NFL Week Thirteen- Top 3 Over/Under Plays of the Week
For the second week in a row the under bet was the best play as defense was the name of the game. Eleven games stayed under the total, while only five games went over. 20 out of 32 teams scored twenty points or less and six teams scored ten or less points. The lowest scoring game was a tie at 23. The Jets pounded out a 17-6 win over the Panthers and the Bengals grinded out a 17-6 win over the Browns. Do not look for either of these games on ESPN Classic anytime in the near future. The most amazing under play was New England@ New Orleans in their big Monday night match-up. The way points were flying around early I thought they would combine for over 70, but the total ended up at 55, a ½ point under the 55 ½ line. Talk about bettor’s anxiety. The scoring was so low last week that there were only two games where both teams scored twenty points or more; Philadelphia beat Washington 27-24 and Indianapolis beat Houston 35-24. I should note that there were 28 points scored in the 4th quarter of the Colts game. As December rolls in and bad weather starts to be a real factor, you have to wonder if this low scoring trend will continue. Another possible factor is injuries to some marquee players. Both Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisberger sat out last Sunday’s game still nursing the effects of a concussion. Both their teams lost and only managed 17 points of offense. Whatever the case may be the fact remains; in the past two weeks 21 out of 32 or 66% of the games stayed under the total. The following are my top three Over/Under picks for week thirteen.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons Current Over/Under 44
Falcon QB Matt Ryan is out of this one but last week Chris Redman showed he is more than capable of running this offense. RB Michael Turner is also banged up so the Falcons will look to TE Tony Gonzalez and WR Roddy White to pick up the slack as they will try and attack the Eagles’ defensive secondary. Philadelphia will most likely be without RB Brian Westbrook and WR DeSean Jackson, but rookie RB LeSean McCoy and WR Jason Avant should be able to fill the void against a Falcon’s defense that is ranked 27th in the league. While the Eagles have been running the ball much more effectively the past few games, look for QB Donovan McNabb to take his fair share of shots downfield to try and create some big plays. Also keep an eye out for Michael Vick to get a chance to make a few plays himself against his old team. I like this game to go OVER.
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals Current Over/Under 42
While both these teams were able to put some points on the board early in the season, lately their offense has struggled to find the end zone. Cincinnati has not scored more than 20 points in their last four games and with the exception of the 38 points they put up against the Browns, Detroit has not breached 20 in their last seven games. By the same token, the Bengals defense has not given up more than 20 points in their last five games. In fact they lead the league in fewest points allowed at 15.8 per game. As we head into December and foul weather begins to play a role, their defense will become even tougher to score upon. Detroit’s QB Matthew Stafford gets an A for effort as he is playing with a dislocated non-throwing shoulder, but he unfortunately he still gets a failing grade for actual performance. I see this game staying way UNDER the current total.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Current Over/Under 46.5
Back in week five Indianapolis held Titan RB Chris Johnson to only 34 yards rushing and held QB Kerry Collins to 164 yards passing in the 31-9 win. That was then and this is now. Since taking over for Collins in week seven, Vince Young as won five straight and Johnson has ran for over 125 yards in each of those wins. Young has got it done with both his arm and his feet as he has thrown for over 1000 yards and ran for 155 more. Last week he engineered a 99 yard drive that included four 4th down conversions and a 10 yard game winning pass to Kenny Britt as time expired. The Colts are a perfect 11-0 but have had to come from behind to win their last five games. One thing about Peyton Manning, he has an incredible ability to score points when he has to. I have this game going OVER on a ton of points scored in the 4th quarter.
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