Phillies vs Nationals | Prediction & Pick

Phillies vs Nationals – MLB Free Pick – Wednesday April 13, 2011

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Philadelphia Phillies (7-3) vs. Washington Nationals (5-5)
Wednesday, April 13, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST on ESPN

Pitching Probables: Roy Halladay vs. John Lannan

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Roy Halladay has picked up exactly where he left off last year. His ERA is under 1, he is striking out a batter an inning and he has offered up just one free pass in two starts.  Short of Jered Weaver I don’t think there is a starter off to a better start and he is the reason there is no real value on the Phillies most of the time he pitches.  Sometimes I like fading an ace like Halladay but he is so consistent and the Phils offense good enough that I wouldn’t recommend that strategy against a team like Washington.  Here is a stat for you:.  The Phillies were 24-11 in games Halladay started as a favourite last year.  With that winning percentage they were only +2.3 units so there wasn’t too much value in those victories.  I hate to go all stathead here but here is another doozy.  In 12 starts against Washington Halladay is 8-1 with an ERA of 1.96.  I think it is obvious where I am leaning.

The Washington Nationals are off to a solid start with a 5-5 record after winning the series opener against Philadelphia last night.  All their games have been within their division so for now they are holding their own.  As they are tonight, the Nationals have been the underdog in every single contest this season.  Despite winning half of them they have only accrued 1.9 units.  With the addition of Jayson Werth this is a team on the rise (sort of) and the value seems to be reflecting that more and more.  Just imagine what people might think if they actually had Stephen Strasburg going every fifth day or what will happen when phenom Bryce Harper joins the lineup.  They might actually be favourites then but they have been a pretty good play so far this year even though I wouldn’t bet them here.

The odds makers have the Philadelphia Phillies as a -1.5 point favorite with an over/under of 7.

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Prediction: Halladay pitches his first complete game of the season and the Phillies win easily.

Score Prediction: Philadelphia – 6 / Washington – 1

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Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends:

• Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games on the road
• Philadelphia is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games on the road

Washington Nationals Betting Trends:

• Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington’s last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 14 of Washington’s last 19 games when playing Philadelphia
• Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia