Oregon State Beavers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Oregon State 2008 Record: (9-4, 7-2)
Oregon State 2008 Bowl: Sun Bowl vs. Pittsburgh (W 3-0)
Oregon State Coach: Mike Riley (56-42 at Oregon State, 56-42 overall)
Oregon State Offensive Coordinator: Danny Langsford
Oregon State Defensive Coordinator: Mark Banker
Oregon State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, 1,253 yards
• Passing: Lyle Moevao, QB, 2,534 yards
• Receiving: James Rodgers, WR, 607 yards
• Tackles: Keaton Kristick, LB, 82
• Sacks: Stephen Paea, DT, 5.0
• Interceptions: Patrick Henderson, CB, 1

Notable Oregon State Returning Players: TE Howard Croom, P Johnny Hekker, K Justin Kahut, C Alex Linnenkohl, LB Keith Pankey, G Gregg Peat, LB Dwight Roberson

Oregon State Key Losses: S Al Afalava, DT Pernnell Booth, DE Victor Butler, LB Bryant Cornell, CB Brandon Hughes, S Greg Laybourn, OT Andy Levitre, CB Keenan Lewis, WR Shane Morales, DE Slade Norris, G Adam Speer, WR Sammie Stroughter, OT Tavita Thompson

The Beavers continued their recent run of success last fall as they finished the season with a 9-4 record, including handing USC their only loss of the season in a nationally televised game. The Beavers were one game away from their first Rose Bowl berth in forty years but were thwarted by archrival Oregon on the regular season’s final day. Oregon State’s campaign was particularly remarkable as they played one of the toughest schedules in the country and had to rebuild their defense from scratch. Head coach Mike Riley has exceeded expectations so consistently (The Pac Ten media has predicted them, on average, to finish four spots lower than their actual finish in the past three seasons!) that my expectations for Oregon State have risen significantly. While the Beavers enter this season with only eleven starters back and lost seven players to the NFL draft, second highest in college football, I’m completely confident that Riley will once more field a very strong team in 2009.

Offensively, there are a ton of reasons for optimism, the foremost being the presence of the Rodgers brothers, James and Jacquizz. James was the team’s 3 rd leading receiver last fall with 51 catches and 4 touchdowns while also rushing for over 400 yards and 5 touchdowns. Little bro Quizz was even more impressive, rushing for over 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns, earning Pac Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors as a true freshman! Unfortunately, the diminutive pair both ended last season injured so their durability is a concern. At quarterback, seniors Lyle Moevao and Sean Canfield both have significant experience and both were solid when called upon last season. Moevao is the starter and was quite good last year, throwing for over 2,500 yards and 19 touchdowns. He needs to do a better job protecting the football though, as he did throw 13 picks last year. The Beavers’ offensive line also looks to be a solid unit as three starters return. The key will be how well sophomore Mike Remmers handles the transition to left tackle after spending all season at right tackle in 2008.

The biggest concern on offense is at receiver, where the Rodgers brothers represent the majority of the returning experience. Someone is going to need to step up in Riley’s innovative scheme to replace over 1,700 yards and 15 touchdowns worth of lost production from team’s top two departed receivers. Despite some concerns on the line and at wideout, Oregon State still has all of the makings of another very solid offense. If the Rodgers brothers and Moevao stay healthy, I think that the Beavers will be as dangerous this fall as they were in 2008.

Defensively there are some big concerns. Only four starters return from last season, none of whom are in the secondary. However, the Beavers had only three starters back last fall and barely missed a step, so I’m confident in their ability to reload. Unfortunately, this year’s defense lost five players to the NFL Draft, so it will be even more difficult to replace all of the lost production. Up front, junior tackle Stephen Paea is a great building block for a solid line as he made 41 tackles and 5 sacks in 2008. Paea is an absolute load and will be joined by a plethora of experience in the starting lineup as all of last season’s backups return. Riley was especially high on his new starting ends, senior Ben Terry and sophomore Kevin Frahm. Judging by his track record and honesty (more on that in a minute), I tend to believe him. At linebacker, senior Keaton Kristick is the team’s top returning tackler after making 82 stops and 3.5 sacks last season. Joined by juniors Keith Pankey and Dwight Roberson, the linebackers should be solid and return three out of four players from last season’s starting rotation. The Beavers’ solid front seven should be very tough against the run.

