For the second week in a row the odds makers were right on the mark as there was another even split with the totals bet. Eight games stayed under their total and eight games went over. Previous to this, the under bet was correct 67% of the time over a four week time frame. Scoring is still down across the board but the lines have been adjusted to reflect this. Last week there were a few teams that had no problem scoring points and basically took their game over the total on their own. Green Bay put up 48 points against Seattle and did not even need the Seahawks 10 points to go over the 40 ½ total line. San Diego walloped Tennessee 42-17 in a game that easily went over a line of 47. Carolina ended the Giant’s playoff hopes outscoring them 41-9 taking this game over against a line of 42½. The highest scoring game of the week with a total of 66 points was Chicago’s thrilling overtime win over Minnesota. Defense ruled the day in a few games that stayed way under the total line. Dallas shutout Washington 17-0, Atlanta held Buffalo to a field goal, San Francisco only gave up six points in their win over Detroit, and Jacksonville could only manage one touchdown against New England. With one more week to play in the regular season, the following are my top three Over/Under picks for week 17.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Current Over/Under 47.5
While both teams have already secured a playoff berth, there is still plenty riding on the outcome of this game. If Philadelphia wins they not only lock up the NFC East title, they would have the #2 seed in the conference and a first round bye. If Dallas wins they would claim the East as well and most likely host the Eagles again in next week’s wildcard playoffs. Philadelphia’s big play offense is currently ranked 3rd in points scored and 9th in passing yards per game. The Cowboy’s defense has been stingy in giving up points, only allowing an average of 16.7 per game, but against the pass they are giving up 228.8 yards per game, ranking them 21st in the league playing right into the Eagle’s strength. Philadelphia’s defense is ranked 7th overall, but they ranked 16th in points allowed as they have had their issues in the secondary as well. This game sets up as winner takes all shootout and the team with the ball last getting the win. This one is going OVER.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills Current Over/Under 38
Buffalo has Perry Fewell as their interim head coach and third string QB Brian Brohm as their starter heading into the final game of what has been a dismal season. Indianapolis has long since locked up the #1 seed in the AFC and with last week’s loss to the Jets, no longer has a shot at a perfect season thus no longer has any reason to play their starters for any length of time in this game. While Peyton Manning will probably see some action, it will not be long enough to put any significant amount of points on the board. Buffalo was only able to manage three points last week against Atlanta and the prospect for scoring much more than that this week does not look too promising. Stay UNDER in what should be a real snoozer.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Current Over/Under 45
At 6-9, Chicago has to be disappointed at the way this year unfolded as the expectations were far higher before the start of the season. The fact that they went 1-6 on the road only makes matters worse. In those six losses they only averaged a little over 10 points a game. While everyone talks about QB Jay Cutler’s 26 interceptions, 20 of them came in road games. This is just a totally different team when they are away from the friendly confines of Soldier Field. Detroit is equally as bad at home or on the road so where they play really does not matter. With rookie QB Matthew Stafford at the helm they averaged a little more than 16 points a game. He is out for the year and either Daunte Culpepper or Drew Stanton will get the start in this one. Last week Stanton got a chance to start and only led his team to six points against San Francisco. In his limited playing time, Culpepper has done no better. For both these teams it is time to let this season die a merciful death. The UNDER is the play in this one.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.