Reds vs Braves | Prediction & Pick

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Cincinnati Reds (27-26) vs Atlanta Braves (29-24)
Sunday, May 29, 2011 at 8:00 PM EST on ESPN

Spread: Atlanta Braves -1.5
Money Line: Cincinnati Reds +123 / Atlanta Braves -133
Over/Under: 7.5

Pitching Probables: Johnny Cueto vs Jair Jurrjens

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The Cincinnati Reds will look to take their weekend series against the Atlanta Braves after a wild one last night.  The game zoomed past the total before the end of the fourth inning but them it took until the bottom of the 12th for the Braves to win it, exhausting both of the teams bullpens in the process.  Lucky for the Reds they have their most reliable starter on the hill in Johnny Cueto tonight.  Since he was activated from the DL he has been very sharp in 4 starts, never giving up more than 3 runs in any of them.  Cueto also has two wins in three starts against Atlanta in his career but his most recent victory was back in 2009.  Cueto’s challenge will be pitching deep into the game as the Reds are babying him to protect him long term.  With the bullpen shot that might not be an option in this one.

The Atlanta Braves are better than I expected this season and starter Jair Jurrjens is a big part of their success.  While not the most dominant in terms of strikeouts he has yet to give up more than three runs (just once) in any start this season and he is coming off s shutout last time out.  Tempering things a bit is that the Braves have never won a game that he has started against Cincinnati, with the Reds roughing him up on more than one occasion.  Like Cueto he is not always able to get super deep into the ball game but the Braves have one of the more automatic late inning combinations in lefty Johnny Venters and fireballer closer Craig Kimbrel.  The Braves always seem to be able to scratch out a win in close games with yesterday as another fine example.

The odds makers have the Atlanta Braves as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 7.5.

Check out the latest MLB Baseball Odds here.

Prediction:  With Cueto opposite you can get some better value with Atlanta tonight.  I am confident taking the Braves even though Jurrjens doesn’t have great numbers against Cincy in his career. 

Score Prediction: Atlanta – 5, Cincinnati – 3

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Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:

• Cincinnati is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games on the road
• Cincinnati is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road

Atlanta Braves Betting Trends:

• Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games at home
• Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home