Brewers vs Red Sox | Prediction & Pick – MLB Pick – June 19, 2011

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MLB Betting Previews- Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox
Saturday, June 19, 2011 at 1:35 PM EST on TBS

Money Line: Brewers -105 / Red Sox  -115
Over/Under: 9

It is a Father’s Day matinee when the Milwaukee Brewers wrap up a three-game weekend set with the Boston Red Sox this Sunday afternoon at Fenway Park in this interleague matchup. Game time is set for 1:35 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on TBS.

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Milwaukee was pounded 10-4 in Friday night’s Game 1 as a 120 road underdog and the total went well ‘over’ the 9.5 line. It was the Brewers fourth loss in their last five games; dropping them to 39-32 on the year and cutting their lead over St. Louis in the NL Central to just one game. They are 25-9 at home, but just 14-23 on the road.

Pitching has been steady but not spectacular for Milwaukee this season as it is ranked seventh in the National League with a 3.77 team ERA. It has made its move to the top of the standings behind a lineup that is sixth in the NL in hitting with a team batting average of .256 and fifth in runs scored with 311. Prince Fielder leads the NL with 60 RBI and has a team-high 19 home runs and Ryan Braun is second on the team with 51 RBI and 15 homers.

Yovani Gallardo will get the start on Sunday for the Brewers. He is 8-3 this season in 15 previous outings with a WHIP of 1.35 and a 3.76 ERA. Last time out, Gallardo went a full seven innings against the Cubs but failed to get the decision; giving up just one earned run on three hits. He has now given up a total of 10 earned runs in his last eight starts.

Boston has vaulted to the top of the AL East standings with nine wins in its last 10 games. The Red Sox are an AL-best 42-27 on the year and have a 2.5 game lead over New York in the division. They are 22-14 on the road and 22-14 at home.

The most powerful lineup in the Majors will take a major hit for this game as Carl Crawford left Friday’s game in the first inning with a strained hamstring and is definitely out while Kevin Youkilis remains questionable with stomach illness. Fortunately, Adrian Gonzalez, who leads the league in hitting with a .352 batting average and RBI with 62, is healthy and ready to go. He leads a Red Sox team that is ranked first in both hitting with a team batting average of .274 and runs scored with 367.

Tim Wakefield gets the start for Boston on Sunday. He was tagged with a loss to Tampa Bay his last time out despite giving up just one earned run on four hits in 7.1 innings. Wakefield is 3-2 on the year with an ERA of 4.39 in 16 appearances that includes seven starts.

The home plate umpire for this game will be Bill Miller, which should only add some more fuel to this potential pitcher’s duel. He has called 13 games this season with nine staying ‘under’ the total. The average runs scored in his games is 7.5 which is below the current league average of 8.44.

Milwaukee is 30-17 as a favorite this season but just 9-15 as an underdog. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of its last seven games and is 34-33-4 overall.

Boston is 12-4 as an underdog and 30-23 as a favorite. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last four games but is 34-28-7 on the year.

Prediction: Head-to-head, the Red Sox have now won the last four games dating back to 2008 heading into Saturday’s Game 2. With two quality pitchers on the mound, the best play in this game could be the ‘under’ but stick with Boston to close this series out with another win at home.

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Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends:

  • Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 7 games on the road
  • Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Boston Red Sox Betting Trends:

  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston’s last 16 games
  • Boston is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
  • Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston’s last 5 games at home

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