Top 3 Pointspread Plays – NFL Week 4
Trends have a way of changing quickly in the NFL. In Week 2, 10 home teams won against the spread and this past week 11 away teams came away with the win ATS. A trend that did continue was the ‘day of the dogs’. In Week 2, nine teams getting points covered the spread. In Week 3 this number jumped to 11 with eight underdogs winning their game outright. Out of eight home teams getting points, four won ATS.
This week there are only 14 games as four teams have byes; Dallas, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City. With six home teams getting points this week the stage is set for a third straight ‘dog day afternoon’ on Sunday. The big question is do you ride the trend and take the points again or will the favorites finally get the best of it?
Here is a look at my top three ‘pointspread’ plays for the NFL’s Week 4. All lines are courtesy of Sportsbook.com.
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Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans (13 ½)
Carolina has been dreadful so far on offense as it is ranked 31st in points per game and dead last in points per game. The Panthers’ defense has played much better, ranking 14th in total yards allowed and 13th against the pass.
New Orleans is 2-1 and should probably be 3-0, but it has not been nearly as dominant as it was this time last season. The Saints’ offense is ranked dead last in rushing yards per game and their defense is ranked 30th against the run which plays right into Carolina’s minimal strengths.
The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC South and 9-0 ATS in their last nine games in New Orleans. The Saints are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against the NFC. The Pick: Carolina +13 ½
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Indianapolis Colts (-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning is off to a scorching start as he has completed almost 70 percent of his passes for 1,013 yards and nine TD’s in his first three games. The Colts are ranked third in total yards per game and second in points per game.
It has been a rough two weeks for Jacksonville after its opening day 24-17 win over Denver. In Week 2 the Jaguars were thumped on the road by San Diego 38-13 and were completely shutdown at home by Philadelphia 28-3 last week.
The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite. The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six games of this series. The Pick: Indianapolis -7
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New England Patriots (-1) @ Miami Dolphins
New England’s offense is off to an incredible start led by QB Tom Brady’s 758 passing yards and eight TD’s passes. The Patriots are ranked seventh in total yards per game and first in total points; averaging 30 per game. Their defense has been another story as they are ranked 27th in total yards allowed and 28th in total points allowed.
Miami could be the Patriots polar opposite. The Dolphins offense has struggled to put points on the board as they are averaging 17.3 points per game, ranking them 23rd. Their defense is the primary reason for their 2-1 start as they are holding teams to an average of just 17 points; 11th best in the league.
The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the AFC East and 1-4 ATS against Miami in their last five meetings. The Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC East. The Pick: Miami +1
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