When it comes to MLB betting, there seems to be more ways to turn a profit over a 162 game schedule than anywhere else. From split stats, to fan graphs, to how fast a pitcher can throw, there are plenty of indicators that a team should be wagered on or avoided like the plague. Today we will be looking at the sports betting trend, of starting pitchers, and how an actual fast ball, verses a slowed down fast ball can affect a team’s outcome.
Alexi Ogando of the Texas Rangers, Edwin Jackson of the St. Louis Cardinals and Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers have two world series betting things in common, they all are in pennant races, and they all throw over 90 MPH fastballs. Conversely, Livan Hernandez of Washington, RA Dickey of New York Mets, and Jeff Francis of Kansas City also have two MLB issues in common, they throw below 90 MPH heaters and they are all on the outside of pennant races. Meaning to say, if we take philosopher Fredrick Nietzsche’s theories into consideration, we will find, that faster fast balls equates to winning records, while slower fast balls equate to a lack of success.
What this means, when it comes to world series betting, is that understanding how fast a pitcher throws, can be the key difference to backing a winning or losing team. Now while for the most part this theory is accurate, there are occasions where a player with a fast fastball doesn’t have success and slower pitcher may have some success.
For example, Michael Pineda a rookie with the Seattle Mariners averages an impressive 95 MPH on his fast ball. However, because he is a part of the Mariners, Pineda is in dead last in the American League West, and 14th overall in the American League. As a result of throwing such hard fastballs, Pineda is a hit or miss pitcher. Meaning, that he either will strike you out or you can hit the ball for a home run, with rarely any middle ground.
On the other hand, Shaun Marcum of the Milwaukee Brewers throws a fastball that tops out around 87 MPH. Marcum and the Brewers are holding a three game lead over Edwin Jackson and the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central division. Marcum himself is an intriguing pitcher, as while he doesn’t throw the hardest of fastballs, he also doesn’t throw that many fastballs in general. On the year, Marcum averages about 31 fastball an outing, to go along with his 30 changeups an outing.
Furthermore, while Marcum owns an impressive record on the season at 10 and three, the Brewers are actually a disappointing and alarming 11 – 12 when Marcum takes to the mound. As well, the scores in Marcum’s games have gone under in 14 of his 23 starts. Meaning to say, betting on the other pitcher and taking the score to go under the total when he takes the mound, is the best way to go.
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