NFL NFC Wild-Card Free Pick
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Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 2, 2010 at 1:00 PM EST on CBS
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The Packers finished the regular season with just three wins in their final six games, but the primary reason for two of those losses was the absence of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was out with a concussion. Rodgers returned for the final two games of the season and promptly led his team to victory by throwing five touchdowns and no interceptions. Green Bay’s defense also rose to the occasion down the stretch and finished the year ranked fifth overall in the league.
The Eagles’ fortunes in this game rest squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Michael Vick. He sat out last week’s season-ending loss to Dallas to recover from the beating he took in their loss to Minnesota the week before. Philadelphia’s defense is going to give up big plays and points like it has all season long. The only chance the Eagles have is to make even more big plays with their high-powered offense. Do not be surprised if this game closely resembles the Packers 51-45 OT loss to Arizona in last year’s Wildcard Round.
Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has stayed ‘under’ in the last four. Both of these quarterbacks will put up some really big plays, but in the end, Vick has one or two more than Rodgers which proves to be the difference.
The odds makers have the Philadelphia Eagles as a -3 point favorite with an over/under of 46.
Team records:
- Green Bay: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS
- Philadelphia: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS
Green Bay Packers most recently:
- When playing in January are 6-4
- When playing on grass are 7-3
- After outgaining opponent are 5-5
- When playing outside the division are 6-4
Philadelphia Eagles most recently:
- When playing in January are 4-6
- When playing on grass are 6-4
- After being outgained are 7-3
- When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few betting trends to consider:
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay’s last 8 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay’s last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
- Green Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games when playing Green Bay
- Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay
- The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia’s last 12 games
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