are six home teams getting points out of 16 total games. The largest spread has Cleveland at home giving 10 ½ points to Carolina. The smallest spread has Kansas City as a one-point road favorite over Seattle and San Francisco a one-point road favorite over Arizona
Here is a look at my top three ‘pointspread’ plays for the NFL’s Week 12. All lines quoted are courtesy of betED.com.
Tampa Bay @ Baltimore (-7 ½)
Statistically it is hard to figure out how Tampa Bay is 7-3. The Buccaneers’ offense is 23rd overall and 22 in scoring; averaging just 20.9 points per game. Defensively, they are ranked 16th overall, but 29th against the run. One main thing in their favor this season is a ball-hawking defense that has them at a +7 turnover ratio, the other is they find ways to keep games close.
Baltimore’s offense is ranked 12th overall and 16th in points scored; averaging 23.3 points per game. Defense is still the strength of the Ravens, as they are ranked eighth overall and sixth in points allowed. For as good as this unit has been in generating turnovers, Baltimore has a turnover ratio of -1.
The Buccaneers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on the road and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. The Ravens are 1-3-2 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win and 4-9-1 in their last 15 games of fieldturf. The Pick: Tampa Bay +7 ½
St. Louis @ Denver (-4)
St. Louis is 4-6 but just one game out of first in the NFC West. Four of the six losses have been by a combined 10 points and the Rams’ defense is ranked ninth in the league in points allowed; giving up just 19.8 per game.
Denver has the fourth ranked passing offense in the league, but it is ranked dead last running the ball and 19th in scoring; averaging 21.7 points per game. Defensively, the Broncos are 31st against the run and 30th in points allowed; giving up an average of 28.7 points per game.
The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Broncos are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite and 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. The Pick: St. Louis +4
Kansas City (-1) @ Seattle
Kansas City is 6-4 and currently in first place in the AFC West. It has the No.1 ranked rushing offense in the league behind the duo of RB’s Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. The Chiefs are ranked 10th in scoring; averaging 24.3 points per game.
Seattle is 5-5 and currently in first place in the NFC West. It offense is ranked 29th overall and 27th in scoring; averaging 18.5 points per game. The Seahawks’ defense is ranked 28th overall; 30th against the pass and 14th against the run.
The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Seattle and the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games between these two teams. The Seahawks are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog. The Pick: Kansas City -1
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