California Golden Bears 2009 Football Betting Preview

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California 2008 Record: (9-4, 6-3)
California 2008 Bowl: Emerald Bowl vs. Miami (W 24-17)
California Coach: Jeff Tedford (59-30 at California, 59-30 overall)
California Offensive Coordinator: Andy Ludwig
California Defensive Coordinator: Bob Gregory
California Returning Stats Leaders:

  • Rushing: Jahvid Best, RB, 1,580 yards
  • Passing: Kevin Riley, QB, 1,360 yards
  • Receiving: Nyan Boateng, WR, 439 yards
  • Tackles: Mike Mohamed, LB, 87
  • Sacks: Tyson Alualu, DE, 6.0
  • Interceptions: Syd’Quan Thompson, CB, 4

Notable California Returning Players: OT Donovan Edwards, S Marcus Ezeff, CB Darian Hagan, DT Derrick Hill, S Brett Johnson, DE Cameron Jordan, OT Mitchell Schwartz, WR Verran Tucker, RB Shane Vereen, LB Eddie Young

California Key Losses: LB Anthony Felder, LB Zack Follett, QB Nate Longshore, C Alex Mack, G Noris Malele, TE Cameron Morrah, LB Worrell Williams

California 2009 Preview, Picks, & Odds.

Shocked that I have Cal upending mighty USC to win the conference championship this year? Frankly, I am as well. However, the Golden Bears have become a consistently strong team under head coach Jeff Tedford and their seven consecutive bowl berths is the conference’s second longest streak behind the Trojans. With such consistency, it isn’t a surprise when every few years the program produces a particularly strong team that competes for the conference title and I think that 2009 could be one of those years in Berkeley. Tedford’s squad has 15 starters back from last season and has a particularly well-scheduled homecoming date with the Trojans. Could this be the first year since 2002 that USC isn’t the Pac Ten’s representative in the Rose Bowl?

Tedford made his reputation as a quarterback guru before taking over at Cal, so his offenses are consistently solid. Everything in 2009 revolves around superstar junior tailback Jahvid Best, who ran for nearly 1,600 yards last season and 15 touchdowns. Best is a Heisman Trophy candidate and could very well be the top tailback in the country. He will run behind a solid O-Line which returns three starters from last fall. While former center Alex Mack, a 2nd round NFL draft pick, will be difficult to replace, the Bears have both tackles back and their guards both started during the 2008 season. I expect Best and his excellent backup, sophomore Shane Vereen, to have plenty of room to roam this year.

At quarterback, Tedford had difficulty settling on a starter the past two seasons and I think it negatively affected the team’s production and cohesiveness. This fall, junior Kevin Riley is the unquestioned starter and I think that he will have a big year now that he doesn’t have to worry about being removed after one bad series. Riley threw for 1,360 yards last fall and 14 touchdowns against only 6 interceptions and I expect him to have a strong 2009. His receivers need to be more consistent catching passes but seniors Nyan Boateng and Verran Tucker both have big play potential. I expect the Golden Bears to have a very powerful rushing attack this season and Riley should have a big year off of play action. This could be Cal’s best season on offense since the Green Bay Packers’ starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers was under center.

Defensively, Cal fielded one of their best units in the Tedford era last fall. Eight starters are back from that excellent squad and they should be very strong up front. Cal became the first team in the conference to run a 3-4 defense last season and all three starters are back on the defensive line. Senior tackle Tyson Alualu had 6 sacks last year and was a 2nd team All-Pac Ten selection. Despite a lot of injuries, this group anchored a very good run defense and I think that this veteran unit is one of the best in the league. I wonder if the Bears won’t employ some 4-3 technique this year with so much talent up front, especially since the big concern is behind them at linebacker, where only one starter returns. Junior Michael Mohamed was the Bears’ best all-around linebacker in 2008 as he racked up 87 tackles, 3 sacks and 3 picks while senior Eddie Young was solid in part time duty, finishing with 40 tackles. Both should be very productive this fall. Also keep an eye on sophomore Mychal Kendricks, who impressed with his athleticism last season. I don’t think that Cal’s linebacking is going to drop off as badly as many people seem to believe and I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar production to last fall behind a very strong line. I think Cal will be very good against the run this year.

That’s bad news for the opposition because their secondary is excellent. All four starters are back after allowing less than 200 yards passing per game in 2008. The star of the group is senior cornerback Syd’Quan Thompson, who was a 1 st team All-Pac Ten choice last season after making 70 tackles, 2 sacks and snagging 4 picks. However, all four starters are ball hawks as they combined for 12 picks last season and this is one of the country’s best defensive backfields. Overall, Cal has an excellent defense from front to back and should be one of the league’s best this season.

