SEC – 2009-2010 Basketball Betting Preview

SEC East Division

The South Carolina Gamecocks should have little trouble getting to the Big Dance this time around. For the Gamecocks to get into the black for bettors after going 10-14-2 ATS (21-10 SU) last season, they’ll need to put up a consistent effort on a nightly basis.

With no key losses from last year’s 21-13 (14-17-1 ATS) squad, Bruce Pearl has a gem on his hands at Tennessee. A deep run in March is hardly out of the question. If any team can knock off Kentucky in the SEC East, it’s the Vols, listed as +500 underdogs to cash the division outright

Florida will suffer at the window because of public perception. People remember the back-to-back national championship years, but the latest Gator incarnation is a far cry from those teams. Expect the Gators to hover around the .500 mark against the number.

Expectations surrounding Kentucky basketball are always sky high and it’s easy to see why the Wildcats are priced at +450 co-favorites to win their first national title since 1997. While Kentucky has the talent to cut down the nets in Indianapolis, bettors should be wary against the spread.

The Vanderbilt Commodores suffered through a combination of rebuilding and injuries last season to finish 19-12 (12-15-1 ATS), but now everyone has another year of valuable experience. With public bettors focusing heavily on Kentucky, Tennessee, and even South Carolina, don’t be at all surprised if Vandy I ends up being the most profitable wager of the four.

The Bulldogs like where they’re headed, but the reality is they were the worst wager in the SEC last season at 9-15-1 ATS (12-20 SU). Life doesn’t figure to get any easier for Georgia this season, but the hope is the Bulldogs will be disciplined enough to keep games closer than oddsmakers anticipate.

SEC West Division

LSU won the conference crown last season, but it’ll have a hard time getting to the top of the West Division in 2009-10. They’ll need to rely heavily on senior forward Tasmin Mitchell in order to make some noise.

Jeff Lebo saved his job at Auburn last season, as the Tigers defied pundits and wise guys alike to go an impressive 21-8 ATS (24-12 SU). To keep the good times rolling, Lebo needs to find a way to replace Korvotney Barber, Rasheem Barrett, and Quantez Robertson, all of whom played big roles in last , season’s resurgence.

The days when Mississippi State flew under the radar appear to be over. The Bulldogs won the conference tournament last season after going 23-13 (18-11-1 ATS) throughout the year and are now priced as a +175 favorite to win the SEC West

Alabama has some good pieces, but is likely a year or two away from seriously contending in the SEC. The Crimson Tide boasts four returning starters and a new head coach in Anthony Grant, who won a national title as an assistant with Florida in 2006.

Oddsmakers expect Mississippi to be Mississippi State’s main challenger in the SEC West, listing it as a +250 dog to cash the division outright this year. Ole Miss boasts one of the league’s best incoming classes, but they’ll have to make it all fit together to be profitable.

Arkansas returns all five starters from last year’s 14-16 (11-12 ATS) team that finished last in the conference. The Razorbacks should be much improved, although that figures to result in only modest returns for bettors because of the strength of the conference.

OUR 2009-2010 SEC STANDINGS PREDICTIONS & PICKS

EAST:
1. Kentucky Wildcats
2. Tennessee Volunteers
3. South Carolina Gamecocks
4. Vanderbilt Commodores
5. Florida Gators
6. Georgia Bulldogs

WEST:
1. Mississippi State Bulldogs
2. Ole Miss Rebels
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
4. Auburn Tigers
5. Arkansas Razorbacks
6. LSU Tigers

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