We have had two weeks of games to get a feel for each team’s offense and their ability to score, as well as their defense and their ability to keep their opponent out of the end zone. When it comes to offense, teams like New Orleans and San Diego have picked up where they left off last season in terms of scoring points and total yards per game, but teams like Baltimore and Tampa Bay have been somewhat of a surprise ranking high in those categories as well. In terms of total defense the Jets and the Broncos currently lead the way which is somewhat unexpected. Trying to use numbers alone to predict the total combined score of a game is not always the best course of action, as statistics are often deceiving. Rather they should be taken in context and combined with other factors to help guide your over/under picks. The following are my top 3 Over/Under picks for week three.
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions Current Over/Under 38
The Redskins are currently ranked 19th in total offense with a very balanced attack between running and passing the ball. Where they seem to unravel is in the red zone. Last week against the Rams they were 0-5 in the red zone which was the main reason for them only scoring 9 points. Detroit is currently ranked 30th in total offense as they struggle through the growing pains of starting rookie QB Matthew Stafford. They have been able to put some points on the board, but they lack any kind of consistency at this point.
I see a very vanilla match up with these two teams as each will be focused on running the ball and not turning it over. This game plan is perfect for an UNDER bet.
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills Current Over/Under 53
It took two weeks of the Saints scoring 40+ points before we got our first 50 point over. Watching this New Orleans offense operate you cannot afford to give them a short field to work with. Philadelphia learned this the hard way as the Saints made them pay dearly for their mistakes. The scary thing about this team is their defense already has six interceptions with one returned for a TD. Buffalo has played much better than first expected, almost knocking off the Patriots in week one and then beating up on Tampa Bay last week. QB Trent Edwards has been efficient with a 104.9 passer rating, throwing for 4 TDs and 1 interception. If he can find a way to make Terrell Owens a bigger part of the game plan they will be able to put even more points on the board.
Buffalo should be able to score a few touchdowns on Sunday and until someone finds a way to slow this New Orleans offense down I am going with the OVER no matter how high the odds makers set it.
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets Current Over/Under 37
Tennessee is one of the better 0-2 teams is the league. After losing to Pittsburgh in overtime, they were outgunned by the Houston Texans last week. The Titans are currently ranked last against the pass, but fortunately that is not the Jet’s strength. Where they have been strong is against the run where they rank second overall. They will try and force rookie QB Mark Sanchez to beat them with his arm which could lead to some easy turnovers. The Jets’ defense has been the story so far this season. They completely shut down Houston’s Matt Schaub and New England’s Tom Brady only giving up a total of 16 points in the first two games.
This game will be a defensive struggle from start to finish. Points will be hard to come by as most long drives will end in a field goal. Stay with the UNDER in this one.
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