The schedule is an interesting mix. The non-conference portion features two BCS opponents as the Bears play Maryland and Minnesota. Maryland is a revenge game as Cal lost to the Terps last season after traveling cross country to play a noon game, which rarely occurs when West Coast teams head east as that’s a 9 AM start time back home! The Terps jumped out to a big lead before Cal woke up and held on for the upset. Expect Cal to be ready and angry when they open the season against Maryland at a reasonable hour. Minnesota is an interesting game as the Gophers are opening their new stadium this season but I think Cal is looking at a 3-0 record outside of the Pac Ten. The Bears only have four conference home games but they’ve posted unbeaten home records in three of the last five years and they host the all-important matchup with USC. I’ll elaborate more on this at the end of the preview, but Cal has an enormous chance at defeating USC based on the Trojans’ recent history. Factor in that the Golden Bears are an excellent football team and I think that USC could be in trouble. The Bears also host Arizona and Oregon State and their only two road games of note are at Oregon and archrival Stanford. Oregon will be a stiff test as Autzen Stadium is quite the intimidating venue and the Bears had better not be looking forward to USC the next week.

Overall, Cal is a very impressive football team in every aspect. The Golden Bears will have an awesome running game and an improved passing attack on offense and an extremely talented defense that should stand toe to toe with USC for the title of the Pac Ten’s best. I will be surprised if the Bears aren’t a top fifteen team in the national preseason polls and I personally think that they are one of the ten best teams in the country. After so much dominance from USC, I know I will be going against the grain with this choice but I am picking the Cal Golden Bears to win the 2009 Pac Ten Championship and play in their first Rose Bowl since 1958.

California Big Games: Sept. 19th @ Minnesota, Sept. 26th @ Oregon, Oct. 3rd vs. USC, Oct. 17th @ UCLA, Nov. 7th vs. Oregon St, Nov. 14th vs. Arizona, Nov. 21st @ Stanford

2009 California Football Schedule | 2009 PAC 10 Football Preview
California Sportsbooks

California’s Strength:

Best will get all the hype, but it is the defense that will win games. The unit has to replace three of their four linebackers, but everybody else is back. Cal ranked 14 th in the nation in sacks last year and Tyson Alualu and Cameron Jordan will continue to get into the backfield. The secondary is absolutely loaded with experienced upperclassmen. Corner Syd’Quan Thompson is the best defensive player on the team and Marcus Ezeff has emerged as a quality safety whose best days are still in front of him. Surely the Golden Bears will miss Anthony Felder, Zack Follett and Worrell Williams, but Eddie Young is ready to take over the leadership role among the linebackers and Mike Mohamed will be the next superstar linebacker at Cal.

California’s Weakness:

The biggest obstacle standing between Best and serious Heisman Trophy consideration is the rest of his offense. Quarterback Kevin Riley is the guy now that Nate Longshore is gone. Those two split time last year and neither was very consistent. Riley barely completed over 50 percent of his passes, but that was not entirely his fault. The young receivers did not help much and players like Alex Lagemann and Marvin Jones really have to grow up in a hurry. Even the returning upperclassmen, Verran Tucker and Nyan Boateng, were inconsistent receiving options. That has to change or the Bears offense will be extremely predictable…and even Best cannot be very effective if everybody knows that he is going to get the ball on every first and second down.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Golden Bears:

That leads into what may be the most important group on the team. The offensive line lost Alex Mack and Noris Malele. Mack was one of the best centers in the game and his leadership will be very difficult to replace. The offense might not look too much different without him, but without his leadership in the middle of the line, California’s offense could be in trouble. Chris Guarnero has the unenviable job of trying to replace Mack, but he will need help from the rest of the line. If the big guys cannot give Best any room to run, the offense will be stuck and that Heisman talk will go away very quickly.

2008 California Golden Bears Team Stats:

  • Rushing Offense: 186.23
    (29th in nation, 4th in conference)
  • Passing Offense: 189.77 (83, 7)
  • Total Offense: 376.00 (47, 5)
  • Scoring Offense: 32.62 (27, 4)
  • Rushing Defense: 122.23 (25, 3)
  • Pass Defense: 193.00 (38, 5)
  • Total Defense: 315.23 (26, 4)
  • Scoring Defense: 19.92 (23, 2)
  • Turnover Margin: 1.15 (7, 1)
  • Sacks: 2.69 (14, 4)
  • Sacks Allowed: 1.92 (61, 5)

California Betting Odds

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