Top 3 NFL ‘Over/Under’ Plays- Week 5
For the third week in a row the ‘over’ bet had the advantage with eight games scoring more points than the total line and six scoring less. The total average number of points scored in each game came in at 41.3. The highest average so far this season was in Week 3 at 43.4 and the lowest was in Week 1 at 36.6. Indianapolis and Jacksonville combined for the most points at 59 with the Jaguars coming away with a last second 31-28 win on a dramatic 59 yard field goal by Josh Scobee. The least amount of points scored was 20 in New York’s 17-3 clubbing of Chicago. The Giants sacked Jay Cutler nine times in the Bears first 20 plays.
Here is a look at my top three plays on the Over/Under line for Week 5 in the NFL. All total lines are provided by Sportsbook.com.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals Over/Under: 38
Tampa’s offense is ranked 26th in total yards; averaging 288 per game and 25th in points; averaging 16.7 per game. QB Josh Freeman has only thrown for 544 yards and four TD’s along with two interceptions. RB Cadillac Williams leads the team with 139 rushing yards on 55 carries.
QB Carson Palmer has thrown for over 1,000 yards for Cincinnati’s sixth ranked passing offense, but this has not translated to points as the Bengals are only averaging 19.8 points per game. Last week they rolled up 413 yards against Cleveland and came away with just 20 points.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in the Buccaneers last five road games and in nine of their last 10 games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in nine of the Bengals last 10 games as a home favorite. The Pick: UNDER
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Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys Over/Under: 43
Tennessee’s offense clearly lives and dies with RB Chris Johnson as its passing game is ranked 30th in the league while it is ranked ninth in rushing yards per game. The Titans face a Cowboys’ defense that is currently ranked eighth against the run.
Dallas is averaging 391.7 yards of total offense a game, which is ranked fifth in the league but has only been able to generate an average of 18 points per game, which is ranked 20th. RB Marion Barber is the team’s leading rusher with 125 yards in three games.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in the Titans last four road games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 11 of the Cowboys last 14 games overall and in 12 of their last 17 games following a bye week. The Pick: UNDER
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New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals Over/Under: 45.5
New Orleans has struggled to run the ball with injuries to Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, but the Saints passing game has picked-up where it left off last season, averaging 270.8 yards per game. QB Drew Brees has already thrown for 1,131 yards and seven TD’s.
Arizona has had major problems scoring points on offense, but its defense has been just as bad in keeping opposing teams out of the end zone. The Cardinals are giving up an average of 29.5 points per game, which is ranked next to last in the NFL.
The total has gone ‘over’ in 17 of the Saints last 24 games as a road favorite. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the Cardinals last six games as a home favorite. The Pick: OVER
Last week’s record: 3-0 YTD: 8-4
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