The big question is the secondary. Even Riley has expressed his doubts, calling the defensive backfield his biggest concern entering the season. Three of last season’s starters were picked in the NFL draft and they finished tied for 1 st place in the Pac Ten in completion percentage allowed! I’m very concerned about Oregon State’s ability to stop the pass. I expect Oregon State to field their typically tough run defense this season but teams will be targeting them in the pass game early and often.

The schedule is significantly lighter than last season. Last year’s non-conference schedule featured trips to Utah and Penn State and a visit from Hawai’i while this season’s non-conference schedule features a trip to UNLV and visits from PSU and Cincinnati. That PSU, by the way, is D-1AA Portland State, so it is safe to say that the Beavers will have a much easier time outside of Pac Ten play. The conference schedule will be tougher though, as Oregon State has five conference road games and has to travel to Cal, USC and archrival Oregon on a Thursday night! Making things even more difficult is the fact that four out of their final six games are on the road.

The beauty of the Oregon State program is that it has always been the underdog. Their recruiting classes are chronically underrated, the media always picks them to finish worse than they actually do and Riley uses this disrespect to motivate his team to very high levels of achievement. Oregon State has this down to such a science that their 28-12 record is the conference’s 2nd best over the past three seasons and the Beavers are the only team outside of USC to finish the season ranked in each year. I really like the Beavers’ offensive attack this fall and I’m confident that their run defense will be very productive. While I’m definitely concerned about their pass defense, I do think that a light opening schedule will allow Oregon State to get the kinks out early and produce a respectable unit. While I don’t think that the Beavers will be a major contender for the conference title this year because of their tough road schedule, I definitely think that they’ll once more field one of the conference’s toughest teams in the trenches and exceed expectations for the 4 th consecutive season. I can definitely see the Beavers winning ten games this fall.

Oregon State Big Games: Sept. 26th vs. Arizona, Oct. 10th vs. Stanford, Oct. 24th @ USC, Oct. 31st vs. UCLA, Nov. 7th @ Cal, Dec. 3rd @ Oregon

Oregon State’s Strength:

The biggest reason for the success was the emergence of the Rodgers brothers. Jacquizz led the team with 1,253 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns; and all of that was as a freshman. James is the more dynamic threat. He was second on the team in rushing, tallying 408 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. He is also the top returning receiver after catching 51 receptions for 607 yards and four touchdowns. James is also the kick returner and is always a threat to take it all the way. The biggest concern regarding the Rodgers’ is their health. They were both out for the Sun Bowl against Pittsburgh and the result was a boring 3-0 victory. If those two can stay healthy, Oregon State is a fun team to watch.

Oregon State’s Weakness:

The Beavers defense was pretty good during the 2008 season, but now eight starters are gone and there is some major, major rebuilding to be done. Linebackers Keaton Kristick and Keith Pankey both started all 13 games last year and Kristick is poised to emerge as the team’s leader on defense. The linebackers do lose Bryant Cornell, but Dwight Roberson, who actually ranked fourth on the team in tackles despite not earning any starts, can easily fill the void. The problem is the rest of the defense has some major holes. The front four only has tackle Stephen Paea back and defensive coordinator Mark Banker has to find a way to get pressure into the opposing backfield. Last year Oregon State led the conference in sacks, but that is going to be nearly impossible to duplicate without Victor Butler and Slade Norris. The secondary was not filled with household names, but they were a solid, experienced group. All four starters were seniors last year and that really helped the defense. Now players like Patrick Henderson and Tim Clark need to have big senior years.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Beavers:

Quarterback Lyle Moevao is not the most consistent quarterback around, but he can certainly make plays. In addition to throwing for 2,534 yards and 19 touchdowns, he added a couple more trips to the end zone on the ground. Moevao does not have to force the issue when the Rodgers brothers are healthy and decreasing his number of interceptions is a must. However, Moevao might have less time to operate this year due to the absence of three starters on the line, most notably left tackle Andy Levitre. If Moevao feels pressure, he might make poor decisions and Oregon State has to keep the turnover margin in the black if they want to come close to repeating the success of 2008.

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